Benevento v Empoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 24 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.7%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 1-0 8.9%
- 2-0 8.7%
- 0-0 7.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | Under 2.5 | 46.6% |
| BTTS yes | 56.2% | BTTS no | 43.8% |
| Benevento 1+ | 81.9% | Benevento 2+ | 50.9% |
| Empoli 1+ | 67.0% | Empoli 2+ | 30.4% |
Expected goals 1.71 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Benevento carry the stronger rating, 1492 Elo against 1384.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Benevento have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Benevento have an estimated 50.0% win probability, against 26.6% for the draw and 23.3% for Empoli. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.71 for Benevento and 1.11 for Empoli.
Why Benevento
Benevento carry the stronger rating, 1492 Elo against 1384.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.6%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Empoli can win
Nothing in the data singles out Empoli.
Key players
Empoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.29), Lorenzo Colombo (0.25), Jacopo Fazzini (0.19).
Availability
No lineup on record for Benevento, so availability is unknown. 1 of Empoli's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Benevento: 48% possession, 17.7 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Empoli: 40% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Benevento's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Benevento are the model's most likely outcome at 50.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 38/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.71–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.58–1.17 | 1-1 13% | 52% | 56% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.