Bayer Leverkusen v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 14
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
22 – 9
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.62 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-1.57 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
48.3%
Draw
23.3%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
28.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen have scored 24 from 25.6 expected and conceded 15 from 16.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLDLWDWWW last 10
scored 24
from 25.6 xG
conceded 15
from 16.9 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLWLWLWLW last 10
scored 24
from 22.6 xG
conceded 20
from 21.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.76–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.21–1.52 | 2-1 9% | 72% | 70% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 5.57 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 1.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 2' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 6' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 16' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Montrell Culbreath | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 16' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 18' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 21' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Aleix García |
| 24' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nathan Tella |
| 24' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 29' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aleix García |
| 29' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robert Andrich |
| 30' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Exequiel Palacios |
| 30' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jarell Quansah | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 38' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Max Finkgrafe | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 40' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Max Finkgrafe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xaver Schlager | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 44' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Montrell Culbreath | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.47 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Aleix García |
| 45' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 45' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 48' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Willi Orban |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 51' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edmond Tapsoba |
| 56' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Exequiel Palacios |
| 58' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 61' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 70' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Montrell Culbreath | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 72' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.67 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 75' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ibrahim Maza |
| 78' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 79' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.62 | Open Play | — | Goal | Brajan Gruda |
| 88' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álex Grimaldo |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick FW | 90 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3.29 | 0.00 | 3.27 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.41 | 2.01 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.18 | 1.52 | 1.03 |
| Robert Andrich DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.32 |
| Exequiel Palacios MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 2.38 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Ibrahim Maza AMC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 1.75 |
| Aleix García MC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.82 | 1.13 |
| Nathan Tella AMC | 79 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.94 | 1.33 | 2.43 |
| Montrell Culbreath DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ernest Poku Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malik Tillman Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezequiél Fernández Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kofane Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.03 | 0.75 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.86 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Finkgrafe DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Rômulo FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 42 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| Castello Lukeba Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Assan Ouédraogo Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |