Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 21 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen

1–1

1.95 – 1.30 xG

Borussia M.Gladbach

Shots

13 – 13

On target

8 – 7

Shots in box

10 – 10

xG per shot

0.15 – 0.10

Set-piece xG

1.08 – 0.39

Goals − xG

-1.01 – -0.30

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Bayer Leverkusen win

54.5%

Draw

23.4%

Borussia M.Gladbach win

22.1%

552322

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWWLWWLDLW last 10 scored 25 from 28.0 xG conceded 17 from 18.3 xG

Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DDLDDWLWLL last 10 scored 15 from 14.1 xG conceded 17 from 20.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	552322	2.02–1.23	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	651917	2.31–1.09	2-1 10%	66%	60%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Bayer Leverkusen 2.01 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.30 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Bayer Leverkusen attacking right Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
2'	Bayer Leverkusen	Edmond Tapsoba	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Álex Grimaldo
8'	Bayer Leverkusen	Malik Tillman	0.07	Set Piece	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ben Seghir
8'	Bayer Leverkusen	Patrik Schick	0.58	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Álex Grimaldo
12'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Kevin Stöger	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Shuto Machino
12'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Yannick Engelhardt	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Shuto Machino
15'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Shuto Machino	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
19'	Bayer Leverkusen	Álex Grimaldo	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Edmond Tapsoba
36'	Bayer Leverkusen	Ibrahim Maza	0.03	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Ben Seghir
37'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Shuto Machino	0.01	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	Rocco Reitz
39'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Joe Scally	0.26	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Jens Castrop
46'	Bayer Leverkusen	Ben Seghir	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Edmond Tapsoba
49'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Shuto Machino	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Kevin Stöger
55'	Bayer Leverkusen	Ibrahim Maza	0.09	Set Piece	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Loic Bade
56'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Kevin Stöger	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Jens Castrop
59'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Shuto Machino	0.03	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Kevin Stöger
61'	Bayer Leverkusen	Ibrahim Maza	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Lucas Vázquez
67'	Bayer Leverkusen	Patrik Schick	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Álex Grimaldo
68'	Bayer Leverkusen	Patrik Schick	0.34	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Aleix García
69'	Bayer Leverkusen	Malik Tillman	0.46	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Patrik Schick
69'	Bayer Leverkusen	Patrik Schick	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Ernest Poku
72'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Kevin Stöger	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Lukas Ullrich
76'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Joe Scally	0.28	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Shuto Machino
77'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Joe Scally	0.02	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Lukas Ullrich
78'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Florian Neuhaus	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Nico Elvedi
82'	Bayer Leverkusen	Ibrahim Maza	0.15	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Álex Grimaldo
91'	Borussia M.Gladbach	Haris Tabakovic	0.38	From Corner	—	Goal	Charles Herrmann

Players

Borussia M.Gladbach

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Joe Scally DMR	90	0	0	3	0	0.56	0.00	0.56
Yannick Engelhardt MC	90	0	0	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.23
Nico Elvedi DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.42
Moritz Nicolas GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Lukas Ullrich DML	90	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.09	0.66
Kevin Diks DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.10
Rocco Reitz MC	89	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.40
Fabio Chiarodia DC	89	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.15
Kevin Stöger AMC	83	0	0	3	2	0.16	0.04	0.23
Shuto Machino FW	83	0	0	4	3	0.09	0.43	0.52
Jens Castrop AMC	75	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.28	0.32
Florian Neuhaus Sub	15	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.11
Haris Tabakovic Sub	7	1	0	1	0	0.38	0.00	0.00
Giovanni Reyna Sub	7	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Grant-Leon Ranos Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Charles Herrmann Sub	1	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.38	0.00