Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 11
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
14 – 10
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.74 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
19.6%
Draw
19.7%
Bayern Munich win
60.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–2.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–2.00 | 1-2 9% | 69% | 68% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 2.74 xGBayern Munich 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Patrik Schick |
| 8' |
 Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 23' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 23' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 30' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Montrell Culbreath | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 44' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 50' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 53' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ezequiél Fernández |
| 57' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrik Schick |
| 57' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 58' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Malik Tillman |
| 65' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 66' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ezequiél Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Robert Andrich |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leon Goretzka |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 72' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 77' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ezequiél Fernández | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 85' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 85' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.74 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Bayern Munich |
Josip Stanisic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 89' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ezequiél Fernández |
| 89' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 91' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Exequiel Palacios | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonas Hofmann |
| 95' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edmond Tapsoba |
| 97' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 99' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Exequiel Palacios |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Malik Tillman AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.92 |
| Ezequiél Fernández MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.75 |
| Ernest Poku DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.70 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.89 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1.32 |
| Janis Blaswich GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Aleix García MC | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Montrell Culbreath DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.56 | 0.96 |
| Martin Terrier AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Maza Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.16 | 0.96 |
| Christian Kofane Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Exequiel Palacios Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Jonas Hofmann Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| Nathan Tella Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.86 | 1.15 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.64 |
| Sven Ulreich GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Konrad Laimer DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 88 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.12 | 1.00 |
| Lennart Karl AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Harry Kane Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Leon Goretzka Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Kim Min-Jae Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |