Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.59
Goals − xG
-1.39 – -1.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
51.3%
Draw
24.4%
Union Berlin win
24.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.77–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.77–0.84 | 1-0 13% | 48% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 3.39 xGUnion Berlin 1.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Edmond Tapsoba | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Malik Tillman |
| 9' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ezequiél Fernández | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 15' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.53 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 17' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Vázquez |
| 22' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 28' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Loic Bade |
| 32' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lucas Vázquez |
| 38' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Malik Tillman |
| 43' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur |
| 48' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Christian Kofane | 0.85 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 50' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kofane |
| 51' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ernest Poku | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 56' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Arthur | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Malik Tillman |
| 58' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kofane |
| 59' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Ibrahim Maza | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jarell Quansah |
| 63' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Maza |
| 66' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leopold Querfeld |
| 72' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ernest Poku |
| 81' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 84' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Malik Tillman | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 91' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonas Hofmann | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aljoscha Kemlein |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Poku AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.05 | 0.82 |
| Malik Tillman AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 1.11 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Loic Bade DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.54 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| Christian Kofane FW | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 0.96 |
| Ezequiél Fernández MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Álex Grimaldo DML | 54 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Lucas Vázquez DMR | 54 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| Ibrahim Maza Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.03 | 1.12 |
| Arthur Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.54 |
| Robert Andrich Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jonas Hofmann Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Jeanuël Belocian Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| Derrick Köhn DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.24 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Oliver Burke AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Ansah Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Janik Haberer Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tom Rothe Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |