Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 28 August 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 12
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.82 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.92 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayern Munich win
76.6%
Draw
12.9%
VfB Stuttgart win
10.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWDWWDW last 10
scored 35
from 31.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.5 xG
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWDLWLLWL last 10
scored 17
from 22.3 xG
conceded 17
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 3.27–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.22–1.53 | 3-1 7% | 85% | 75% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayern Munich 4.08 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayern Munich attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Grischa Prömel | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ramon Hendriks |
| 11' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 11' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 16' |
 Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 20' |
Bayern Munich |
Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 26' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 27' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 30' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Dzenan Pejcinovic | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 37' |
Bayern Munich |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 42' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Harry Kane |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 51' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 54' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 56' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.00 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 59' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 59' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Grischa Prömel | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 71' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 73' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 76' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismael Saibari |
| 77' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kim Min-Jae |
| 78' |
Bayern Munich |
Ismael Saibari | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 81' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ismael Saibari |
| 84' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Neuer |
| 91' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ismael Saibari |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Fabian Bredlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Angelo Stiller MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Deniz Undav AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.35 |
| Dzenan Pejcinovic AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tiago Tomás FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Ermedin Demirovic Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Leonidas Stergiou Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bilal El Khannouss Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.29 | 0.08 | 2.10 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.14 | 0.09 | 2.00 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.04 | 0.81 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.73 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.86 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.91 | 1.62 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.13 | 1.07 |
| Harry Kane FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.43 | 1.36 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Alphonso Davies DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.82 | 1.04 |
| Nathaniel Brown AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Ismael Saibari Sub | 28 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 1.06 | 0.64 |
| Josip Stanisic Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jonathan Tah Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennart Karl Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |