Benevento v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 December 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.9%
- 2-1 9.4%
- 2-0 7.2%
- 1-2 7.0%
- 1-0 6.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | Under 2.5 | 40.7% |
| BTTS yes | 61.7% | BTTS no | 38.3% |
| Benevento 1+ | 82.9% | Benevento 2+ | 52.6% |
| Pisa 1+ | 73.0% | Pisa 2+ | 37.6% |
Expected goals 1.76 – 1.31. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Benevento carry the stronger rating, 1492 Elo against 1309.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Benevento have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Benevento have an estimated 46.9% win probability, against 27.3% for Pisa and 25.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.76 for Benevento and 1.31 for Pisa.
Why Benevento
Benevento carry the stronger rating, 1492 Elo against 1309.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 25.8%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Pisa can win
Away from home Pisa average 0.82 xG a match.
Key players
Pisa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Stefano Moreo (0.28), Filip Stojilkovic (0.24), Henrik Meister (0.21).
Availability
No lineup on record for Benevento, so availability is unknown. 1 of Pisa's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Benevento: 48% possession, 17.7 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Pisa: 46% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Benevento are the model's most likely outcome at 46.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 38/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.76–1.31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.65–1.38 | 1-1 12% | 58% | 62% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.