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Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Bayer Leverkusen
1–0
2.52 – 0.67 xG
Werder Bremen
Shots
13 – 17
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.67 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-1.52 – -0.67

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Bayer Leverkusen win
62.5%
Draw
22.4%
Werder Bremen win
15.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWWLWWLDLW last 10 scored 25 from 28.0 xG conceded 17 from 18.3 xG

Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWDLLLLW last 10 scored 12 from 9.3 xG conceded 18 from 21.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 2.11–0.96 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 2.19–1.28 2-1 10% 67% 64% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.12.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Lucas Vázquez 36' — goal
Bayer Leverkusen 2.52 xGWerder Bremen 0.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jens Stage 2' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Justin Njinmah 5' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Loic Bade 7' — Saved Shot (0.59 xG, From Corner)Marco Friedl 15' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ernest Poku 17' — Missed Shot (0.63 xG, Open Play)Julián Malatini 25' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Romano Schmid 27' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Patrik Schick 30' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrik Schick 30' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Romano Schmid 34' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jonas Hofmann 36' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lucas Vázquez 36' — Goal (0.46 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 40' — Shot On Post (0.04 xG, Open Play)Marco Friedl 41' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Ibrahim Maza 45' — Shot On Post (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrik Schick 46' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Romano Schmid 48' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jonas Hofmann 49' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Álex Grimaldo 49' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Loic Bade 50' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Romano Schmid 55' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Senne Lynen 65' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Senne Lynen 65' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jovan Milosevic 66' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 66' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Maza 70' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Álex Grimaldo 74' — Saved Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)Jovan Milosevic 81' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Keke Maximilian Topp 85' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 93' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right Werder Bremen attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.03 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Marco Grüll
5' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Romano Schmid
7' Bayer Leverkusen Loic Bade 0.59 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot —
15' Werder Bremen Marco Friedl 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Karim Coulibaly
17' Bayer Leverkusen Ernest Poku 0.63 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Patrik Schick
25' Werder Bremen Julián Malatini 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
27' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Marco Grüll
30' Bayer Leverkusen Patrik Schick 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ernest Poku
30' Bayer Leverkusen Patrik Schick 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ernest Poku
34' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Justin Njinmah
36' Bayer Leverkusen Jonas Hofmann 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Álex Grimaldo
36' Bayer Leverkusen Lucas Vázquez 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ibrahim Maza
40' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.04 Open Play — Shot On Post Romano Schmid
41' Werder Bremen Marco Friedl 0.11 From Corner — Saved Shot —
45' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Aleix García
46' Bayer Leverkusen Patrik Schick 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jarell Quansah
48' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
49' Bayer Leverkusen Jonas Hofmann 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
49' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jonas Hofmann
50' Bayer Leverkusen Loic Bade 0.08 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Robert Andrich
55' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marco Grüll
65' Werder Bremen Senne Lynen 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
65' Werder Bremen Senne Lynen 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
66' Werder Bremen Jovan Milosevic 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Justin Njinmah
66' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Olivier Deman
70' Bayer Leverkusen Ibrahim Maza 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jarell Quansah
74' Bayer Leverkusen Álex Grimaldo 0.34 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jonas Hofmann
81' Werder Bremen Jovan Milosevic 0.02 Open Play — Missed Shot Karim Coulibaly
85' Werder Bremen Keke Maximilian Topp 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Marco Friedl
93' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Julián Malatini

Players

Bayer Leverkusen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Loic Bade DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.67 0.00 0.80
Álex Grimaldo DML 90 0 0 2 1 0.40 0.02 1.70
Patrik Schick FW 90 0 0 3 1 0.21 0.63 0.91
Jonas Hofmann AMC 90 0 0 2 2 0.09 0.40 1.75
Robert Andrich DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.84
Janis Blaswich GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Jarell Quansah DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.17 0.86
Ibrahim Maza MC 77 0 1 2 1 0.06 0.46 1.32
Aleix García MC 77 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.86
Lucas Vázquez DMR 63 1 0 1 0 0.46 0.00 1.25
Ernest Poku AMC 62 0 0 1 2 0.63 0.08 0.86
Malik Tillman Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Ezequiél Fernández Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Exequiel Palacios Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arthur Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Werder Bremen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Justin Njinmah FW 90 0 0 4 2 0.21 0.05 0.32
Romano Schmid MC 90 0 0 4 2 0.13 0.14 0.30
Marco Friedl DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.12 0.05 0.26
Senne Lynen MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.15
Jens Stage MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Mio Backhaus GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Karim Coulibaly DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.04 0.23
Yukinari Sugawara DMR 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Julián Malatini Sub 76 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.19
Marco Grüll FW 65 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.08 0.07
Isaac Schmidt DML 51 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Olivier Deman Sub 39 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.16
Jovan Milosevic Sub 25 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Amos Pieper DC 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Keke Maximilian Topp Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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