Bayern Munich v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 18 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 3
On target
13 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 2
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.89 – 0.39
Goals − xG
+2.87 – -0.47
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyBayern Munich win
82.4%
model 81.7%
Draw
10.6%
model 11.0%
Union Berlin win
7.0%
model 7.3%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (26 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 3-0 8.3%
- 3-1 8.1%
- 2-0 7.5%
- 2-1 7.4%
- 4-0 6.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 80.1% | Under 2.5 | 19.9% |
| BTTS yes | 60.0% | BTTS no | 40.0% |
| Bayern Munich 1+ | 96.4% | Bayern Munich 2+ | 84.3% |
| Union Berlin 1+ | 62.2% | Union Berlin 2+ | 25.5% |
Expected goals 3.31 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
99/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Bayern Munich (-1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 25%
63.8% fair odds 1.57
strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Bayern Munich (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 42%
82.8% fair odds 1.21
strong signal · 1330 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1948 Elo against 1431.
- Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Bayern Munich have an estimated 82.4% win probability, against 10.6% for the draw and 7.0% for Union Berlin. Expected goals from the ensemble are 3.31 for Bayern Munich and 0.97 for Union Berlin.
Why Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1948 Elo against 1431. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 10.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Union Berlin can win
Away from home Union Berlin average 0.98 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Bayern Munich were missing 1.52 expected goal involvements a match against 0.76.
Key players
Bayern Munich's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Harry Kane (0.92), Michael Olise (0.70), Luis Díaz (0.64). Union Berlin's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrej Ilic (0.44), Emmanuel Latte Lath (0.25), Oliver Burke (0.23).
Availability
1 of Bayern Munich's top three contributors did not start their last match. Bayern Munich changed goalkeeper for their last match. 2 of Union Berlin's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Union Berlin's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Bayern Munich: 70% possession, 19.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.42 xG a match from set pieces. Union Berlin: 50% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 17.3 faced, 0.77 xG a match from set pieces. Bayern Munich's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-18 04:30 · team_stats 2026-09-18 06:04 · availability 2026-09-18 14:39 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Bayern Munich are the model's most likely outcome at 82.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 3-0 at 8.3%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWDWWDW last 10
scored 35
from 31.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.5 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 13.8 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDWWDLLLWD last 10
scored 15
from 13.8 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 3.31–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 3.19–0.85 | 3-0 10% | 77% | 55% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.13–0.92 | 3-0 9% | 77% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win | 81.7% | 80.9% | 41.7% | 1.94× | 1.24 |
| Draw | 10.8% | 13.4% | 24.8% | 0.54× | 7.44 |
| Union Berlin to win | 7.4% | 8.2% | 33.7% | 0.24× | 12.23 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich & both teams score | 46.9% | 43.2% | 22.0% | 1.96× | 2.31 |
| Bayern Munich & not both score | 34.8% | 29.6% | 19.8% | 1.49× | 3.38 |
| Draw & both teams score | 9.6% | 8.3% | 19.2% | 0.43× | 11.99 |
| Union Berlin & both teams score | 5.3% | 8.3% | 18.6% | 0.45× | 12.01 |
| Union Berlin & not both score | 2.2% | 4.9% | 15.3% | 0.32× | 20.50 |
| Draw & not both score | 1.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 0.84× | 20.53 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich & over 1.5 | 77.6% | 75.0% | 35.6% | 2.11× | 1.33 |
| Bayern Munich & over 2.5 | 70.6% | 66.9% | 29.6% | 2.26× | 1.49 |
| Bayern Munich & over 3.5 | 55.6% | 54.7% | 20.3% | 2.70× | 1.83 |
| Bayern Munich & under 3.5 | 26.2% | 26.1% | 21.5% | 1.21× | 3.84 |
| Bayern Munich & under 2.5 | 11.1% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 1.06× | 7.77 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 9.6% | 7.9% | 19.2% | 0.41× | 12.62 |
| Union Berlin & over 1.5 | 6.2% | 7.9% | 27.9% | 0.28× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 0.83× | 12.62 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 5.4% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 0.51× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 0.83× | 12.62 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 5.4% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 0.51× | 12.62 |
| Union Berlin & over 2.5 | 5.6% | 7.9% | 23.7% | 0.33× | 12.62 |
| Bayern Munich & under 1.5 | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 0.77× | 20.83 |
| Union Berlin & under 3.5 | 4.2% | 4.8% | 19.7% | 0.24× | 20.82 |
| Union Berlin & over 3.5 | 3.2% | 4.8% | 14.2% | 0.34× | 20.83 |
| Union Berlin & under 2.5 | 1.9% | 4.8% | 10.1% | 0.47× | 20.84 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 1.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 0.83× | 20.84 |
| Union Berlin & under 1.5 | 1.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 0.81× | 20.84 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (1UP) | 89.6% | 90.3% | 59.7% | 1.51× | 1.11 |
| Union Berlin (1UP) | 27.1% | 26.7% | 52.8% | 0.51× | 3.74 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (2UP) | 81.7% | 85.5% | 45.0% | 1.90× | 1.17 |
| Union Berlin (2UP) | 7.4% | 8.5% | 36.6% | 0.23× | 11.77 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win 2nd half | 69.2% | 62.6% | 37.2% | 1.68× | 1.60 |
| 2nd half drawn | 20.1% | 23.0% | 33.6% | 0.68× | 4.36 |
| Union Berlin to win 2nd half | 10.7% | 12.0% | 29.4% | 0.41× | 8.35 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin under 1.5 in 2nd half | 87.6% | 87.1% | 79.5% | 1.09× | 1.15 |
| Union Berlin under 0.5 in 2nd half | 54.6% | 53.3% | 43.3% | 1.23× | 1.88 |
| Union Berlin over 0.5 in 2nd half | 45.4% | 46.7% | 56.7% | 0.82× | 2.14 |
| Union Berlin over 1.5 in 2nd half | 12.4% | 12.9% | 20.5% | 0.63× | 7.74 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 2nd half | 85.7% | 87.6% | 62.5% | 1.40× | 1.14 |
| Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 2nd half | 57.8% | 58.2% | 25.5% | 2.28× | 1.72 |
| Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 2nd half | 42.2% | 41.8% | 74.5% | 0.56× | 2.39 |
| Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 2nd half | 14.3% | 12.4% | 37.5% | 0.33× | 8.07 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (+0.5) | 92.6% | 92.1% | 66.3% | 1.39× | 1.09 |
| Bayern Munich (-0.5) | 81.7% | 82.5% | 41.7% | 1.98× | 1.21 |
| Bayern Munich (-1.5) | 64.9% | 62.9% | 24.8% | 2.54× | 1.59 |
| Union Berlin (+2.5) | 54.6% | 52.5% | 88.0% | 0.60× | 1.90 |
| Bayern Munich (-2.5) | 45.4% | 47.5% | 12.0% | 3.95× | 2.11 |
| Union Berlin (+1.5) | 35.1% | 37.1% | 75.2% | 0.49× | 2.70 |
| Union Berlin (+0.5) | 18.3% | 17.5% | 58.3% | 0.30× | 5.70 |
| Union Berlin (-0.5) | 7.4% | 7.9% | 33.7% | 0.23× | 12.69 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin to concede | 96.6% | 96.4% | 79.1% | 1.22× | 1.04 |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 3.4% | 3.6% | 20.9% | 0.17× | 27.62 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin to concede in 1st half | 76.4% | 77.3% | 51.9% | 1.49× | 1.29 |
| Union Berlin clean sheet in 1st half | 23.6% | 22.7% | 48.1% | 0.47× | 4.41 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin to concede in 2nd half | 85.7% | 89.0% | 62.5% | 1.42× | 1.12 |
| Union Berlin clean sheet in 2nd half | 14.3% | 11.0% | 37.5% | 0.29× | 9.07 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin under 3.5 goals | 98.0% | 97.5% | 92.7% | 1.05× | 1.03 |
| Union Berlin under 2.5 goals | 91.6% | 92.3% | 78.9% | 1.17× | 1.08 |
| Union Berlin under 1.5 goals | 72.8% | 71.9% | 57.1% | 1.26× | 1.39 |
| Union Berlin over 0.5 goals | 64.0% | 63.2% | 74.6% | 0.85× | 1.58 |
| Union Berlin under 0.5 goals | 36.0% | 36.8% | 25.4% | 1.45× | 2.72 |
| Union Berlin over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 28.1% | 42.9% | 0.66× | 3.55 |
| Union Berlin over 2.5 goals | 8.4% | 7.7% | 21.1% | 0.37× | 12.99 |
| Union Berlin over 3.5 goals | 2.0% | 2.5% | 7.3% | 0.34× | 39.91 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half | 93.4% | 94.1% | 85.6% | 1.10× | 1.06 |
| Union Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half | 65.9% | 68.1% | 54.4% | 1.25× | 1.47 |
| Union Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half | 34.1% | 31.9% | 45.6% | 0.70× | 3.13 |
| Union Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half | 6.6% | 5.9% | 14.4% | 0.41× | 17.05 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin scores equally in both | 45.7% | 48.0% | 39.1% | 1.23× | 2.08 |
| Union Berlin scores more in 2nd half | 33.5% | 33.9% | 36.7% | 0.92× | 2.95 |
| Union Berlin scores more in 1st half | 20.9% | 22.2% | 24.4% | 0.91× | 4.51 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (away no bet) | 88.3% | 84.5% | 62.7% | 1.35× | 1.18 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 11.7% | 15.5% | 37.3% | 0.42× | 6.44 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin even goals | 56.5% | 56.9% | 53.2% | 1.07× | 1.76 |
| Union Berlin odd goals | 43.5% | 43.1% | 46.8% | 0.92× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 59.9% | 55.7% | 75.5% | 0.74× | 1.80 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 44.3% | 24.5% | 1.81× | 2.26 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 87.7% | 84.2% | 72.5% | 1.16× | 1.19 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 12.4% | 15.8% | 27.5% | 0.57× | 6.34 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 84.2% | 81.4% | 66.9% | 1.22× | 1.23 |
| Bayern Munich to score 2+ in a row | 79.1% | 76.0% | 42.3% | 1.80× | 1.32 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 54.7% | 51.1% | 29.7% | 1.72× | 1.96 |
| Bayern Munich to score 3+ in a row | 52.8% | 51.0% | 17.8% | 2.86× | 1.96 |
| Union Berlin to score 2+ in a row | 14.9% | 12.3% | 34.5% | 0.36× | 8.15 |
| Union Berlin to score 3+ in a row | 2.6% | 2.5% | 12.8% | 0.20× | 39.61 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any other score | 25.4% | 19.6% | 5.6% | 3.49× | 5.10 |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.22× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.08× | 13.50 |
| 3-0 | 7.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 2.64× | 13.50 |
| 3-1 | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.22× | 13.50 |
| 4-0 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.06× | 13.50 |
| 4-1 | 6.9% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 3.39× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 6.9% | 0.25× | 58.34 |
| 1-3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.35× | 58.35 |
| 1-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.00× | 58.35 |
| 2-2 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 6.4% | 0.27× | 58.33 |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.65× | 58.35 |
| 2-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 58.35 |
| 3-2 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 0.50× | 58.33 |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.58× | 58.35 |
| 3-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.22× | 58.35 |
| 4-2 | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 58.33 |
| 4-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.83× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.66× | 58.35 |
| 0-0 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 0.30× | 58.35 |
| 0-1 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 0.29× | 58.35 |
| 0-2 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 58.35 |
| 0-3 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.58× | 58.35 |
| 0-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.10× | 58.35 |
| 1-0 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 6.2% | 0.27× | 58.33 |
| 1-1 | 4.2% | 1.7% | 9.8% | 0.17× | 58.33 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (2nd half DNB) | 86.7% | 86.4% | 55.9% | 1.55× | 1.16 |
| Union Berlin (2nd half DNB) | 13.3% | 13.6% | 44.1% | 0.31× | 7.35 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich leading at HT (DNB) | 85.7% | 86.7% | 55.5% | 1.56× | 1.15 |
| Union Berlin leading at HT (DNB) | 14.3% | 13.3% | 44.5% | 0.30× | 7.52 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or draw (1X) | 92.6% | 91.8% | 66.3% | 1.39× | 1.09 |
| Bayern Munich or Union Berlin (12) | 89.2% | 86.6% | 75.2% | 1.15× | 1.16 |
| Union Berlin or draw (X2) | 18.3% | 19.1% | 58.3% | 0.33× | 5.24 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or draw at HT | 89.5% | 88.0% | 70.5% | 1.25× | 1.14 |
| Bayern Munich or Union Berlin at HT | 73.6% | 74.7% | 66.3% | 1.13× | 1.34 |
| Union Berlin or draw at HT | 36.9% | 28.9% | 63.1% | 0.46× | 3.46 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or draw (1UP) | 92.6% | 93.6% | 73.4% | 1.28× | 1.07 |
| Union Berlin or draw (1UP) | 27.1% | 31.6% | 65.0% | 0.49× | 3.16 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or draw in 2nd half | 89.3% | 88.0% | 70.6% | 1.25× | 1.14 |
| Bayern Munich or Union Berlin in 2nd half | 79.9% | 77.0% | 66.4% | 1.16× | 1.30 |
| Union Berlin or draw in 2nd half | 30.8% | 37.4% | 62.8% | 0.60× | 2.67 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half drawn | 58.8% | 58.2% | 46.4% | 1.25× | 1.72 |
| A half drawn | 41.2% | 41.8% | 53.6% | 0.78× | 2.39 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (DNB) | 91.7% | 93.2% | 55.3% | 1.69× | 1.07 |
| Union Berlin (DNB) | 8.3% | 6.8% | 44.7% | 0.15× | 14.62 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to score first | 75.9% | 79.8% | 50.8% | 1.57× | 1.25 |
| Union Berlin to score first | 22.9% | 22.9% | 43.6% | 0.53× | 4.37 |
| No goal scored | 1.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 0.74× | 23.33 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | 56.5% | 59.4% | 0.95× | 1.77 |
| Not both teams to score | 38.2% | 43.5% | 40.6% | 1.07× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 57.6% | 47.4% | 49.8% | 0.95× | 2.11 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 24.0% | 27.8% | 12.9% | 2.15× | 3.60 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 14.2% | 12.4% | 27.8% | 0.45× | 8.09 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 4.2% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 0.48× | 21.03 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 76.8% | 79.6% | 79.9% | 1.00× | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 23.2% | 20.4% | 20.1% | 1.01× | 4.90 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 61.1% | 65.5% | 65.3% | 1.00× | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 38.9% | 34.5% | 34.7% | 1.00× | 2.90 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 45.2% | 53.5% | 51.6% | 1.04× | 1.87 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 28.8% | 26.7% | 28.1% | 0.95× | 3.75 |
| Both score 1st half only | 15.9% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 1.10× | 6.53 |
| Both score in both halves | 10.1% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 1.58× | 9.39 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 74.0% | 80.1% | 79.5% | 1.01× | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 26.0% | 19.9% | 20.5% | 0.97× | 5.03 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 77.9% | 79.7% | 67.3% | 1.18× | 1.26 |
| A half without a goal | 22.1% | 20.3% | 32.7% | 0.62× | 4.92 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 goals | 48.7% | 47.3% | 40.1% | 1.18× | 2.12 |
| 2-3 goals | 29.3% | 26.6% | 38.8% | 0.69× | 3.75 |
| 7+ goals | 15.4% | 20.2% | 3.7% | 5.41× | 4.94 |
| 0-1 goals | 6.6% | 7.6% | 17.6% | 0.43× | 13.10 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 35.9% | 31.8% | 1.13× | 2.79 |
| Union Berlin to score exactly 0 | 36.0% | 35.9% | 25.4% | 1.41× | 2.79 |
| Union Berlin to score exactly 2 | 18.8% | 19.6% | 22.0% | 0.89× | 5.11 |
| Union Berlin to score 3+ | 8.4% | 8.6% | 21.1% | 0.41× | 11.67 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to score 3+ | 65.8% | 58.5% | 27.5% | 2.13× | 1.71 |
| Bayern Munich to score exactly 2 | 19.4% | 18.8% | 22.6% | 0.83× | 5.31 |
| Bayern Munich to score exactly 1 | 11.4% | 14.3% | 29.3% | 0.49× | 6.98 |
| Bayern Munich to score exactly 0 | 3.4% | 6.2% | 20.9% | 0.30× | 16.14 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich leading at HT | 63.1% | 71.1% | 36.9% | 1.93× | 1.41 |
| Draw at HT | 26.4% | 25.3% | 33.8% | 0.75× | 3.95 |
| Union Berlin leading at HT | 10.5% | 12.0% | 29.5% | 0.41× | 8.33 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich -1: 1 | 64.9% | 62.5% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Bayern Munich -1: 2 | 18.3% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.72 |
| Bayern Munich -1: X | 16.8% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.72 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (0:1) | 64.9% | 61.5% | 24.8% | 2.48× | 1.63 |
| Union Berlin (0:1) | 18.3% | 17.8% | 58.3% | 0.31× | 5.61 |
| Draw (0:1) | 16.8% | 17.8% | 17.0% | 1.05× | 5.61 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (0:2) | 45.4% | 51.3% | 12.0% | 4.27× | 1.95 |
| Union Berlin (0:2) | 35.1% | 38.3% | 75.2% | 0.51× | 2.61 |
| Draw (0:2) | 19.5% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 1.18× | 6.56 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin (0:3) | 54.6% | 48.2% | 88.0% | 0.55× | 2.08 |
| Bayern Munich (0:3) | 27.7% | 23.0% | 7.0% | 3.28× | 4.35 |
| Draw (0:3) | 17.7% | 16.1% | 5.1% | 3.14× | 6.19 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin (0:4) | 72.3% | 77.8% | 93.0% | 0.84× | 1.29 |
| Bayern Munich (0:4) | 14.8% | 9.9% | 2.0% | 4.86× | 10.14 |
| Draw (0:4) | 13.0% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 1.89× | 10.31 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (1:0) | 92.6% | 92.6% | 66.3% | 1.40× | 1.08 |
| Draw (1:0) | 5.1% | 6.9% | 16.4% | 0.42× | 14.50 |
| Union Berlin (1:0) | 2.4% | 3.3% | 17.5% | 0.19× | 30.62 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (2:0) | 97.6% | 96.8% | 82.5% | 1.17× | 1.03 |
| Draw (2:0) | 1.8% | 2.3% | 10.1% | 0.23× | 43.53 |
| Union Berlin (2:0) | 0.6% | 2.3% | 7.5% | 0.31× | 43.60 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 53.1% | 50.7% | 47.2% | 1.07× | 1.97 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 28.2% | 26.4% | 25.9% | 1.02× | 3.79 |
| Halves equal | 18.8% | 19.0% | 27.0% | 0.70× | 5.26 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to concede | 64.0% | 63.7% | 74.6% | 0.85× | 1.57 |
| Bayern Munich clean sheet | 36.0% | 36.3% | 25.4% | 1.43× | 2.75 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich clean sheet in 1st half | 65.9% | 68.2% | 54.4% | 1.25× | 1.47 |
| Bayern Munich to concede in 1st half | 34.1% | 31.8% | 45.6% | 0.70× | 3.15 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich clean sheet in 2nd half | 54.6% | 53.2% | 43.3% | 1.23× | 1.88 |
| Bayern Munich to concede in 2nd half | 45.4% | 46.8% | 56.7% | 0.82× | 2.14 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich over 0.5 goals | 96.6% | 96.4% | 79.1% | 1.22× | 1.04 |
| Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | 87.2% | 49.9% | 1.75× | 1.15 |
| Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 67.9% | 27.5% | 2.47× | 1.47 |
| Bayern Munich under 3.5 goals | 56.2% | 58.7% | 88.5% | 0.66× | 1.71 |
| Bayern Munich over 3.5 goals | 43.8% | 41.3% | 11.5% | 3.58× | 2.42 |
| Bayern Munich under 2.5 goals | 34.2% | 32.1% | 72.5% | 0.44× | 3.12 |
| Bayern Munich under 1.5 goals | 14.8% | 12.8% | 50.1% | 0.25× | 7.84 |
| Bayern Munich under 0.5 goals | 3.4% | 3.7% | 20.9% | 0.17× | 27.39 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 1st half | 76.4% | 77.3% | 51.9% | 1.49× | 1.29 |
| Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 1st half | 57.7% | 57.6% | 80.8% | 0.71× | 1.74 |
| Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 1st half | 42.3% | 42.5% | 19.2% | 2.21× | 2.36 |
| Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 1st half | 23.6% | 22.7% | 48.1% | 0.47× | 4.41 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich scores more in 2nd half | 49.2% | 48.3% | 38.3% | 1.26× | 2.07 |
| Bayern Munich scores more in 1st half | 28.7% | 27.9% | 25.5% | 1.10× | 3.59 |
| Bayern Munich scores equally in both | 22.1% | 21.4% | 36.4% | 0.59× | 4.67 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 59.3% | 56.4% | 42.4% | 1.33× | 1.77 |
| Union Berlin (home no bet) | 40.7% | 43.6% | 57.6% | 0.76× | 2.30 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich even goals | 50.1% | 50.6% | 52.1% | 0.97× | 1.97 |
| Bayern Munich odd goals | 49.9% | 49.4% | 47.9% | 1.03× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1-0 | 22.5% | 24.1% | 19.5% | 1.23× | 4.15 |
| Any other HT score | 18.4% | 18.8% | 6.6% | 2.86× | 5.32 |
| HT 2-0 | 16.2% | 18.7% | 9.7% | 1.93× | 5.34 |
| HT 0-0 | 15.5% | 18.7% | 23.0% | 0.82× | 5.34 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.4% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 0.73× | 14.07 |
| HT 2-1 | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 1.68× | 14.11 |
| HT 0-1 | 6.5% | 7.1% | 16.6% | 0.43× | 14.11 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 0.68× | 42.78 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.3% | 2.3% | 7.3% | 0.32× | 42.82 |
| HT 2-2 | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.87× | 42.82 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich at HT / Bayern Munich at FT | 59.4% | 61.1% | 28.3% | 2.16× | 1.64 |
| Draw at HT / Bayern Munich at FT | 18.3% | 16.7% | 10.5% | 1.60× | 5.98 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 5.3% | 6.1% | 13.8% | 0.44× | 16.44 |
| Union Berlin at HT / Bayern Munich at FT | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.05× | 29.05 |
| Union Berlin at HT / Union Berlin at FT | 3.8% | 3.4% | 20.5% | 0.17× | 29.07 |
| Bayern Munich at HT / Draw at FT | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 0.67× | 29.10 |
| Draw at HT / Union Berlin at FT | 2.8% | 3.4% | 9.8% | 0.35× | 29.10 |
| Union Berlin at HT / Draw at FT | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 0.56× | 29.11 |
| Bayern Munich at HT / Union Berlin at FT | 0.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 0.91× | 29.18 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to score last | 75.9% | 76.4% | 49.8% | 1.53× | 1.31 |
| Union Berlin to score last | 22.9% | 26.4% | 44.5% | 0.59× | 3.79 |
| No goal scored | 1.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 0.74× | 23.33 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 98.8% | 95.6% | 94.2% | 1.02× | 1.05 |
| Bayern Munich to lead by 1 at any time | 89.6% | 91.0% | 59.7% | 1.52× | 1.10 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 77.4% | 78.2% | 55.9% | 1.40× | 1.28 |
| Bayern Munich to lead by 2 at any time | 71.7% | 74.0% | 33.1% | 2.23× | 1.35 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 51.5% | 50.6% | 25.9% | 1.95× | 1.97 |
| Bayern Munich to lead by 3 at any time | 50.1% | 50.6% | 15.8% | 3.21× | 1.98 |
| Union Berlin to lead by 1 at any time | 27.1% | 25.4% | 52.8% | 0.48× | 3.94 |
| Union Berlin to lead by 2 at any time | 6.5% | 6.7% | 23.6% | 0.28× | 14.88 |
| Union Berlin to lead by 3 at any time | 1.4% | 1.6% | 10.3% | 0.15× | 63.93 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-6 goals | 78.0% | 78.7% | 78.8% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 1-5 goals | 70.8% | 72.4% | 83.5% | 0.87× | 1.38 |
| 3-6 goals | 66.2% | 68.8% | 59.0% | 1.17× | 1.45 |
| 2-5 goals | 65.5% | 68.8% | 71.6% | 0.96× | 1.45 |
| 1-4 goals | 53.9% | 53.1% | 72.4% | 0.73× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 53.6% | 53.1% | 51.8% | 1.03× | 1.88 |
| 2-4 goals | 48.5% | 48.6% | 60.5% | 0.80× | 2.06 |
| 4-6 goals | 48.7% | 48.6% | 40.1% | 1.21× | 2.06 |
| 3-4 goals | 36.7% | 39.2% | 40.7% | 0.96× | 2.55 |
| 4-5 goals | 36.2% | 39.2% | 32.9% | 1.19× | 2.55 |
| 1-3 goals | 34.6% | 35.2% | 50.7% | 0.70× | 2.84 |
| 5-6 goals | 29.5% | 30.3% | 18.4% | 1.65× | 3.30 |
| 2-3 goals | 29.3% | 30.3% | 38.8% | 0.78× | 3.30 |
| 1-2 goals | 17.2% | 18.8% | 31.8% | 0.59× | 5.32 |
| 7+ goals | 15.4% | 18.8% | 3.7% | 5.02× | 5.33 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich never behind | 71.7% | 76.9% | 47.2% | 1.63× | 1.30 |
| Union Berlin never behind | 9.2% | 5.1% | 40.3% | 0.13× | 19.74 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 50.0% | 50.9% | 44.9% | 1.13× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.0% | 49.1% | 55.1% | 0.89× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 51.2% | 51.9% | 52.5% | 0.99× | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 48.8% | 48.2% | 47.5% | 1.01× | 2.08 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 50.3% | 52.0% | 53.0% | 0.98× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 49.7% | 48.0% | 47.0% | 1.02× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 98.8% | 95.4% | 94.2% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93.4% | 92.2% | 82.4% | 1.12× | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.6% | 82.3% | 62.6% | 1.32× | 1.22 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 72.1% | 72.4% | 89.1% | 0.81× | 1.38 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 64.2% | 61.7% | 43.7% | 1.41× | 1.62 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 55.1% | 58.6% | 78.0% | 0.75× | 1.71 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 44.9% | 41.4% | 22.0% | 1.88× | 2.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 38.3% | 56.3% | 0.68× | 2.61 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 27.9% | 27.6% | 10.9% | 2.53× | 3.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 18.4% | 17.7% | 37.4% | 0.47× | 5.65 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.6% | 7.8% | 17.6% | 0.44× | 12.89 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 1.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.79× | 21.91 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 92.5% | 92.4% | 78.0% | 1.18× | 1.08 |
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 82.4% | 81.1% | 96.0% | 0.85× | 1.23 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 77.7% | 75.9% | 53.8% | 1.41× | 1.32 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 66.3% | 67.4% | 87.7% | 0.77× | 1.48 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 55.6% | 55.8% | 28.1% | 1.99× | 1.79 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 44.4% | 44.2% | 71.9% | 0.61× | 2.26 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 33.7% | 32.6% | 12.3% | 2.65× | 3.07 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 22.3% | 24.1% | 46.2% | 0.52× | 4.15 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 17.6% | 18.9% | 4.0% | 4.69× | 5.29 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 7.5% | 7.6% | 22.0% | 0.35× | 13.14 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 84.5% | 86.1% | 77.0% | 1.12× | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 71.4% | 71.2% | 85.0% | 0.84× | 1.41 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 55.5% | 63.0% | 41.3% | 1.53× | 1.59 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 44.5% | 37.0% | 58.8% | 0.63× | 2.70 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 28.6% | 28.8% | 15.0% | 1.92× | 3.47 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 15.5% | 13.9% | 23.0% | 0.60× | 7.21 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 92.2% | 89.5% | 84.5% | 1.06× | 1.12 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 72.2% | 77.7% | 55.8% | 1.39× | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 53.2% | 53.1% | 73.3% | 0.72× | 1.88 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 46.8% | 46.9% | 26.7% | 1.76× | 2.13 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 27.8% | 22.3% | 44.2% | 0.50× | 4.49 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 7.8% | 10.5% | 15.5% | 0.68× | 9.52 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin not to score in both halves | 84.5% | 84.3% | 72.2% | 1.17× | 1.19 |
| Bayern Munich to score in both halves | 65.5% | 69.8% | 35.3% | 1.98× | 1.43 |
| Bayern Munich not to score in both halves | 34.5% | 30.2% | 64.7% | 0.47× | 3.32 |
| Union Berlin to score in both halves | 15.5% | 15.7% | 27.8% | 0.57× | 6.35 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 61.8% | 60.1% | 59.4% | 1.01× | 1.66 |
| Only Bayern Munich scores | 34.8% | 33.4% | 19.8% | 1.68× | 3.00 |
| Only Union Berlin scores | 2.2% | 4.6% | 15.3% | 0.30× | 21.60 |
| Neither team scores | 1.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 0.80× | 21.64 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 or more goals | 27.9% | 24.9% | 10.9% | 2.28× | 4.02 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 19.2% | 17.5% | 21.8% | 0.80× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 17.4% | 17.5% | 19.0% | 0.92× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 17.0% | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.55× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 2 goals | 11.8% | 12.1% | 20.0% | 0.61× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 5.4% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 0.63× | 13.14 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 1.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 0.77× | 22.39 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 28.9% | 28.6% | 35.9% | 0.80× | 3.50 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 28.6% | 28.6% | 15.0% | 1.91× | 3.50 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 27.0% | 28.5% | 26.4% | 1.08× | 3.51 |
| No goals in 1st half | 15.5% | 15.2% | 23.0% | 0.66× | 6.58 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 72.2% | 69.7% | 55.8% | 1.25× | 1.43 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 19.9% | 17.3% | 28.9% | 0.60× | 5.79 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 7.8% | 9.9% | 15.5% | 0.64× | 10.06 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin not to win both halves | 98.9% | 97.3% | 90.6% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| Bayern Munich not to win both halves | 56.3% | 56.2% | 83.9% | 0.67× | 1.78 |
| Bayern Munich to win both halves | 43.7% | 43.8% | 16.1% | 2.72× | 2.28 |
| Union Berlin to win both halves | 1.1% | 2.7% | 9.4% | 0.29× | 37.41 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich to win either half | 88.6% | 92.5% | 58.0% | 1.60× | 1.08 |
| Union Berlin to win neither half | 80.0% | 80.0% | 50.5% | 1.59× | 1.25 |
| Union Berlin to win either half | 20.0% | 20.0% | 49.5% | 0.40× | 5.00 |
| Bayern Munich to win neither half | 11.4% | 7.5% | 42.0% | 0.18× | 13.34 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin not to win to nil | 97.8% | 96.2% | 84.7% | 1.14× | 1.04 |
| Bayern Munich not to win to nil | 65.2% | 69.6% | 80.2% | 0.87× | 1.44 |
| Bayern Munich to win to nil | 34.8% | 30.4% | 19.8% | 1.53× | 3.29 |
| Union Berlin to win to nil | 2.2% | 3.8% | 15.3% | 0.25× | 26.09 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich by 3+ | 45.4% | 47.6% | 12.0% | 3.96× | 2.10 |
| Bayern Munich by 2 | 19.5% | 17.0% | 12.9% | 1.31× | 5.88 |
| Bayern Munich by 1 | 16.8% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 1.00× | 5.89 |
| Draw | 10.8% | 11.8% | 24.8% | 0.47× | 8.49 |
| Union Berlin by 1 | 5.1% | 7.2% | 16.4% | 0.44× | 13.89 |
| Union Berlin by 2 | 1.8% | 2.7% | 10.1% | 0.27× | 36.74 |
| Union Berlin by 3+ | 0.6% | 2.7% | 7.5% | 0.36× | 36.78 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 4.13 xGUnion Berlin 0.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 15' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 17' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alphonso Davies |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Jonathan Tah | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 23' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Josip Stanisic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 38' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 42' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Jamal Musiala |
| 43' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 49' |
 Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Skarke |
| 50' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 55' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 57' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 63' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kim Min-Jae |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Ismael Saibari | 0.63 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Bayern Munich |
Ismael Saibari | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alphonso Davies |
| 72' |
Bayern Munich |
Ismael Saibari | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 72' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tom Bischof |
| 75' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tom Bischof |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Tom Bischof | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Bayern Munich |
Ismael Saibari | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 84' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Rothe DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Felix Uduokhai DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rani Khedira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michel Aebischer DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andras Schafer AML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.00 |
| Janik Haberer AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emmanuel Latte Lath FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Livan Burcu Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zeno Van den Bosch Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.74 | 0.42 | 1.35 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Jamal Musiala AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.85 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1.30 |
| Alphonso Davies DL | 85 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 1.32 |
| Harry Kane FW | 79 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.26 |
| Kim Min-Jae Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.90 |
| Ismael Saibari Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.62 | 1.30 |
| Serge Gnabry Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nathaniel Brown Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |