Bayern Munich v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 18 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Bayern Munich

14:30

Union Berlin

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 299h before kick-off

Bayern Munich win

82.6%

model 80.2%

Draw

10.3%

model 11.6%

Union Berlin win

7.1%

model 8.2%

83107

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (19 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

3-1 8.2%
3-0 7.9%
2-1 7.5%
2-0 7.3%
4-1 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	80.1%	Under 2.5	19.9%
BTTS yes	61.8%	BTTS no	38.2%
Bayern Munich 1+	96.2%	Bayern Munich 2+	83.6%
Union Berlin 1+	64.3%	Union Berlin 2+	27.5%

Expected goals 3.26 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

85/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Bayern Munich (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 25%

63.5% fair odds 1.58

strong signal · 877 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 50%

82.8% fair odds 1.21

strong signal · 1110 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1947 Elo against 1446.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
They have had 21 days' rest to Union Berlin's 13.

Risk factors

Union Berlin have scored 2.40 a match from 1.47 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bayern Munich have an estimated 82.6% win probability, against 10.3% for the draw and 7.1% for Union Berlin. Expected goals from the ensemble are 3.26 for Bayern Munich and 1.03 for Union Berlin.

Why Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich carry the stronger rating, 1947 Elo against 1446. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. They have had 21 days' rest to Union Berlin's 13.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.3%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Union Berlin can win

Away from home Union Berlin average 0.98 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Bayern Munich were missing 1.21 expected goal involvements a match against 0.88.

Key players

Bayern Munich's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Harry Kane (0.93), Michael Olise (0.71), Luis Díaz (0.63). Union Berlin's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrej Ilic (0.44), Emmanuel Latte Lath (0.26), Oliver Burke (0.23).

Availability

2 of Union Berlin's top three contributors did not start their last match. Union Berlin changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Union Berlin's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Bayern Munich: 63% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.50 xG a match from set pieces. Union Berlin: 42% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 16.5 faced, 0.67 xG a match from set pieces. Bayern Munich's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Bayern Munich are the model's most likely outcome at 82.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 3-1 at 8.2%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 85/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWWWDWWWD last 10 scored 34 from 32.8 xG conceded 12 from 15.2 xG

Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLLDWWDL last 10 scored 16 from 14.7 xG conceded 23 from 23.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	80128	3.26–1.03	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	81127	3.11–0.87	3-0 9%	76%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win	81.7%	80.7%	41.6%	1.94×	1.24
Draw	10.8%	13.3%	24.8%	0.53×	7.54
Union Berlin to win	7.4%	8.2%	33.7%	0.24×	12.21

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich & both teams score	46.9%	43.0%	22.2%	1.94×	2.33
Bayern Munich & not both score	34.8%	29.7%	19.6%	1.52×	3.36
Draw & both teams score	9.6%	8.4%	19.1%	0.44×	11.92
Union Berlin & both teams score	5.3%	8.4%	18.4%	0.46×	11.94
Union Berlin & not both score	2.2%	4.9%	15.5%	0.31×	20.62
Draw & not both score	1.2%	4.8%	5.9%	0.83×	20.65

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich & over 1.5	77.6%	74.7%	35.4%	2.11×	1.34
Bayern Munich & over 2.5	70.6%	66.8%	29.4%	2.27×	1.50
Bayern Munich & over 3.5	55.6%	54.9%	20.3%	2.71×	1.82
Bayern Munich & under 3.5	26.2%	26.0%	21.5%	1.21×	3.84
Bayern Munich & under 2.5	11.1%	12.9%	12.3%	1.04×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	19.1%	0.41×	12.69
Union Berlin & over 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	27.8%	0.28×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Draw & under 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	15.5%	0.51×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Draw & under 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	15.5%	0.51×	12.70
Union Berlin & over 2.5	5.6%	7.9%	23.6%	0.33×	12.70
Bayern Munich & under 1.5	4.1%	4.8%	6.3%	0.75×	20.93
Union Berlin & under 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	19.8%	0.24×	20.93
Union Berlin & over 3.5	3.2%	4.8%	14.1%	0.34×	20.94
Union Berlin & under 2.5	1.9%	4.8%	10.3%	0.46×	20.95
Draw & under 1.5	1.2%	4.8%	5.9%	0.82×	20.95
Union Berlin & under 1.5	1.2%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (1UP)	89.6%	90.3%	59.6%	1.52×	1.11
Union Berlin (1UP)	27.1%	26.7%	52.9%	0.50×	3.74

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (2UP)	81.7%	85.5%	45.0%	1.90×	1.17
Union Berlin (2UP)	7.4%	8.6%	36.6%	0.23×	11.69

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win 2nd half	69.2%	63.5%	37.1%	1.71×	1.58
2nd half drawn	20.1%	23.0%	33.4%	0.69×	4.35
Union Berlin to win 2nd half	10.7%	12.0%	29.6%	0.40×	8.35

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (+0.5)	92.6%	92.1%	66.3%	1.39×	1.09
Bayern Munich (-0.5)	81.7%	82.4%	41.6%	1.98×	1.21
Bayern Munich (-1.5)	64.9%	62.9%	24.7%	2.55×	1.59
Union Berlin (+2.5)	54.6%	52.4%	88.3%	0.59×	1.91
Bayern Munich (-2.5)	45.4%	47.6%	11.7%	4.07×	2.10
Union Berlin (+1.5)	35.1%	37.1%	75.3%	0.49×	2.70
Union Berlin (+0.5)	18.3%	17.6%	58.4%	0.30×	5.68
Union Berlin (-0.5)	7.4%	7.9%	33.7%	0.23×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede	96.6%	96.3%	78.8%	1.22×	1.04
Union Berlin clean sheet	3.4%	3.7%	21.2%	0.17×	27.08

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede in 1st half	76.4%	77.3%	51.8%	1.49×	1.29
Union Berlin clean sheet in 1st half	23.6%	22.7%	48.2%	0.47×	4.41

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 3.5 goals	98.0%	97.5%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Union Berlin under 2.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	79.0%	1.17×	1.08
Union Berlin under 1.5 goals	72.8%	72.0%	57.1%	1.26×	1.39
Union Berlin over 0.5 goals	64.0%	63.0%	74.7%	0.84×	1.59
Union Berlin under 0.5 goals	36.0%	37.0%	25.3%	1.46×	2.70
Union Berlin over 1.5 goals	27.2%	28.0%	42.9%	0.65×	3.57
Union Berlin over 2.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	21.0%	0.36×	13.03
Union Berlin over 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.5%	7.4%	0.33×	40.77

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half	93.4%	94.2%	85.7%	1.10×	1.06
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half	65.9%	68.2%	54.4%	1.25×	1.47
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.8%	45.6%	0.70×	3.14
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half	6.6%	5.8%	14.3%	0.41×	17.28

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (away no bet)	88.3%	84.8%	62.6%	1.35×	1.18
Draw (away no bet)	11.7%	15.2%	37.4%	0.41×	6.58

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin even goals	56.5%	56.9%	53.2%	1.07×	1.76
Union Berlin odd goals	43.5%	43.1%	46.8%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	59.9%	55.7%	75.8%	0.74×	1.80
Both halves over 1.5 goals	40.1%	44.3%	24.2%	1.83×	2.26

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	87.7%	84.2%	72.3%	1.17×	1.19
Both halves under 1.5 goals	12.4%	15.8%	27.7%	0.57×	6.34

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	84.2%	81.4%	66.9%	1.22×	1.23
Bayern Munich to score 2+ in a row	79.1%	76.2%	42.3%	1.80×	1.31
Either team to score 3+ in a row	54.7%	51.4%	29.5%	1.75×	1.94
Bayern Munich to score 3+ in a row	52.8%	51.3%	17.6%	2.92×	1.95
Union Berlin to score 2+ in a row	14.9%	12.2%	34.7%	0.35×	8.17
Union Berlin to score 3+ in a row	2.6%	2.6%	12.8%	0.20×	38.97

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	25.4%	19.9%	5.4%	3.69×	5.04
2-0	7.0%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
2-1	7.1%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.48
3-0	7.9%	7.4%	2.7%	2.76×	13.48
3-1	8.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
4-0	6.7%	7.4%	3.6%	2.04×	13.48
4-1	6.9%	7.4%	2.2%	3.35×	13.48
1-2	2.2%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.48
1-3	0.7%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.49
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.49
2-2	3.7%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.47
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.49
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.47
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.48
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.49
4-2	3.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.47
4-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.80×	58.48
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.49
0-0	1.2%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.48
0-1	1.2%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.48
0-2	0.6%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.49
0-3	0.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.49
1-0	4.1%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.47
1-1	4.2%	1.7%	9.8%	0.17×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich leading at HT (DNB)	85.7%	85.7%	55.5%	1.54×	1.17
Union Berlin leading at HT (DNB)	14.3%	14.3%	44.5%	0.32×	7.00

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw (1X)	92.6%	91.8%	66.3%	1.38×	1.09
Bayern Munich or Union Berlin (12)	89.2%	86.7%	75.2%	1.15×	1.15
Union Berlin or draw (X2)	18.3%	19.3%	58.4%	0.33×	5.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw at HT	89.5%	88.4%	70.7%	1.25×	1.13
Bayern Munich or Union Berlin at HT	73.6%	74.4%	65.8%	1.13×	1.34
Union Berlin or draw at HT	36.9%	29.8%	63.4%	0.47×	3.36

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw (1UP)	92.6%	93.6%	73.5%	1.27×	1.07
Union Berlin or draw (1UP)	27.1%	31.6%	65.1%	0.49×	3.16

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich or draw in 2nd half	89.3%	88.0%	70.4%	1.25×	1.14
Bayern Munich or Union Berlin in 2nd half	79.9%	77.0%	66.6%	1.16×	1.30
Union Berlin or draw in 2nd half	30.8%	36.5%	62.9%	0.58×	2.74

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	58.8%	58.1%	46.3%	1.26×	1.72
A half drawn	41.2%	41.9%	53.7%	0.78×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (DNB)	91.7%	93.1%	55.3%	1.68×	1.07
Union Berlin (DNB)	8.3%	6.9%	44.7%	0.15×	14.43

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score first	75.9%	79.8%	50.7%	1.57×	1.25
Union Berlin to score first	22.9%	22.9%	43.6%	0.53×	4.37
No goal scored	1.2%	4.2%	5.9%	0.72×	23.75

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.8%	56.5%	59.3%	0.95×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.2%	43.5%	40.7%	1.07×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.6%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
Not both score & over 2.5	24.0%	27.7%	12.7%	2.19×	3.60
Not both score & under 2.5	14.2%	12.3%	28.2%	0.44×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	4.2%	4.7%	9.8%	0.48×	21.45

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.8%	79.9%	79.7%	1.00×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	23.2%	20.1%	20.3%	0.99×	4.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	61.1%	66.0%	65.6%	1.01×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	38.9%	34.0%	34.4%	0.99×	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	45.2%	53.2%	51.7%	1.03×	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	28.8%	26.6%	27.7%	0.96×	3.76
Both score 1st half only	15.9%	15.6%	14.1%	1.10×	6.43
Both score in both halves	10.1%	10.7%	6.8%	1.57×	9.34

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.0%	80.0%	79.2%	1.01×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.0%	20.0%	20.8%	0.96×	5.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	77.9%	80.5%	66.9%	1.20×	1.24
A half without a goal	22.1%	19.5%	33.1%	0.59×	5.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	48.7%	47.4%	39.9%	1.19×	2.11
2-3 goals	29.3%	26.5%	38.8%	0.68×	3.78
7+ goals	15.4%	20.2%	3.8%	5.31×	4.96
0-1 goals	6.6%	7.6%	17.9%	0.42×	13.20

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	32.0%	1.13×	2.78
Union Berlin to score exactly 0	36.0%	36.0%	25.3%	1.42×	2.78
Union Berlin to score exactly 2	18.8%	19.6%	22.0%	0.89×	5.11
Union Berlin to score 3+	8.4%	8.5%	21.0%	0.40×	11.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score 3+	65.8%	57.5%	27.4%	2.10×	1.74
Bayern Munich to score exactly 2	19.4%	18.9%	22.6%	0.84×	5.29
Bayern Munich to score exactly 1	11.4%	14.3%	29.1%	0.49×	6.99
Bayern Munich to score exactly 0	3.4%	6.2%	21.2%	0.29×	16.26

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich leading at HT	63.1%	70.2%	36.6%	1.92×	1.42
Draw at HT	26.4%	25.6%	34.2%	0.75×	3.90
Union Berlin leading at HT	10.5%	11.6%	29.3%	0.39×	8.64

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich -1: 1	64.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Bayern Munich -1: 2	18.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Bayern Munich -1: X	16.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:1)	64.9%	61.5%	24.7%	2.49×	1.63
Union Berlin (0:1)	18.3%	17.8%	58.4%	0.30×	5.63
Draw (0:1)	16.8%	17.8%	17.1%	1.04×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (0:2)	45.4%	51.1%	11.7%	4.37×	1.96
Union Berlin (0:2)	35.1%	38.4%	75.3%	0.51×	2.60
Draw (0:2)	19.5%	15.3%	13.1%	1.17×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (0:3)	54.6%	48.7%	88.3%	0.55×	2.05
Bayern Munich (0:3)	27.7%	23.2%	6.8%	3.42×	4.30
Draw (0:3)	17.7%	16.1%	5.1%	3.18×	6.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (0:4)	72.3%	77.6%	93.2%	0.83×	1.29
Bayern Munich (0:4)	14.8%	9.8%	1.7%	5.60×	10.26
Draw (0:4)	13.0%	9.6%	5.2%	1.84×	10.43

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (1:0)	92.6%	92.7%	66.3%	1.40×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	5.1%	6.9%	16.5%	0.42×	14.48
Union Berlin (1:0)	2.4%	3.2%	17.4%	0.18×	31.73

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich (2:0)	97.6%	96.9%	82.6%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.8%	2.3%	10.0%	0.23×	44.26
Union Berlin (2:0)	0.6%	2.3%	7.6%	0.30×	44.34

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.1%	50.3%	46.9%	1.07×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	28.2%	26.5%	26.3%	1.01×	3.77
Halves equal	18.8%	19.2%	26.9%	0.71×	5.22

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to concede	64.0%	63.4%	74.7%	0.85×	1.58
Bayern Munich clean sheet	36.0%	36.6%	25.3%	1.44×	2.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich clean sheet in 1st half	65.9%	68.5%	54.4%	1.26×	1.46
Bayern Munich to concede in 1st half	34.1%	31.5%	45.6%	0.69×	3.17

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich over 0.5 goals	96.6%	96.4%	78.8%	1.22×	1.04
Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals	85.2%	87.2%	49.8%	1.75×	1.15
Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals	65.8%	67.9%	27.4%	2.48×	1.47
Bayern Munich under 3.5 goals	56.2%	58.8%	88.6%	0.66×	1.70
Bayern Munich over 3.5 goals	43.8%	41.2%	11.4%	3.62×	2.43
Bayern Munich under 2.5 goals	34.2%	32.1%	72.6%	0.44×	3.11
Bayern Munich under 1.5 goals	14.8%	12.8%	50.2%	0.25×	7.84
Bayern Munich under 0.5 goals	3.4%	3.6%	21.2%	0.17×	27.46

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich over 0.5 in 1st half	76.4%	77.1%	51.8%	1.49×	1.30
Bayern Munich under 1.5 in 1st half	57.7%	58.1%	80.8%	0.72×	1.72
Bayern Munich over 1.5 in 1st half	42.3%	41.9%	19.2%	2.18×	2.39
Bayern Munich under 0.5 in 1st half	23.6%	22.9%	48.2%	0.48×	4.36

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.3%	56.7%	42.4%	1.34×	1.76
Union Berlin (home no bet)	40.7%	43.3%	57.6%	0.75×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich even goals	50.1%	50.6%	52.5%	0.96×	1.98
Bayern Munich odd goals	49.9%	49.4%	47.5%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	22.5%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.15
Any other HT score	18.4%	18.8%	6.7%	2.82×	5.33
HT 2-0	16.2%	18.7%	9.5%	1.97×	5.35
HT 0-0	15.5%	18.7%	23.3%	0.80×	5.35
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.1%	9.8%	0.73×	14.02
HT 2-1	6.8%	7.1%	4.3%	1.66×	14.05
HT 0-1	6.5%	7.1%	16.5%	0.43×	14.06
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.3%	3.5%	0.66×	43.47
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.3%	1.3%	1.81×	43.51
HT 0-2	1.3%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.51

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	59.4%	59.9%	28.1%	2.14×	1.67
Draw at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	18.3%	16.8%	10.6%	1.58×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	13.9%	0.43×	16.73
Union Berlin at HT / Bayern Munich at FT	4.1%	3.5%	3.3%	1.04×	28.80
Union Berlin at HT / Union Berlin at FT	3.8%	3.5%	20.3%	0.17×	28.82
Bayern Munich at HT / Draw at FT	2.9%	3.5%	5.1%	0.68×	28.85
Draw at HT / Union Berlin at FT	2.8%	3.5%	10.0%	0.35×	28.85
Union Berlin at HT / Draw at FT	2.6%	3.5%	6.0%	0.58×	28.86
Bayern Munich at HT / Union Berlin at FT	0.9%	3.5%	3.8%	0.91×	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to score last	75.9%	76.4%	49.8%	1.54×	1.31
Union Berlin to score last	22.9%	26.4%	44.5%	0.59×	3.79
No goal scored	1.2%	4.2%	5.9%	0.72×	23.75

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	98.8%	95.7%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Bayern Munich to lead by 1 at any time	89.6%	91.0%	59.6%	1.53×	1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	77.4%	78.2%	55.9%	1.40×	1.28
Bayern Munich to lead by 2 at any time	71.7%	74.2%	33.1%	2.24×	1.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	51.5%	50.7%	25.7%	1.97×	1.97
Bayern Munich to lead by 3 at any time	50.1%	50.6%	15.5%	3.26×	1.98
Union Berlin to lead by 1 at any time	27.1%	25.4%	52.9%	0.48×	3.93
Union Berlin to lead by 2 at any time	6.5%	6.6%	23.6%	0.28×	15.10
Union Berlin to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	10.3%	0.15×	62.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	78.0%	78.6%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-5 goals	70.8%	72.4%	83.2%	0.87×	1.38
3-6 goals	66.2%	68.9%	58.5%	1.18×	1.45
2-5 goals	65.5%	68.9%	71.2%	0.97×	1.45
1-4 goals	53.9%	53.2%	72.3%	0.74×	1.88
3-5 goals	53.6%	53.2%	51.3%	1.04×	1.88
2-4 goals	48.5%	48.7%	60.3%	0.81×	2.06
4-6 goals	48.7%	48.7%	39.9%	1.22×	2.06
3-4 goals	36.7%	39.1%	40.3%	0.97×	2.55
4-5 goals	36.2%	39.1%	32.6%	1.20×	2.56
1-3 goals	34.6%	35.4%	50.8%	0.70×	2.83
5-6 goals	29.5%	30.3%	18.4%	1.65×	3.31
2-3 goals	29.3%	30.3%	38.8%	0.78×	3.31
1-2 goals	17.2%	18.6%	32.1%	0.58×	5.37
7+ goals	15.4%	18.6%	3.8%	4.90×	5.37

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich never behind	71.7%	76.9%	47.1%	1.63×	1.30
Union Berlin never behind	9.2%	5.1%	40.4%	0.13×	19.74

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.8%	44.8%	1.14×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.2%	55.2%	0.89×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.2%	51.6%	52.6%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.8%	48.4%	47.4%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.3%	52.0%	52.9%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.7%	48.0%	47.1%	1.02×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	98.8%	95.5%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	82.1%	1.12×	1.08
Over 2.5 goals	81.6%	82.4%	62.2%	1.32×	1.21
Under 5.5 goals	72.1%	72.5%	88.9%	0.82×	1.38
Over 3.5 goals	64.2%	61.8%	43.5%	1.42×	1.62
Under 4.5 goals	55.1%	58.8%	78.0%	0.75×	1.70
Over 4.5 goals	44.9%	41.2%	22.0%	1.87×	2.43
Under 3.5 goals	35.8%	38.2%	56.5%	0.68×	2.62
Over 5.5 goals	27.9%	27.5%	11.1%	2.48×	3.64
Under 2.5 goals	18.4%	17.6%	37.8%	0.47×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	17.9%	0.43×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	1.2%	4.5%	5.9%	0.77×	22.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	92.5%	92.5%	77.7%	1.19×	1.08
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	82.4%	81.1%	95.9%	0.85×	1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	77.7%	75.9%	53.5%	1.42×	1.32
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	66.3%	67.4%	87.6%	0.77×	1.48
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	55.6%	55.4%	28.0%	1.98×	1.81
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	44.4%	44.6%	72.0%	0.62×	2.24
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	33.7%	32.6%	12.4%	2.62×	3.07
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	22.3%	24.1%	46.5%	0.52×	4.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	17.6%	18.9%	4.1%	4.63×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	7.5%	7.5%	22.3%	0.34×	13.26

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	84.5%	86.3%	76.7%	1.13×	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	71.4%	71.2%	84.8%	0.84×	1.41
Over 1.5 in 1st half	55.5%	62.6%	41.2%	1.52×	1.60
Under 1.5 in 1st half	44.5%	37.4%	58.8%	0.64×	2.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half	28.6%	28.8%	15.2%	1.89×	3.47
Under 0.5 in 1st half	15.5%	13.7%	23.3%	0.59×	7.31

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	92.2%	89.2%	84.3%	1.06×	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	72.2%	77.7%	55.3%	1.40×	1.29
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	53.2%	73.4%	0.73×	1.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	46.8%	26.6%	1.76×	2.14
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	27.8%	22.3%	44.7%	0.50×	4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	7.8%	10.8%	15.7%	0.69×	9.30

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to score in both halves	84.5%	84.4%	72.4%	1.17×	1.19
Bayern Munich to score in both halves	65.5%	70.3%	35.2%	2.00×	1.42
Bayern Munich not to score in both halves	34.5%	29.7%	64.8%	0.46×	3.37
Union Berlin to score in both halves	15.5%	15.6%	27.6%	0.57×	6.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.8%	60.2%	59.3%	1.01×	1.66
Only Bayern Munich scores	34.8%	33.4%	19.6%	1.70×	3.00
Only Union Berlin scores	2.2%	4.6%	15.5%	0.29×	21.90
Neither team scores	1.2%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.94

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	27.9%	25.0%	11.1%	2.25×	4.01
Exactly 4 goals	19.2%	17.4%	21.7%	0.80×	5.74
Exactly 3 goals	17.4%	17.4%	18.8%	0.93×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	17.0%	17.4%	11.1%	1.57×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	11.8%	12.1%	20.1%	0.60×	8.28
Exactly 1 goals	5.4%	7.6%	12.2%	0.63×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	1.2%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.70

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	72.2%	69.3%	55.3%	1.25×	1.44
1 goal in 2nd half	19.9%	17.2%	29.2%	0.59×	5.80
No goals in 2nd half	7.8%	10.2%	15.7%	0.65×	9.82

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to win both halves	98.9%	97.3%	90.5%	1.08×	1.03
Bayern Munich not to win both halves	56.3%	56.2%	84.2%	0.67×	1.78
Bayern Munich to win both halves	43.7%	43.8%	15.8%	2.76×	2.28
Union Berlin to win both halves	1.1%	2.7%	9.5%	0.29×	36.82

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich to win either half	88.6%	92.5%	57.8%	1.60×	1.08
Union Berlin to win neither half	80.0%	80.0%	50.6%	1.58×	1.25
Union Berlin to win either half	20.0%	20.0%	49.4%	0.40×	5.00
Bayern Munich to win neither half	11.4%	7.5%	42.2%	0.18×	13.34

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin not to win to nil	97.8%	96.2%	84.5%	1.14×	1.04
Bayern Munich not to win to nil	65.2%	69.6%	80.4%	0.87×	1.44
Bayern Munich to win to nil	34.8%	30.4%	19.6%	1.55×	3.29
Union Berlin to win to nil	2.2%	3.8%	15.5%	0.24×	26.35

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayern Munich by 3+	45.4%	47.1%	11.7%	4.02×	2.12
Bayern Munich by 2	19.5%	16.9%	13.1%	1.29×	5.91
Bayern Munich by 1	16.8%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.91
Draw	10.8%	11.8%	24.8%	0.47×	8.48
Union Berlin by 1	5.1%	7.3%	16.5%	0.44×	13.79
Union Berlin by 2	1.8%	2.7%	10.0%	0.27×	37.03
Union Berlin by 3+	0.6%	2.7%	7.6%	0.36×	37.06