Bayern Munich v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 16
On target
9 – 6
Shots in box
14 – 11
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.27
Goals − xG
-0.85 – -1.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
65.3%
Draw
18.8%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
15.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDWWDWW last 10
scored 34
from 32.5 xG
conceded 10
from 13.1 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLLLLLLW last 10
scored 17
from 16.5 xG
conceded 25
from 23.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.47–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 2.85 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Fabio Chiarodia | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 9' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Nico Elvedi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Stefan Lainer |
| 26' |
Bayern Munich |
Kingsley Coman | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 27' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kingsley Coman |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Eric Dier | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Dier |
| 30' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 30' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 39' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Elvedi |
| 40' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Fabio Chiarodia | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 42' |
Bayern Munich |
Kingsley Coman | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leon Goretzka |
| 43' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tim Kleindienst | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 47' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Stefan Lainer | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Bayern Munich |
Raphael Guerreiro | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 54' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tim Kleindienst | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 55' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 56' |
Bayern Munich |
Kingsley Coman | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 56' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 59' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 63' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 67' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 67' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 74' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Kleindienst |
| 77' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 78' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Stefan Lainer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Kleindienst |
| 78' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Tomás Cvancara | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 80' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Chiarodia |
| 81' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leon Goretzka |
| 84' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Kleindienst |
| 89' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Leroy Sané |
| 92' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leon Goretzka |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Kleindienst FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| Stefan Lainer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Fabio Chiarodia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 0.90 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Jonas Omlin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Julian Weigl DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| Franck Honorat MR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| Robin Hack ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Philipp Sander MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Joe Scally Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Alassane Pléa Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomás Cvancara Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Florian Neuhaus Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0.58 | 0.81 | 1.81 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 0.94 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.80 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.98 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1.10 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Thomas Müller AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.12 | 0.95 |
| Raphael Guerreiro DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Kingsley Coman AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
| Josip Stanisic DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Leroy Sané Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.80 |
| João Palhinha Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Serge Gnabry Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Gabriel Vidovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |