Bayern Munich v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 8
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 4
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.52 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+2.86 – +1.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
74.6%
Draw
15.2%
Freiburg win
10.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.75–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.53–0.70 | 2-0 13% | 63% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 3.14 xGFreiburg 0.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Freiburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 11' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 20' |
 Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 34' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 37' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lennart Karl |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 47' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 49' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lennart Karl |
| 54' |
Bayern Munich |
Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 0.48 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 54' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 56' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 59' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lennart Karl |
| 67' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 72' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 73' |
Freiburg |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 75' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 77' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 83' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hiroki Ito |
| 88' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 90' |
Bayern Munich |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 92' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Max Rosenfelder DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Derry Scherhant AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Lucas Höler FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Igor Matanovic Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Osterhage Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Lienhart Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vincenzo Grifo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 0.45 | 1.63 | 2.33 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.79 |
| Tom Bischof DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.72 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Harry Kane FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.78 | 1.49 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Lennart Karl AMC | 74 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.87 | 0.18 | 1.55 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Konrad Laimer Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.52 |
| Nicolas Jackson Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Kim Min-Jae Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hiroki Ito Sub | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Wisdom Mike Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |