Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 11
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.58 – 0.32
Goals − xG
-1.36 – +0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
68.9%
Draw
19.5%
Werder Bremen win
11.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen have scored 24 from 25.6 expected and conceded 15 from 16.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLDLWDWWW last 10
scored 24
from 25.6 xG
conceded 15
from 16.9 xG
Werder Bremen have scored 14 from 12.6 expected and conceded 19 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLLLWDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 12.6 xG
conceded 19
from 20.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.54–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 1.36 xGWerder Bremen 1.68 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jens Stage |
| 16' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Senne Lynen |
| 21' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Amine Adli | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix García |
| 25' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleix García |
| 27' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 29' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 29' |
Werder Bremen |
Oliver Burke | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 47' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 47' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 64' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 67' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Aleix García | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Exequiel Palacios |
| 70' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aleix García |
| 70' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Adli |
| 71' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Exequiel Palacios | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Mario Hermoso | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Exequiel Palacios | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 73' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Exequiel Palacios |
| 76' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonathan Tah | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aleix García |
| 80' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Adli |
| 87' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 88' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Amine Adli | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aleix García |
| 90' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathan Tella |
| 90' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonathan Tah | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Amine Adli | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Keke Maximilian Topp |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleix García MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Amine Adli AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Nathan Tella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Arthur DMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Emiliano Buendía AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Exequiel Palacios Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Nordi Mukiele Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Álex Grimaldo Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Jeremie Frimpong Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Florian Wirtz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romano Schmid MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.23 | 0.75 |
| Milos Veljkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mitchell Weiser DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| Felix Agu DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Anthony Jung DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Silva FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Oliver Burke FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.49 |