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Bayer Leverkusen v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 16 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Bayer Leverkusen
1–1
3.09 – 1.63 xG
Hamburger SV
Shots
26 – 20
On target
7 – 6
Shots in box
19 – 11
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.84 – 0.26
Goals − xG
-2.09 – -0.63

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Bayer Leverkusen win
71.0%
Draw
16.9%
Hamburger SV win
12.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLDLWDWWWL last 10 scored 22 from 24.2 xG conceded 17 from 16.6 xG

Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLLLWWWL last 10 scored 12 from 11.8 xG conceded 20 from 18.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 2.43–0.90 0% 0% 0% Home ✗
dc-xg-oos 2.95–0.95 2-0 9% 75% 58% Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.72.63.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Fábio Vieira 60' — goal
Bayer Leverkusen 3.09 xGHamburger SV 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Fábio Vieira 4' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Maza 7' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Patrik Schick 7' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Rayan Philippe 9' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Álex Grimaldo 14' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Exequiel Palacios 15' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Nicolás Capaldo 16' — Shot On Post (0.16 xG, Open Play)Nicolai Remberg 19' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rayan Philippe 19' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Maza 20' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Patrik Schick 24' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Ibrahim Maza 26' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Albert Sambi Lokonga 29' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Albert Grønbæk 34' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Albert Grønbæk 39' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Albert Sambi Lokonga 40' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Otto Stange 41' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Rayan Philippe 41' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Robert Andrich 44' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Edmond Tapsoba 46' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Ibrahim Maza 46' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Malik Tillman 46' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jarell Quansah 47' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Ibrahim Maza 48' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Maza 52' — Missed Shot (0.47 xG, Set Piece)Fábio Vieira 53' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Albert Sambi Lokonga 54' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Jarell Quansah 57' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrik Schick 57' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Fábio Vieira 60' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Aleix García 63' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Nicolás Capaldo 64' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrik Schick 69' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Aleix García 71' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jarell Quansah 77' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Set Piece)Nicolai Remberg 77' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Set Piece)Exequiel Palacios 80' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Luka Vuskovic 84' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Fabio Baldé 85' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Fabio Baldé 92' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Ben Seghir 93' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nicolás Capaldo 94' — Saved Shot (0.55 xG, Open Play)Jonas Hofmann 95' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Álex Grimaldo 95' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Maza 97' — Blocked Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Álex Grimaldo 97' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right Hamburger SV attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Luka Vuskovic
7' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Álex Grimaldo
7' Bayer Leverkusen Patrik Schick 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Exequiel Palacios
9' Hamburger SV Rayan Philippe 0.04 Open Play — Missed Shot —
14' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.07 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot —
15' Bayer Leverkusen Exequiel Palacios 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot —
16' Hamburger SV Nicolás Capaldo 0.16 Open Play — Shot On Post Rayan Philippe
19' Hamburger SV Nicolai Remberg 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
19' Hamburger SV Rayan Philippe 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
20' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Malik Tillman
24' Bayer Leverkusen Patrik Schick 0.76 Left Foot Saved Shot —
26' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Álex Grimaldo
29' Hamburger SV Albert Sambi Lokonga 0.05 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Fábio Vieira
34' Hamburger SV Albert Grønbæk 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Otto Stange
39' Hamburger SV Albert Grønbæk 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
40' Hamburger SV Albert Sambi Lokonga 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Rayan Philippe
41' Hamburger SV Otto Stange 0.12 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Luka Vuskovic
41' Hamburger SV Rayan Philippe 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot —
44' Bayer Leverkusen Robert Andrich 0.08 From Corner — Missed Shot Aleix García
46' Bayer Leverkusen Edmond Tapsoba 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
46' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
46' Bayer Leverkusen Malik Tillman 0.06 Open Play — Saved Shot —
47' Bayer Leverkusen Jarell Quansah 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Aleix García
48' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Malik Tillman
52' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.47 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Exequiel Palacios
53' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nicolás Capaldo
54' Hamburger SV Albert Sambi Lokonga 0.07 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Jordan Torunarigha
57' Bayer Leverkusen Jarell Quansah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Edmond Tapsoba
57' Bayer Leverkusen Patrik Schick 0.06 Open Play — Saved Shot Ibrahim Maza
60' Hamburger SV Fábio Vieira 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Goal Nicolás Capaldo
63' Bayer Leverkusen Aleix García 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot —
64' Hamburger SV Nicolás Capaldo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fábio Vieira
69' Bayer Leverkusen Patrik Schick 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Arthur
71' Bayer Leverkusen Aleix García 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Arthur
77' Bayer Leverkusen Jarell Quansah 0.13 Set Piece — Missed Shot Aleix García
77' Hamburger SV Nicolai Remberg 0.00 Set Piece — Own Goal —
80' Bayer Leverkusen Exequiel Palacios 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jonas Hofmann
84' Hamburger SV Luka Vuskovic 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
85' Hamburger SV Fabio Baldé 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nicolás Capaldo
92' Hamburger SV Fabio Baldé 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Albert Grønbæk
93' Bayer Leverkusen Ben Seghir 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
94' Hamburger SV Nicolás Capaldo 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot William Mikelbrencis
95' Bayer Leverkusen Jonas Hofmann 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
95' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Arthur
97' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.42 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Vázquez
97' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —

Players

Bayer Leverkusen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ibrahim Maza AMC 90 0 0 7 1 1.31 0.06 0.87
Patrik Schick FW 90 0 0 4 0 0.98 0.00 0.25
Jarell Quansah DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.21 0.00 0.05
Exequiel Palacios MC 90 0 0 2 2 0.15 0.59 0.55
Álex Grimaldo DML 90 0 0 3 2 0.13 0.17 0.40
Edmond Tapsoba DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.02 0.11
Mark Flekken GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aleix García MC 86 0 0 2 3 0.07 0.26 0.30
Robert Andrich DC 64 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.09
Malik Tillman AMC 64 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.20 0.35
Montrell Culbreath DMR 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Jonas Hofmann Sub 26 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.08 0.11
Ben Seghir Sub 26 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.05
Arthur Sub 26 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.10 0.18
Lucas Vázquez Sub 4 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.42 0.42

Hamburger SV

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nicolás Capaldo DMR 90 0 1 3 3 0.73 0.16 1.00
Albert Grønbæk DML 90 0 0 2 1 0.20 0.10 0.58
Albert Sambi Lokonga MC 90 0 0 3 2 0.16 0.05 0.35
Nicolai Remberg MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.71
Luka Vuskovic DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.16 0.31
Jordan Torunarigha DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.15
Sander Tangvik GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Otto Stange FW 79 0 0 1 1 0.12 0.10 0.14
Fábio Vieira AMC 79 1 0 3 2 0.10 0.07 0.28
Warmed Omari DC 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.26
Rayan Philippe AMC 65 0 0 3 2 0.09 0.19 0.30
Miro Muheim Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Fabio Baldé Sub 11 0 0 2 0 0.19 0.00 0.19
Shafiq Nandja Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yussuf Poulsen Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
William Mikelbrencis Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.55 0.55
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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