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Bayer Leverkusen v Bochum — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 28 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Bayer Leverkusen
3–1
2.08 – 0.70 xG
Bochum
Shots
14 – 8
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 3
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.94 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.92 – +0.28

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Bayer Leverkusen win
74.2%
Draw
17.8%
Bochum win
8.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLDLWDWWWL last 10 scored 22 from 24.2 xG conceded 17 from 16.6 xG

Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLLLLLDDLW last 10 scored 10 from 12.5 xG conceded 20 from 18.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 2.58–0.80 0% 0% 0% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.72.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Aleix García 19' — goalFelix Passlack 25' — goalVictor Boniface 59' — goalAmine Adli 86' — goal
Bayer Leverkusen 2.08 xGBochum 0.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Victor Boniface 3' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jeremie Frimpong 8' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Aleix García 19' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Felix Passlack 25' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Giorgos Masouras 25' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Nordi Mukiele 33' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tim Oermann 39' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Tah 43' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Victor Boniface 45' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Patrik Schick 51' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Matús Bero 52' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Exequiel Palacios 54' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Álex Grimaldo 54' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Victor Boniface 59' — Goal (0.90 xG, Set Piece)Aleix García 62' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Philipp Hofmann 64' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Tom Krauß 70' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ibrahima Sissoko 75' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jeremie Frimpong 77' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Amine Adli 86' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Dani de Wit 89' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Granit Xhaka 91' — Shot On Post (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right Bochum attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Bayer Leverkusen Victor Boniface 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Aleix García
8' Bayer Leverkusen Jeremie Frimpong 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Exequiel Palacios
19' Bayer Leverkusen Aleix García 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Exequiel Palacios
25' Bochum Felix Passlack 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
25' Bochum Giorgos Masouras 0.38 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
33' Bayer Leverkusen Nordi Mukiele 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Exequiel Palacios
39' Bochum Tim Oermann 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ibrahima Sissoko
43' Bayer Leverkusen Jonathan Tah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Aleix García
45' Bayer Leverkusen Victor Boniface 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Aleix García
51' Bayer Leverkusen Patrik Schick 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
52' Bochum Matús Bero 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gerrit Holtmann
54' Bayer Leverkusen Exequiel Palacios 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
54' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nordi Mukiele
59' Bayer Leverkusen Victor Boniface 0.90 Set Piece Right Foot Goal Piero Hincapié
62' Bayer Leverkusen Aleix García 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Granit Xhaka
64' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.09 From Corner — Missed Shot Matús Bero
70' Bochum Tom Krauß 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gerrit Holtmann
75' Bochum Ibrahima Sissoko 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tom Krauß
77' Bayer Leverkusen Jeremie Frimpong 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Aleix García
86' Bayer Leverkusen Amine Adli 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Goal Exequiel Palacios
89' Bochum Dani de Wit 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Matús Bero
91' Bayer Leverkusen Granit Xhaka 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Emiliano Buendía

Players

Bayer Leverkusen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Victor Boniface FW 90 1 0 3 0 0.98 0.00 0.83
Jeremie Frimpong DMR 90 0 0 2 0 0.44 0.00 0.51
Granit Xhaka MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.03 0.63
Aleix García MC 90 1 0 2 4 0.08 0.49 0.58
Exequiel Palacios MC 90 0 2 1 4 0.06 0.47 0.98
Nordi Mukiele DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.01 0.16
Jonathan Tah DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.17
Álex Grimaldo DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.22
Lukas Hradecky GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Piero Hincapié DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.90 0.13
Patrik Schick FW 72 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Amine Adli Sub 18 1 0 1 0 0.34 0.00 0.73
Emiliano Buendía Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Robert Andrich Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arthur Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bochum

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Giorgos Masouras FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.38 0.00 0.39
Matús Bero MC 90 0 0 1 2 0.10 0.14 0.14
Felix Passlack DR 90 1 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.05
Tom Krauß MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.11
Tim Oermann DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.03
Maximilian Wittek DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Ivan Ordets DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Timo Horn GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ibrahima Sissoko MC 86 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.01 0.04
Philipp Hofmann FW 76 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.01
Gerrit Holtmann DL 76 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.12
Moritz Broschinski Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Myron Boadu Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Dani de Wit Sub 4 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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