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Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Bayern Munich
5–1
6.38 – 2.67 xG
Hoffenheim
Shots
27 – 9
On target
13 – 4
Shots in box
18 – 8
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.32
Set-piece xG
1.58 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.45 – -1.90

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Bayern Munich win
79.5%
Draw
13.7%
Hoffenheim win
6.8%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDWWWDWWDW last 10 scored 35 from 31.8 xG conceded 12 from 15.5 xG

Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WDWLLLWLLW last 10 scored 17 from 20.0 xG conceded 22 from 16.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 2.97–0.84 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 3.32–0.77 3-0 10% 77% 52% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.83.65.47.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Harry Kane 19' — goalAndrej Kramaric 34' — goalHarry Kane 44' — goalLuis Díaz 46' — goalLuis Díaz 61' — goalLuis Díaz 88' — goal
Bayern Munich 6.45 xGHoffenheim 2.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Serge Gnabry 3' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 8' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Aleksandar Pavlovic 9' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Serge Gnabry 11' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 19' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Alphonso Davies 21' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ozan Kabak 24' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 26' — Missed Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 26' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 28' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Fisnik Asllani 28' — Shot On Post (0.24 xG, Open Play)Serge Gnabry 31' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Andrej Kramaric 32' — Saved Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Bazoumana Touré 32' — Missed Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Andrej Kramaric 34' — Goal (0.50 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 37' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 44' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Luis Díaz 46' — Goal (0.49 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 50' — Saved Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Fisnik Asllani 56' — Saved Shot (0.25 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 61' — Goal (0.59 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 63' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 66' — Saved Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Joshua Kimmich 68' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Muhammed Damar 74' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Alphonso Davies 76' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lennart Karl 78' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jamal Musiala 81' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Jamal Musiala 82' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Max Moerstedt 85' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Muhammed Damar 85' — Saved Shot (0.56 xG, Open Play)Jamal Musiala 86' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Aleksandar Pavlovic 87' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 88' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Lennart Karl 91' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Jackson 91' — Blocked Shot (0.75 xG, Open Play)
Bayern Munich attacking right Hoffenheim attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Bayern Munich Serge Gnabry 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Michael Olise
8' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Josip Stanisic
9' Bayern Munich Aleksandar Pavlovic 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Harry Kane
11' Bayern Munich Serge Gnabry 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Luis Díaz
19' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
21' Bayern Munich Alphonso Davies 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Joshua Kimmich
24' Hoffenheim Ozan Kabak 0.36 Open Play — Missed Shot Alexander Prass
26' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.50 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
26' Bayern Munich Luis Díaz 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Michael Olise
28' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Michael Olise
28' Hoffenheim Fisnik Asllani 0.24 Open Play — Shot On Post Vladimir Coufal
31' Bayern Munich Serge Gnabry 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Luis Díaz
32' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.45 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fisnik Asllani
32' Hoffenheim Bazoumana Touré 0.45 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
34' Hoffenheim Andrej Kramaric 0.50 Open Play Left Foot Goal Fisnik Asllani
37' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Serge Gnabry
44' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
46' Bayern Munich Luis Díaz 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Goal Harry Kane
50' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.43 Open Play — Saved Shot Joshua Kimmich
56' Hoffenheim Fisnik Asllani 0.25 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Alexander Prass
61' Bayern Munich Luis Díaz 0.59 Open Play Right Foot Goal Michael Olise
63' Bayern Munich Luis Díaz 0.33 Open Play — Missed Shot Harry Kane
66' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Díaz
68' Bayern Munich Joshua Kimmich 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Luis Díaz
74' Hoffenheim Muhammed Damar 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
76' Bayern Munich Alphonso Davies 0.06 Open Play — Missed Shot Luis Díaz
78' Bayern Munich Lennart Karl 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jamal Musiala
81' Bayern Munich Jamal Musiala 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolas Jackson
82' Bayern Munich Jamal Musiala 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Konrad Laimer
85' Hoffenheim Max Moerstedt 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Muhammed Damar
85' Hoffenheim Muhammed Damar 0.56 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Max Moerstedt
86' Bayern Munich Jamal Musiala 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nicolas Jackson
87' Bayern Munich Aleksandar Pavlovic 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Luis Díaz
88' Bayern Munich Luis Díaz 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jamal Musiala
91' Bayern Munich Lennart Karl 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Aleksandar Pavlovic
91' Bayern Munich Nicolas Jackson 0.75 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —

Players

Hoffenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ozan Kabak DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.36 0.00 1.34
Vladimir Coufal DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.24 0.68
Oliver Baumann GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.24
Grischa Prömel MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.74
Albian Hajdari DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.68
Alexander Prass MR 85 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.60 1.28
Leon Avdullahu MC 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.59
Andrej Kramaric AMC 75 1 0 2 0 0.95 0.00 1.19
Bazoumana Touré ML 75 0 0 1 0 0.45 0.00 1.29
Fisnik Asllani FW 70 0 1 2 2 0.48 0.95 1.43
Ihlas Bebou Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Kevin Akpoguma DC 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Muhammed Damar Sub 15 0 0 2 1 0.61 0.06 0.67
Valentin Gendrey Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Max Moerstedt Sub 5 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.56 0.62
Luka Djuric Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06

Bayern Munich

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Luis Díaz AML 90 3 0 5 6 1.56 0.75 2.90
Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.04 1.86
Joshua Kimmich DMC 90 0 0 1 2 0.09 0.47 1.53
Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.72
Josip Stanisic DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.27
Manuel Neuer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.20
Alphonso Davies DL 84 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.85
Harry Kane FW 72 2 1 7 3 3.32 0.88 3.21
Serge Gnabry AMC 67 0 0 3 1 0.17 0.38 0.97
Michael Olise AMR 67 0 1 1 4 0.03 0.77 1.60
Jonathan Tah DC 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.50
Jamal Musiala Sub 23 0 1 3 2 0.27 0.10 0.43
Lennart Karl Sub 23 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.00 1.04
Hiroki Ito Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Nicolas Jackson Sub 18 0 0 1 2 0.75 0.20 0.95
Konrad Laimer Sub 6 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.27
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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