Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 7
On target
10 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 5
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.70 – -0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
65.1%
Draw
20.9%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
14.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.44–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 4.70 xGEintracht Frankfurt 0.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Can Uzun |
| 8' |
 Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hiroki Ito |
| 13' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 14' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 20' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 39' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.89 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Leroy Sané |
| 46' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 49' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 51' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Bayern Munich |
Kim Min-Jae | 0.53 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 52' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 60' |
Bayern Munich |
Eric Dier | 0.17 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 60' |
Bayern Munich |
Hiroki Ito | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 67' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 73' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 75' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Götze |
| 77' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 91' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kingsley Coman |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nnamdi Collins DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| Ansgar Knauff DML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jean Négoce AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Can Uzun AMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| Oscar Højlund MC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ellyes Skhiri Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mario Götze Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Michy Batshuayi Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nathaniel Brown Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1.56 | 0.77 | 2.64 |
| Jamal Musiala AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.21 | 2.39 |
| Leroy Sané AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.61 | 1.50 | 2.16 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 1.72 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.46 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 2.17 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.32 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Thomas Müller FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| Hiroki Ito DL | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 2.06 |
| Leon Goretzka Sub | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.41 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1.15 |
| Alphonso Davies Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.45 |
| Harry Kane Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Serge Gnabry Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Kingsley Coman Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |