Benevento v Catanzaro — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 27 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.6%
- 2-1 8.7%
- 1-2 7.9%
- 2-2 6.6%
- 2-0 5.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 62.1% | Under 2.5 | 37.9% |
| BTTS yes | 64.8% | BTTS no | 35.2% |
| Benevento 1+ | 81.4% | Benevento 2+ | 50.1% |
| Catanzaro 1+ | 78.2% | Catanzaro 2+ | 44.9% |
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Benevento.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Benevento have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Benevento have an estimated 40.5% win probability, against 33.7% for Catanzaro and 25.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.68 for Benevento and 1.52 for Catanzaro.
Why Benevento
Nothing in the data singles out Benevento.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.68 to 1.52. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Catanzaro can win
Nothing in the data singles out Catanzaro.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Benevento, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Catanzaro, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Benevento: 48% possession, 17.7 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Catanzaro: 57% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Benevento's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Benevento are the model's most likely outcome at 40.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 42/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.68–1.52 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.59–1.62 | 1-1 12% | 62% | 65% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.