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Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 26 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Bayern Munich
4–0
4.32 – 0.30 xG
Werder Bremen
Shots
26 – 8
On target
12 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 5
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.34 – -0.30

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Bayern Munich win
68.0%
Draw
18.4%
Werder Bremen win
13.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.0 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWWWWDWWW last 10 scored 35 from 32.0 xG conceded 13 from 17.6 xG

Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWDLLLLW last 10 scored 12 from 9.3 xG conceded 18 from 21.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 2.55–1.10 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 3.19–0.74 3-0 11% 75% 50% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.22.43.64.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jonathan Tah 21' — goalHarry Kane 44' — goalHarry Kane 64' — goalKonrad Laimer 86' — goal
Bayern Munich 4.34 xGWerder Bremen 0.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Harry Kane 2' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 4' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 7' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 8' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Leon Goretzka 15' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Tah 21' — Goal (0.09 xG, From Corner)Harry Kane 25' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Romano Schmid 29' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Tom Bischof 37' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 38' — Blocked Shot (0.78 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 40' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 44' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Serge Gnabry 46' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yukinari Sugawara 47' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Romano Schmid 48' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Serge Gnabry 53' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jens Stage 54' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Yukinari Sugawara 57' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 60' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Sacha Boey 62' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Justin Njinmah 63' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Harry Kane 64' — Goal (0.48 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 64' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Yukinari Sugawara 66' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Yukinari Sugawara 71' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 73' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 76' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 76' — Saved Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Jackson 82' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Raphael Guerreiro 82' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Konrad Laimer 86' — Goal (0.39 xG, Open Play)Tom Bischof 86' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Wisdom Mike 91' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Wisdom Mike 92' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Bayern Munich attacking right Werder Bremen attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Michael Olise
4' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Michael Olise
7' Bayern Munich Luis Díaz 0.03 Open Play — Missed Shot Sacha Boey
8' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dayotchanculle Upamecano
15' Bayern Munich Leon Goretzka 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
21' Bayern Munich Jonathan Tah 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Goal Michael Olise
25' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Leon Goretzka
29' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
37' Bayern Munich Tom Bischof 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
38' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.78 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Leon Goretzka
40' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Tom Bischof
44' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
46' Bayern Munich Serge Gnabry 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Konrad Laimer
47' Werder Bremen Yukinari Sugawara 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Karim Coulibaly
48' Werder Bremen Romano Schmid 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot —
53' Bayern Munich Serge Gnabry 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Harry Kane
54' Werder Bremen Jens Stage 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yukinari Sugawara
57' Werder Bremen Yukinari Sugawara 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Romano Schmid
60' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tom Bischof
62' Bayern Munich Sacha Boey 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
63' Werder Bremen Justin Njinmah 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Romano Schmid
64' Bayern Munich Harry Kane 0.48 Open Play Right Foot Goal Luis Díaz
64' Bayern Munich Luis Díaz 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Konrad Laimer
66' Werder Bremen Yukinari Sugawara 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Jens Stage
71' Werder Bremen Yukinari Sugawara 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Romano Schmid
73' Bayern Munich Luis Díaz 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Konrad Laimer
76' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Sacha Boey
76' Bayern Munich Michael Olise 0.50 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Raphael Guerreiro
82' Bayern Munich Nicolas Jackson 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Díaz
82' Bayern Munich Raphael Guerreiro 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Konrad Laimer
86' Bayern Munich Konrad Laimer 0.39 Open Play Left Foot Goal Tom Bischof
86' Bayern Munich Tom Bischof 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nicolas Jackson
91' Bayern Munich Wisdom Mike 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Konrad Laimer
92' Bayern Munich Wisdom Mike 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Raphael Guerreiro

Players

Werder Bremen

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yukinari Sugawara DR 90 0 0 4 1 0.13 0.08 0.17
Romano Schmid AMR 90 0 0 2 3 0.06 0.09 0.11
Karim Coulibaly DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.09
Karl Hein GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Marco Friedl DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Senne Lynen DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Jens Stage DMC 83 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.04 0.15
Samuel Mbangula AML 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Felix Agu DL 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Justin Njinmah FW 76 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.13
Cameron Puertas AMC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Victor Boniface Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Grüll Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leonardo Bittencourt Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrice Covic Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Isaac Schmidt Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bayern Munich

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Konrad Laimer DL 90 1 0 1 5 0.39 0.35 0.76
Tom Bischof DMC 90 0 1 2 3 0.13 0.46 1.05
Sacha Boey DR 90 0 0 1 2 0.10 0.05 1.78
Jonathan Tah DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.10
Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.96
Manuel Neuer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Luis Díaz AML 87 0 1 3 2 0.15 0.74 1.18
Harry Kane FW 81 2 0 6 1 2.33 0.02 1.64
Michael Olise AMR 81 0 1 5 4 0.60 0.41 1.77
Serge Gnabry AMC 64 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.09
Leon Goretzka DMC 64 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.88 1.08
Raphael Guerreiro Sub 26 0 0 1 2 0.13 0.53 0.92
Joshua Kimmich Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.70
Nicolas Jackson Sub 9 0 0 1 1 0.26 0.06 0.45
Lennart Karl Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Wisdom Mike Sub 3 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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