Benevento v Hellas Verona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 11 September 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
ITA-Serie B
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.0%
- 2-1 8.8%
- 0-0 8.8%
- 1-0 8.6%
- 1-2 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | Under 2.5 | 51.0% |
| BTTS yes | 54.9% | BTTS no | 45.1% |
| Benevento 1+ | 75.9% | Benevento 2+ | 41.7% |
| Hellas Verona 1+ | 70.2% | Hellas Verona 2+ | 34.1% |
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.21. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Benevento.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 40/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Benevento have only 2 matches on record.
- Hellas Verona have only 2 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Benevento have an estimated 40.4% win probability, against 30.4% for Hellas Verona and 29.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Benevento and 1.21 for Hellas Verona.
Why Benevento
Nothing in the data singles out Benevento.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 29.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.43 to 1.21. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Hellas Verona can win
Nothing in the data singles out Hellas Verona.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Benevento, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Hellas Verona, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Benevento: 51% possession, 20.0 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Hellas Verona: 53% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 8.5 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·
Benevento are the model's most likely outcome at 40.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.0%. Confidence 40/100, data quality 40/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.43–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.42–1.22 | 1-1 14% | 49% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.