Bayern Munich v Bochum — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 8
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
1.22 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.78 – +1.64
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
84.3%
Draw
11.8%
Bochum win
3.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDWWDWW last 10
scored 34
from 32.5 xG
conceded 10
from 13.1 xG
Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 12.5 xG
conceded 20
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 3.14–0.67 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 2.78 xGBochum 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Bochum attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Serge Gnabry |
| 17' |
Bayern Munich |
Eric Dier | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.76 | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 27' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Goal | Thomas Müller |
| 27' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hiroki Ito |
| 30' |
 Bochum |
Jakov Medic | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Bochum |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giorgos Masouras |
| 50' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 50' |
Bochum |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | Felix Passlack |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 57' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 59' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Philipp Hofmann |
| 67' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 70' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 78' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 82' |
Bochum |
Maximilian Wittek | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 83' |
Bochum |
Moritz Broschinski | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Hofmann |
| 84' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 93' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
Players
Bochum
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matús Bero MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Maximilian Wittek DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| Jakov Medic DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernardo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Philipp Hofmann FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| Tim Oermann DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Timo Horn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Passlack DR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Giorgos Masouras FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Moritz Broschinski Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Cristian Gamboa Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Erhan Masovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Losilla Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphael Guerreiro AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Josip Stanisic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Hiroki Ito DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.31 |
| Serge Gnabry AML | 66 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| Sacha Boey DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Leroy Sané AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.12 |
| Thomas Müller FW | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Harry Kane Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Jamal Musiala Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Konrad Laimer Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Michael Olise Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| Joshua Kimmich Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.37 |