Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.45
Goals − xG
-0.08 – +0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
50.2%
Draw
25.0%
Borussia Dortmund win
24.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.72–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.49 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 1.08 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 12' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 20' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 21' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonas Hofmann | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Malik Tillman |
| 37' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 40' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Aaron Anselmino | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Daniel Svensson |
| 44' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 54' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.25 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Aleix García |
| 55' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 55' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix García |
| 55' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Robert Andrich |
| 58' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.33 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 62' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 63' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Loic Bade | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 64' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Goal | Fabio Silva |
| 68' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonas Hofmann | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 71' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 72' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Edmond Tapsoba |
| 74' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Silva |
| 82' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ibrahim Maza |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Poku AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| Ibrahim Maza MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Loic Bade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Malik Tillman AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Jonas Hofmann DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Christian Kofane Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Martin Terrier Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Claudio Echeverri Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarell Quansah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Tella Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Brandt AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Anselmino DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Karim Adeyemi AMC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.03 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Jobe Bellingham Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yan Couto Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramy Bensebaini Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |