Bayern Munich v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
29 – 12
On target
17 – 4
Shots in box
17 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.62 – 0.26
Goals − xG
+0.98 – +0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyBayern Munich win
78.8%
model 74.5%
Draw
10.7%
model 13.2%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
10.6%
model 12.3%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 3-1 7.6%
- 2-1 6.9%
- 4-1 6.3%
- 3-0 5.5%
- 3-2 5.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 85.0% | Under 2.5 | 15.0% |
| BTTS yes | 72.5% | BTTS no | 27.5% |
| Bayern Munich 1+ | 96.4% | Bayern Munich 2+ | 84.5% |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig 1+ | 75.2% | RasenBallsport Leipzig 2+ | 40.7% |
Expected goals 3.33 – 1.40. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
96/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Bayern Munich (-1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 25%
57.0% fair odds 1.75
strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Over 0.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT · usually 77%
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1943 Elo against 1617.
- Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Bayern Munich have an estimated 78.8% win probability, against 10.7% for the draw and 10.6% for RasenBallsport Leipzig. Expected goals from the ensemble are 3.33 for Bayern Munich and 1.40 for RasenBallsport Leipzig.
Why Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1943 Elo against 1617. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 10.7%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why RasenBallsport Leipzig can win
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home RasenBallsport Leipzig average 1.51 xG a match.
Key players
Bayern Munich's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Harry Kane (0.99), Michael Olise (0.69), Luis Díaz (0.62). RasenBallsport Leipzig's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rômulo (0.54), Christoph Baumgartner (0.54), Yan Diomande (0.52).
Availability
2 of RasenBallsport Leipzig's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Bayern Munich: 70% possession, 23.4 shots a match, 7.0 faced, 0.70 xG a match from set pieces. RasenBallsport Leipzig: 56% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.85 xG a match from set pieces. Bayern Munich's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-17 14:51 · team_stats 2026-10-17 06:03 · availability 2026-10-17 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Bayern Munich are the model's most likely outcome at 78.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 3-1 at 7.6%. Confidence 96/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWDWWDW last 10
scored 35
from 31.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.5 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 23 from 24.1 expected and conceded 21 from 21.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLWLWLWL last 10
scored 23
from 24.1 xG
conceded 21
from 21.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 3.33–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 3.60–1.34 | 3-1 7% | 87% | 72% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.52–1.28 | 3-1 8% | 86% | 70% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win | 73.4% | 73.8% | 41.9% | 1.76× | 1.36 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to win | 13.4% | 13.5% | 33.5% | 0.40× | 7.40 |
| Draw | 13.2% | 13.5% | 24.7% | 0.55× | 7.40 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich & both teams score | 52.6% | 48.1% | 22.2% | 2.17× | 2.08 |
| Bayern Munich & not both score | 20.8% | 21.8% | 19.9% | 1.10× | 4.59 |
| Draw & both teams score | 12.5% | 13.3% | 19.1% | 0.69× | 7.54 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig & both teams score | 10.9% | 13.3% | 18.5% | 0.72× | 7.54 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig & not both score | 2.5% | 4.9% | 15.2% | 0.32× | 20.62 |
| Draw & not both score | 0.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.84× | 20.67 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich & over 2.5 | 66.9% | 67.6% | 29.9% | 2.26× | 1.48 |
| Bayern Munich & over 1.5 | 71.0% | 67.1% | 35.8% | 1.87× | 1.49 |
| Bayern Munich & over 3.5 | 55.9% | 54.7% | 20.3% | 2.69× | 1.83 |
| Bayern Munich & under 3.5 | 17.5% | 18.0% | 21.7% | 0.83× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 19.1% | 0.67× | 7.79 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 1.5 | 12.3% | 12.8% | 27.8% | 0.46× | 7.79 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 2.5 | 11.5% | 12.8% | 23.5% | 0.55× | 7.79 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 0.82× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 0.82× | 12.62 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 3.5 | 8.3% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 0.56× | 12.62 |
| Bayern Munich & under 2.5 | 6.5% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 0.65× | 12.62 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 3.5 | 5.1% | 7.9% | 19.4% | 0.41× | 12.62 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 15.2% | 0.32× | 20.85 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 15.2% | 0.32× | 20.85 |
| Bayern Munich & under 1.5 | 2.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 0.77× | 20.86 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 2.5 | 1.9% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 0.47× | 20.86 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 1.5 | 1.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 0.81× | 20.87 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 0.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.83× | 20.87 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (1UP) | 85.9% | 89.9% | 60.2% | 1.49× | 1.11 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (1UP) | 38.6% | 33.9% | 52.3% | 0.65× | 2.95 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (2UP) | 73.4% | 81.2% | 45.3% | 1.79× | 1.23 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (2UP) | 13.4% | 14.2% | 36.5% | 0.39× | 7.06 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win 2nd half | 73.6% | 75.7% | 37.2% | 2.03× | 1.32 |
| 2nd half drawn | 16.5% | 18.2% | 33.6% | 0.54× | 5.50 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to win 2nd half | 9.9% | 7.7% | 29.3% | 0.26× | 12.95 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 in 2nd half | 82.8% | 84.1% | 79.3% | 1.06× | 1.19 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 in 2nd half | 52.6% | 52.2% | 56.8% | 0.92× | 1.92 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 in 2nd half | 47.4% | 47.8% | 43.2% | 1.11× | 2.09 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 in 2nd half | 17.2% | 15.9% | 20.7% | 0.77× | 6.27 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 2nd half | 90.7% | 93.5% | 62.9% | 1.49× | 1.07 |
| Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 2nd half | 68.6% | 71.3% | 25.7% | 2.78× | 1.40 |
| Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 2nd half | 31.4% | 28.7% | 74.3% | 0.39× | 3.49 |
| Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 2nd half | 9.3% | 6.5% | 37.1% | 0.17× | 15.45 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (+0.5) | 86.6% | 88.4% | 66.5% | 1.33× | 1.13 |
| Bayern Munich (-0.5) | 73.4% | 73.7% | 41.9% | 1.76× | 1.36 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (+2.5) | 62.4% | 62.9% | 88.0% | 0.72× | 1.59 |
| Bayern Munich (-1.5) | 55.9% | 57.0% | 24.7% | 2.31× | 1.75 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (+1.5) | 44.1% | 43.0% | 75.3% | 0.57× | 2.33 |
| Bayern Munich (-2.5) | 37.6% | 37.1% | 12.0% | 3.09× | 2.70 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (+0.5) | 26.6% | 26.4% | 58.1% | 0.45× | 3.80 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (-0.5) | 13.4% | 11.6% | 33.5% | 0.34× | 8.66 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede | 96.8% | 96.5% | 79.2% | 1.22× | 1.04 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet | 3.2% | 3.6% | 20.8% | 0.17× | 28.17 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede in 1st half | 65.4% | 70.4% | 52.1% | 1.35× | 1.42 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet in 1st half | 34.6% | 29.6% | 47.9% | 0.62× | 3.38 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede in 2nd half | 90.7% | 91.2% | 62.9% | 1.45× | 1.10 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet in 2nd half | 9.3% | 8.8% | 37.1% | 0.24× | 11.35 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 6.5 corners | 91.8% | 89.9% | — | — | 1.11 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 5.5 corners | 84.8% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 4.5 corners | 73.7% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 2.5 corners | 61.5% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 3.5 corners | 57.9% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 3.5 corners | 42.1% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 2.5 corners | 38.5% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 4.5 corners | 26.3% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 5.5 corners | 15.2% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 6.5 corners | 8.2% | 10.1% | — | — | 9.93 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 3.5 goals | 92.9% | 92.3% | 92.6% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 2.5 goals | 79.9% | 76.3% | 79.1% | 0.96× | 1.31 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | 76.3% | 74.5% | 1.02× | 1.31 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 goals | 54.5% | 53.6% | 57.1% | 0.94× | 1.87 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 goals | 45.5% | 46.4% | 42.9% | 1.08× | 2.15 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 goals | 21.5% | 23.7% | 25.5% | 0.93× | 4.21 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 2.5 goals | 20.1% | 23.7% | 20.9% | 1.13× | 4.22 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 3.5 goals | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 1.03× | 13.04 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 in 1st half | 81.1% | 82.4% | 85.7% | 0.96× | 1.21 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 in 1st half | 54.7% | 55.6% | 45.6% | 1.22× | 1.80 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 in 1st half | 45.3% | 44.4% | 54.4% | 0.82× | 2.25 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 in 1st half | 18.9% | 17.6% | 14.3% | 1.23× | 5.70 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig scores equally in both | 36.2% | 37.3% | 39.5% | 0.94× | 2.68 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig scores more in 1st half | 33.3% | 33.5% | 24.0% | 1.40× | 2.99 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig scores more in 2nd half | 30.6% | 33.4% | 36.6% | 0.91× | 2.99 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (away no bet) | 84.7% | 82.8% | 62.9% | 1.32× | 1.21 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 15.3% | 17.2% | 37.1% | 0.46× | 5.82 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig even goals | 52.3% | 52.6% | 53.6% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig odd goals | 47.7% | 47.4% | 46.4% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 54.7% | 58.1% | 75.4% | 0.77× | 1.72 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 41.9% | 24.6% | 1.70× | 2.39 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 91.9% | 91.2% | 72.5% | 1.26× | 1.10 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 8.1% | 8.8% | 27.5% | 0.32× | 11.31 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 86.4% | 88.5% | 66.7% | 1.33× | 1.13 |
| Bayern Munich to score 2+ in a row | 77.0% | 75.7% | 42.6% | 1.78× | 1.32 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 53.5% | 51.0% | 29.3% | 1.74× | 1.96 |
| Bayern Munich to score 3+ in a row | 48.4% | 46.1% | 17.8% | 2.59× | 2.17 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 2+ in a row | 27.5% | 25.2% | 34.5% | 0.73× | 3.96 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 3+ in a row | 6.9% | 5.6% | 12.5% | 0.45× | 17.79 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich corners (+3.5) | 98.4% | 95.8% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Bayern Munich corners (+2.5) | 97.0% | 95.8% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Bayern Munich corners (+1.5) | 94.8% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Bayern Munich corners (-1.5) | 80.2% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Bayern Munich corners (-2.5) | 72.5% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Bayern Munich corners (-3.5) | 63.9% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (+3.5) | 36.1% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.62 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (+2.5) | 27.5% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (+1.5) | 19.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (-1.5) | 5.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.59 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (-2.5) | 3.0% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.57 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig corners (-3.5) | 1.6% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.62 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 51.1% | 45.2% | — | — | 2.21 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.2% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.21 |
| 0-8 corners | 22.7% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.90 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 84.5% | 80.7% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 77.3% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 69.1% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 60.1% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 57.7% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 51.1% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 48.9% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 42.3% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 39.9% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 30.9% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 22.7% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 15.5% | 19.3% | — | — | 5.18 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other score | 27.3% | 19.9% | 5.8% | 3.46× | 5.01 |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.22× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 1.04× | 13.50 |
| 3-2 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.12× | 13.50 |
| 4-1 | 6.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 3.49× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 6.7% | 0.26× | 58.29 |
| 4-2 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.62× | 58.29 |
| 0-0 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 0.30× | 58.32 |
| 0-1 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 0.29× | 58.31 |
| 0-2 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 58.31 |
| 0-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.32 |
| 0-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.13× | 58.32 |
| 1-0 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 6.2% | 0.28× | 58.31 |
| 1-1 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 9.6% | 0.18× | 58.30 |
| 1-2 | 2.8% | 1.7% | 6.7% | 0.26× | 58.30 |
| 1-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 0.36× | 58.31 |
| 1-4 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.03× | 58.32 |
| 2-0 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.28× | 58.30 |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.31 |
| 2-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.61× | 58.31 |
| 3-0 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.29 |
| 3-3 | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.59× | 58.30 |
| 3-4 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.03× | 58.31 |
| 4-0 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 0.49× | 58.30 |
| 4-3 | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.88× | 58.31 |
| 4-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.77× | 58.31 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (2nd half DNB) | 88.2% | 87.1% | 55.9% | 1.56× | 1.15 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (2nd half DNB) | 11.8% | 12.9% | 44.1% | 0.29× | 7.77 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich leading at HT (DNB) | 60.7% | 65.7% | 55.7% | 1.18× | 1.52 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig leading at HT (DNB) | 39.3% | 34.3% | 44.3% | 0.77× | 2.92 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or RasenBallsport Leipzig (12) | 86.8% | 86.5% | 75.3% | 1.15× | 1.16 |
| Bayern Munich or draw (1X) | 86.6% | 86.5% | 66.5% | 1.30× | 1.16 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw (X2) | 26.6% | 26.2% | 58.1% | 0.45× | 3.81 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or draw at HT | 73.2% | 75.1% | 70.7% | 1.06× | 1.33 |
| Bayern Munich or RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT | 68.1% | 66.8% | 66.1% | 1.01× | 1.50 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw at HT | 58.7% | 57.4% | 63.1% | 0.91× | 1.74 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or draw (1UP) | 86.6% | 91.9% | 73.7% | 1.25× | 1.09 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw (1UP) | 38.6% | 41.4% | 64.7% | 0.64× | 2.42 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or draw in 2nd half | 90.1% | 92.3% | 70.7% | 1.31× | 1.08 |
| Bayern Munich or RasenBallsport Leipzig in 2nd half | 83.5% | 81.8% | 66.4% | 1.23× | 1.22 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw in 2nd half | 26.4% | 24.3% | 62.8% | 0.39× | 4.11 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half drawn | 56.9% | 58.6% | 46.2% | 1.27× | 1.71 |
| A half drawn | 43.1% | 41.4% | 53.8% | 0.77× | 2.41 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (DNB) | 84.6% | 80.4% | 55.5% | 1.45× | 1.24 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (DNB) | 15.4% | 19.6% | 44.5% | 0.44× | 5.10 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to score first | 68.7% | 69.5% | 51.2% | 1.36× | 1.44 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score first | 30.6% | 27.1% | 43.2% | 0.63× | 3.68 |
| No goal scored | 0.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 0.72× | 23.97 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 76.0% | 62.2% | 59.5% | 1.05× | 1.61 |
| Not both teams to score | 24.0% | 37.8% | 40.5% | 0.93× | 2.64 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 72.4% | 59.7% | 50.1% | 1.19× | 1.67 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 15.0% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 0.96× | 8.09 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 9.0% | 8.3% | 27.8% | 0.30× | 12.05 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 3.6% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 0.49× | 21.28 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 61.0% | 70.0% | 79.4% | 0.88× | 1.43 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 39.0% | 30.0% | 20.6% | 1.45× | 3.33 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 52.3% | 53.5% | 65.0% | 0.82× | 1.87 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 47.7% | 46.5% | 35.0% | 1.33× | 2.15 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 33.6% | 27.0% | 51.2% | 0.53× | 3.71 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 30.6% | 26.3% | 28.3% | 0.93× | 3.80 |
| Both score 1st half only | 18.7% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 1.08× | 6.60 |
| Both score in both halves | 17.1% | 15.1% | 6.8% | 2.21× | 6.63 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 64.2% | 63.5% | 79.3% | 0.80× | 1.58 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 35.8% | 36.5% | 20.7% | 1.77× | 2.74 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 80.7% | 79.3% | 67.6% | 1.17× | 1.26 |
| A half without a goal | 19.3% | 20.7% | 32.4% | 0.64× | 4.83 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 goals | 50.3% | 41.2% | 40.1% | 1.03× | 2.43 |
| 2-3 goals | 22.8% | 22.9% | 38.5% | 0.59× | 4.37 |
| 7+ goals | 22.8% | 22.9% | 4.1% | 5.59× | 4.37 |
| 0-1 goals | 4.1% | 1.8% | 17.6% | 0.10× | 54.26 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 1 | 33.0% | 33.8% | 31.7% | 1.07× | 2.96 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 2 | 25.4% | 27.4% | 22.2% | 1.24× | 3.65 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 0 | 21.5% | 22.3% | 25.5% | 0.88× | 4.48 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 3+ | 20.1% | 22.3% | 20.9% | 1.07× | 4.48 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to score 3+ | 66.7% | 59.4% | 27.6% | 2.15× | 1.68 |
| Bayern Munich to score exactly 2 | 19.1% | 18.8% | 23.2% | 0.81× | 5.32 |
| Bayern Munich to score exactly 1 | 11.0% | 14.3% | 28.7% | 0.50× | 6.99 |
| Bayern Munich to score exactly 0 | 3.2% | 6.2% | 20.8% | 0.30× | 16.19 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich leading at HT | 41.3% | 42.6% | 36.9% | 1.15× | 2.35 |
| Draw at HT | 31.9% | 33.2% | 33.9% | 0.98× | 3.02 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig leading at HT | 26.8% | 24.9% | 29.3% | 0.85× | 4.02 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich -1: 1 | 55.9% | 56.8% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Bayern Munich -1: 2 | 26.6% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Bayern Munich -1: X | 17.5% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.73 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (0:1) | 55.9% | 55.8% | 24.7% | 2.26× | 1.79 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:1) | 26.6% | 27.0% | 58.1% | 0.47× | 3.70 |
| Draw (0:1) | 17.5% | 17.8% | 17.3% | 1.03× | 5.61 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:2) | 44.1% | 39.0% | 75.3% | 0.52× | 2.57 |
| Bayern Munich (0:2) | 37.6% | 38.5% | 12.0% | 3.21× | 2.60 |
| Draw (0:2) | 18.3% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 1.18× | 6.55 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:3) | 62.4% | 65.9% | 88.0% | 0.75× | 1.52 |
| Bayern Munich (0:3) | 22.1% | 19.5% | 7.1% | 2.74× | 5.12 |
| Draw (0:3) | 15.5% | 16.0% | 5.0% | 3.20× | 6.25 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:4) | 77.9% | 81.0% | 92.9% | 0.87× | 1.24 |
| Bayern Munich (0:4) | 11.2% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.27× | 10.30 |
| Draw (0:4) | 10.8% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 1.93× | 10.34 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (1:0) | 86.6% | 86.1% | 66.5% | 1.29× | 1.16 |
| Draw (1:0) | 7.8% | 6.9% | 16.5% | 0.42× | 14.48 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (1:0) | 5.6% | 6.9% | 17.1% | 0.40× | 14.51 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (2:0) | 94.4% | 94.0% | 82.9% | 1.13× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 3.6% | 2.3% | 10.0% | 0.23× | 43.55 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (2:0) | 1.9% | 2.3% | 7.3% | 0.31× | 43.65 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 63.0% | 63.0% | 47.3% | 1.33× | 1.59 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 21.0% | 24.2% | 26.0% | 0.93× | 4.13 |
| Halves equal | 16.0% | 19.1% | 26.9% | 0.71× | 5.23 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to concede | 78.5% | 76.1% | 74.5% | 1.02× | 1.31 |
| Bayern Munich clean sheet | 21.5% | 23.9% | 25.5% | 0.94× | 4.19 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to concede in 1st half | 54.7% | 55.6% | 45.6% | 1.22× | 1.80 |
| Bayern Munich clean sheet in 1st half | 45.3% | 44.4% | 54.4% | 0.82× | 2.25 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to concede in 2nd half | 52.6% | 52.3% | 56.8% | 0.92× | 1.91 |
| Bayern Munich clean sheet in 2nd half | 47.4% | 47.7% | 43.2% | 1.11× | 2.10 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich over 2.5 corners | 96.6% | 94.9% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Bayern Munich over 3.5 corners | 92.4% | 89.3% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Bayern Munich over 4.5 corners | 86.0% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Bayern Munich over 5.5 corners | 77.6% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Bayern Munich over 6.5 corners | 67.8% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Bayern Munich under 6.5 corners | 32.2% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Bayern Munich under 5.5 corners | 22.4% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Bayern Munich under 4.5 corners | 14.1% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.28 |
| Bayern Munich under 3.5 corners | 7.6% | 10.7% | — | — | 9.31 |
| Bayern Munich under 2.5 corners | 3.4% | 5.1% | — | — | 19.54 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich over 0.5 goals | 96.8% | 96.4% | 79.2% | 1.22× | 1.04 |
| Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | 87.3% | 50.7% | 1.72× | 1.15 |
| Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals | 66.7% | 67.9% | 27.6% | 2.46× | 1.47 |
| Bayern Munich under 3.5 goals | 55.3% | 58.6% | 88.5% | 0.66× | 1.71 |
| Bayern Munich over 3.5 goals | 44.7% | 41.4% | 11.5% | 3.59× | 2.42 |
| Bayern Munich under 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 32.1% | 72.4% | 0.44× | 3.12 |
| Bayern Munich under 1.5 goals | 14.2% | 12.7% | 49.3% | 0.26× | 7.85 |
| Bayern Munich under 0.5 goals | 3.2% | 3.6% | 20.8% | 0.18× | 27.48 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 1st half | 71.3% | 79.4% | 80.5% | 0.99× | 1.26 |
| Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 1st half | 65.4% | 68.9% | 52.1% | 1.32× | 1.45 |
| Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 1st half | 34.6% | 31.1% | 47.9% | 0.65× | 3.22 |
| Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 1st half | 28.7% | 20.6% | 19.5% | 1.06× | 4.87 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich scores more in 2nd half | 66.4% | 66.4% | 38.1% | 1.74× | 1.51 |
| Bayern Munich scores equally in both | 18.2% | 15.3% | 36.6% | 0.42× | 6.54 |
| Bayern Munich scores more in 1st half | 15.4% | 14.2% | 25.4% | 0.56× | 7.06 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig (home no bet) | 50.3% | 51.4% | 57.6% | 0.89× | 1.95 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 49.7% | 48.6% | 42.4% | 1.15× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich even goals | 50.1% | 50.7% | 52.5% | 0.97× | 1.97 |
| Bayern Munich odd goals | 49.9% | 49.3% | 47.5% | 1.04× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1-0 | 16.6% | 18.6% | 19.5% | 0.96× | 5.37 |
| HT 0-0 | 15.6% | 18.6% | 22.9% | 0.81× | 5.37 |
| Any other HT score | 13.4% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 1.63× | 9.17 |
| HT 1-1 | 13.2% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 1.12× | 9.17 |
| HT 0-1 | 12.4% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 0.66× | 9.18 |
| HT 2-0 | 8.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 0.73× | 14.38 |
| HT 2-1 | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.63× | 14.41 |
| HT 1-2 | 5.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.98× | 14.44 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 7.1% | 0.33× | 41.90 |
| HT 2-2 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.74× | 42.04 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich at HT / Bayern Munich at FT | 38.6% | 41.6% | 28.3% | 1.47× | 2.40 |
| Draw at HT / Bayern Munich at FT | 23.5% | 21.5% | 10.6% | 2.02× | 4.65 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / Bayern Munich at FT | 11.4% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 3.79× | 7.89 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT | 9.5% | 6.0% | 20.4% | 0.30× | 16.60 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / Draw at FT | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 1.01× | 16.70 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 5.3% | 6.0% | 13.7% | 0.44× | 16.72 |
| Draw at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT | 3.2% | 3.5% | 9.9% | 0.35× | 28.72 |
| Bayern Munich at HT / Draw at FT | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 0.65× | 28.76 |
| Bayern Munich at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT | 0.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 0.95× | 28.81 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to score last | 68.5% | 70.3% | 50.0% | 1.41× | 1.42 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score last | 30.8% | 32.6% | 44.4% | 0.73× | 3.07 |
| No goal scored | 0.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 0.72× | 23.97 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 99.3% | 95.8% | 94.2% | 1.02× | 1.04 |
| Bayern Munich to lead by 1 at any time | 85.9% | 90.9% | 60.2% | 1.51× | 1.10 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 77.4% | 78.2% | 55.9% | 1.40× | 1.28 |
| Bayern Munich to lead by 2 at any time | 65.7% | 69.4% | 33.1% | 2.10× | 1.44 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 48.0% | 44.4% | 25.5% | 1.74× | 2.25 |
| Bayern Munich to lead by 3 at any time | 44.1% | 39.1% | 15.7% | 2.50× | 2.56 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 1 at any time | 38.6% | 34.5% | 52.3% | 0.66× | 2.90 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 2 at any time | 13.2% | 10.4% | 23.6% | 0.44× | 9.57 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 3 at any time | 4.0% | 1.7% | 10.0% | 0.17× | 60.30 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich most corners | 86.5% | 86.1% | — | — | 1.16 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig most corners | 8.6% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.95 |
| Corners level | 4.8% | 4.2% | — | — | 23.56 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-6 goals | 73.1% | 72.4% | 78.5% | 0.92× | 1.38 |
| 3-6 goals | 64.5% | 63.4% | 58.9% | 1.08× | 1.58 |
| 1-5 goals | 61.8% | 63.3% | 83.2% | 0.76× | 1.58 |
| 2-5 goals | 58.3% | 59.1% | 71.3% | 0.83× | 1.69 |
| 4-6 goals | 50.3% | 53.2% | 40.1% | 1.33× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 49.8% | 48.5% | 51.7% | 0.94× | 2.06 |
| 1-4 goals | 44.0% | 43.6% | 72.1% | 0.60× | 2.29 |
| 2-4 goals | 40.6% | 43.6% | 60.2% | 0.72× | 2.29 |
| 4-5 goals | 35.5% | 39.2% | 32.9% | 1.19× | 2.55 |
| 5-6 goals | 32.5% | 35.2% | 18.4% | 1.92× | 2.84 |
| 3-4 goals | 32.0% | 35.2% | 40.7% | 0.87× | 2.84 |
| 1-3 goals | 26.2% | 30.2% | 50.4% | 0.60× | 3.31 |
| 2-3 goals | 22.8% | 24.5% | 38.5% | 0.64× | 4.08 |
| 7+ goals | 22.8% | 24.5% | 4.1% | 5.98× | 4.08 |
| 1-2 goals | 12.0% | 14.8% | 31.6% | 0.47× | 6.75 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich never behind | 60.7% | 67.8% | 47.7% | 1.42× | 1.47 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig never behind | 13.4% | 12.4% | 39.8% | 0.31× | 8.05 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 50.0% | 50.9% | 45.2% | 1.13× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.0% | 49.1% | 54.8% | 0.90× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 51.2% | 51.6% | 52.4% | 0.98× | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 48.8% | 48.4% | 47.6% | 1.02× | 2.07 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.2% | 51.9% | 52.9% | 0.98× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.8% | 48.1% | 47.1% | 1.02× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 99.3% | 95.4% | 94.2% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95.9% | 95.4% | 82.4% | 1.16× | 1.05 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 87.3% | 87.6% | 62.8% | 1.39× | 1.14 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 73.1% | 72.4% | 44.0% | 1.65× | 1.38 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 62.4% | 61.8% | 88.8% | 0.70× | 1.62 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 55.3% | 58.6% | 22.3% | 2.63× | 1.71 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 44.7% | 41.4% | 77.7% | 0.53× | 2.42 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 37.6% | 38.2% | 11.2% | 3.40× | 2.62 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 27.6% | 56.0% | 0.49× | 3.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 12.7% | 12.4% | 37.2% | 0.33× | 8.06 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.1% | 4.6% | 17.6% | 0.26× | 21.90 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 0.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79× | 21.96 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 95.5% | 97.2% | 78.1% | 1.24× | 1.03 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 85.2% | 86.7% | 54.2% | 1.60× | 1.15 |
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 73.3% | 72.4% | 95.6% | 0.76× | 1.38 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 67.3% | 67.4% | 28.5% | 2.37× | 1.48 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 54.3% | 51.9% | 87.4% | 0.59× | 1.93 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 45.7% | 48.1% | 12.6% | 3.81× | 2.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 32.7% | 32.6% | 71.5% | 0.46× | 3.07 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 26.7% | 27.6% | 4.4% | 6.25× | 3.63 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 14.8% | 13.3% | 45.8% | 0.29× | 7.53 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 4.5% | 2.8% | 21.9% | 0.13× | 35.63 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 84.4% | 85.8% | 77.1% | 1.11× | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 71.6% | 71.7% | 84.7% | 0.85× | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 55.3% | 63.4% | 41.3% | 1.53× | 1.58 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 44.7% | 36.6% | 58.7% | 0.62× | 2.73 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 28.4% | 28.3% | 15.4% | 1.84× | 3.54 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 15.6% | 14.2% | 22.9% | 0.62× | 7.03 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 95.6% | 95.7% | 84.8% | 1.13× | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 81.8% | 83.1% | 55.8% | 1.49× | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 60.2% | 61.7% | 27.1% | 2.28× | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 39.8% | 38.3% | 72.9% | 0.52× | 2.61 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 18.2% | 16.9% | 44.2% | 0.38× | 5.93 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 4.4% | 4.3% | 15.2% | 0.28× | 23.35 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig not to score in both halves | 71.2% | 73.7% | 72.0% | 1.02× | 1.36 |
| Bayern Munich to score in both halves | 59.4% | 58.2% | 35.9% | 1.62× | 1.72 |
| Bayern Munich not to score in both halves | 40.6% | 41.8% | 64.1% | 0.65× | 2.39 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to score in both halves | 28.8% | 26.3% | 28.0% | 0.94× | 3.80 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 76.0% | 67.5% | 59.5% | 1.13× | 1.48 |
| Only Bayern Munich scores | 20.8% | 22.2% | 19.9% | 1.12× | 4.50 |
| Only RasenBallsport Leipzig scores | 2.5% | 4.6% | 15.2% | 0.30× | 21.75 |
| Neither team scores | 0.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79× | 21.83 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more goals | 37.6% | 27.4% | 11.2% | 2.44× | 3.65 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 17.8% | 17.5% | 21.9% | 0.80× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 17.8% | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.55× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 14.2% | 12.1% | 19.0% | 0.64× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 8.6% | 7.6% | 19.7% | 0.39× | 13.11 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 3.4% | 4.5% | 12.0% | 0.37× | 22.43 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 0.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 0.77× | 22.47 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 29.0% | 28.5% | 35.9% | 0.79× | 3.51 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 28.4% | 28.5% | 15.4% | 1.86× | 3.51 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 26.9% | 28.4% | 26.1% | 1.09× | 3.52 |
| No goals in 1st half | 15.6% | 15.6% | 22.9% | 0.68× | 6.43 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 81.8% | 82.3% | 55.8% | 1.48× | 1.22 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 13.8% | 14.4% | 29.2% | 0.49× | 6.96 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 4.4% | 4.3% | 15.2% | 0.28× | 23.35 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig not to win both halves | 97.4% | 97.2% | 90.7% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| Bayern Munich not to win both halves | 69.6% | 70.6% | 83.9% | 0.84× | 1.42 |
| Bayern Munich to win both halves | 30.4% | 29.4% | 16.1% | 1.82× | 3.41 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to win both halves | 2.7% | 2.8% | 9.3% | 0.30× | 35.40 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win either half | 84.5% | 83.7% | 58.1% | 1.44× | 1.19 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to win neither half | 66.0% | 67.8% | 50.6% | 1.34× | 1.48 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to win either half | 34.0% | 32.2% | 49.4% | 0.65× | 3.10 |
| Bayern Munich to win neither half | 15.5% | 16.3% | 41.9% | 0.39× | 6.15 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig not to win to nil | 97.5% | 96.2% | 84.8% | 1.13× | 1.04 |
| Bayern Munich not to win to nil | 79.2% | 78.2% | 80.1% | 0.98× | 1.28 |
| Bayern Munich to win to nil | 20.8% | 21.8% | 19.9% | 1.10× | 4.58 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig to win to nil | 2.5% | 3.8% | 15.2% | 0.25× | 26.05 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich by 3+ | 37.6% | 34.7% | 12.0% | 2.90× | 2.88 |
| Bayern Munich by 2 | 18.3% | 17.0% | 12.9% | 1.32× | 5.87 |
| Bayern Munich by 1 | 17.5% | 17.0% | 17.3% | 0.98× | 5.87 |
| Draw | 13.2% | 11.7% | 24.7% | 0.48× | 8.51 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig by 1 | 7.8% | 7.2% | 16.5% | 0.44× | 13.89 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig by 2 | 3.6% | 2.7% | 10.0% | 0.27× | 36.72 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig by 3+ | 1.9% | 2.7% | 7.3% | 0.37× | 36.78 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 5.02 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 4' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 4' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rocco Reitz | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 5' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 7' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 11' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 14' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 14' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 18' |
Bayern Munich |
Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 19' |
Bayern Munich |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 23' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Ismael Saibari | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 29' |
Bayern Munich |
Ismael Saibari | 0.52 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 33' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Harry Kane |
| 37' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ismael Saibari |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Harry Kane |
| 48' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 50' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.98 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nathaniel Brown |
| 55' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 56' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 63' |
Bayern Munich |
Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lennart Karl |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.72 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 74' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lennart Karl |
| 81' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrija Maksimovic |
| 84' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Henrichs |
| 85' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrija Maksimovic |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 89' |
Bayern Munich |
Sacha Boey | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lennart Karl |
| 90' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Andrija Maksimovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Brajan Gruda |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brajan Gruda MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Nusa ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Klostermann DR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Seiwald Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Rômulo Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Andrija Maksimovic Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.30 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1.24 | 0.33 | 2.82 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0.69 | 0.45 | 2.22 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 2.12 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.38 | 1.73 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 1.45 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.96 |
| Harry Kane FW | 61 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1.22 | 0.97 | 2.09 |
| Ismael Saibari AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 61 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 1.11 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 1.08 |
| Serge Gnabry Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Josip Stanisic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 1.03 |
| Lennart Karl Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1.10 |
| Sacha Boey Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |