Birmingham City v Watford — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 December 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Birmingham City

20:00 UTC

Watford

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,089h before kick-off

Birmingham City win

47.0%

model 45.5%

Draw

26.6%

model 28.9%

Watford win

26.5%

model 25.6%

472726

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.8%
1-0 10.1%
0-0 9.2%
2-1 9.2%
2-0 8.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.1%	Under 2.5	52.9%
BTTS yes	52.3%	BTTS no	47.7%
Birmingham City 1+	77.5%	Birmingham City 2+	44.0%
Watford 1+	65.6%	Watford 2+	28.9%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

45/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Over 7.5 corners

Corners O/U

80.7% fair odds 1.24

moderate signal · 8612 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

82.6% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1271 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Birmingham City carry the stronger rating, 1496 Elo against 1394.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Birmingham City have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.6% for the draw and 26.5% for Watford. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.49 for Birmingham City and 1.07 for Watford.

Why Birmingham City

Birmingham City carry the stronger rating, 1496 Elo against 1394.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Watford can win

Nothing in the data singles out Watford.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Birmingham City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Watford, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Birmingham City: 46% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Watford: 43% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Birmingham City are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Confidence 45/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	462926	1.49–1.07	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	433026	1.38–1.03	1-1 14%	43%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to win	43.4%	42.9%	43.4%	0.99×	2.33
Draw	30.1%	30.4%	27.6%	1.10×	3.29
Watford to win	26.4%	27.9%	29.1%	0.96×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City & not both score	25.3%	25.2%	23.3%	1.08×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	19.6%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Birmingham City & both teams score	18.2%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Watford & not both score	14.6%	13.3%	15.2%	0.87×	7.53
Watford & both teams score	11.8%	13.3%	13.9%	0.95×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.5%	13.3%	7.3%	1.82×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City & over 1.5	32.5%	30.8%	32.5%	0.95×	3.25
Birmingham City & under 3.5	32.2%	30.8%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	24.8%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	24.8%	21.6%	21.8%	0.99×	4.63
Birmingham City & over 2.5	24.0%	21.6%	26.4%	0.82×	4.63
Watford & under 3.5	20.7%	21.6%	22.3%	0.97×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.6%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Birmingham City & under 2.5	19.5%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Watford & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Watford & over 2.5	14.0%	12.8%	16.2%	0.79×	7.79
Watford & under 2.5	12.5%	12.8%	12.9%	0.99×	7.79
Birmingham City & under 1.5	10.9%	12.8%	11.0%	1.16×	7.79
Birmingham City & over 3.5	11.2%	12.8%	11.1%	1.15×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	10.5%	12.8%	7.3%	1.76×	7.79
Watford & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.3%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.3%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Watford & over 3.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (1UP)	58.2%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Watford (1UP)	43.1%	38.5%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (2UP)	43.4%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Watford (2UP)	26.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.99

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.1%	36.0%	—	—	2.77
Birmingham City to win 2nd half	35.6%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Watford to win 2nd half	25.3%	25.8%	—	—	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
Watford under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.0%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Watford over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.0%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Watford over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	13.0%	—	—	7.69

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.4%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Birmingham City over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.5%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Birmingham City under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.5%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Birmingham City over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.6%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (+2.5)	92.0%	92.1%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Watford (+1.5)	78.6%	78.5%	80.7%	0.97×	1.27
Birmingham City (+0.5)	73.6%	73.7%	70.9%	1.04×	1.36
Watford (+0.5)	56.6%	57.0%	56.6%	1.01×	1.75
Birmingham City (-0.5)	43.4%	43.0%	43.4%	0.99×	2.33
Watford (-0.5)	26.4%	26.3%	29.1%	0.91×	3.80
Birmingham City (-1.5)	21.4%	21.5%	19.3%	1.11×	4.65
Birmingham City (-2.5)	8.0%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede	74.8%	76.8%	77.6%	0.99×	1.30
Watford clean sheet	25.2%	23.2%	22.4%	1.04×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford clean sheet in 1st half	55.2%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Watford to concede in 1st half	44.8%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to concede in 2nd half	54.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Watford clean sheet in 2nd half	45.5%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 6.5 corners	83.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Watford under 5.5 corners	74.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Watford over 2.5 corners	68.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Watford under 4.5 corners	62.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Watford over 3.5 corners	52.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Watford under 3.5 corners	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Watford over 4.5 corners	37.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Watford under 2.5 corners	31.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Watford over 5.5 corners	25.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Watford over 6.5 corners	16.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 3.5 goals	97.9%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Watford under 2.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Watford under 1.5 goals	72.6%	71.9%	70.0%	1.03×	1.39
Watford over 0.5 goals	64.2%	63.2%	69.5%	0.91×	1.58
Watford under 0.5 goals	35.8%	36.8%	30.5%	1.21×	2.72
Watford over 1.5 goals	27.4%	28.1%	30.0%	0.94×	3.56
Watford over 2.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	9.4%	0.81×	13.05
Watford over 3.5 goals	2.1%	2.5%	2.2%	1.13×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford under 1.5 in 1st half	93.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Watford under 0.5 in 1st half	66.3%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Watford over 0.5 in 1st half	33.7%	30.4%	—	—	3.29
Watford over 1.5 in 1st half	6.4%	5.9%	—	—	16.81

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford scores equally in both	45.5%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Watford scores more in 2nd half	34.1%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
Watford scores more in 1st half	20.4%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (away no bet)	59.0%	57.4%	61.1%	0.94×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.0%	42.6%	38.9%	1.10×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford even goals	56.4%	56.9%	52.4%	1.09×	1.76
Watford odd goals	43.6%	43.1%	47.6%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.1%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.29

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.4%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.6%	39.7%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.5%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Birmingham City to score 2+ in a row	33.2%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Watford to score 2+ in a row	20.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Birmingham City to score 3+ in a row	11.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Watford to score 3+ in a row	5.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.15

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City corners (+3.5)	94.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Birmingham City corners (+2.5)	90.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Birmingham City corners (+1.5)	86.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Birmingham City corners (-1.5)	66.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Birmingham City corners (-2.5)	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Birmingham City corners (-3.5)	50.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Watford corners (+3.5)	49.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Watford corners (+2.5)	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Watford corners (+1.5)	33.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Watford corners (-1.5)	13.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Watford corners (-2.5)	9.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Watford corners (-3.5)	6.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	49.6%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
0-8 corners	26.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	23.8%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	80.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	73.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	57.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	57.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	50.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	49.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	42.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 12.5 corners	42.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 9.5 corners	34.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	26.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	19.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.3%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.72
0-0	10.5%	11.5%	7.3%	1.57×	8.72
1-0	10.9%	11.5%	11.0%	1.04×	8.72
2-0	8.6%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
0-1	7.7%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-2	6.6%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
0-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.29
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.32
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.32
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
3-0	3.9%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (2nd half DNB)	58.4%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Watford (2nd half DNB)	41.6%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City leading at HT (DNB)	61.5%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Watford leading at HT (DNB)	38.5%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City or draw (1X)	73.6%	72.1%	70.9%	1.02×	1.39
Birmingham City or Watford (12)	69.9%	69.6%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Watford or draw (X2)	56.6%	57.1%	56.6%	1.01×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City or draw at HT	79.5%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Watford or draw at HT	67.2%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Birmingham City or Watford at HT	53.3%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City or draw (1UP)	73.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Watford or draw (1UP)	56.6%	63.0%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City or draw in 2nd half	74.7%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Watford or draw in 2nd half	64.4%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Birmingham City or Watford in 2nd half	60.9%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.9%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	34.1%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (DNB)	62.2%	62.7%	59.9%	1.05×	1.60
Watford (DNB)	37.8%	37.3%	40.1%	0.93×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to score first	51.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Watford to score first	38.2%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	10.5%	9.4%	—	—	10.62

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.4%	51.3%	45.6%	1.12×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.6%	48.7%	54.4%	0.90×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.5%	41.6%	37.1%	1.12×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	35.3%	38.4%	39.9%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	14.3%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	8.6%	0.97×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.0%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.0%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.4%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.9%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.8%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	11.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	3.8%	4.9%	—	—	20.28

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.7%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.3%	16.6%	—	—	6.01

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.5%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	48.5%	47.3%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.6%	47.2%	50.5%	0.94×	2.12
0-1 goals	29.2%	26.6%	25.9%	1.03×	3.76
4-6 goals	21.1%	22.9%	22.4%	1.02×	4.37
7+ goals	1.2%	1.8%	1.4%	1.35×	54.39

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	39.6%	0.91×	2.78
Watford to score exactly 0	35.8%	35.9%	30.5%	1.18×	2.78
Watford to score exactly 2	18.9%	19.6%	20.6%	0.95×	5.11
Watford to score 3+	8.5%	8.6%	9.4%	0.91×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to score exactly 1	34.7%	32.6%	37.0%	0.88×	3.07
Birmingham City to score exactly 0	25.2%	26.5%	22.4%	1.18×	3.77
Birmingham City to score exactly 2	24.0%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.29
Birmingham City to score 3+	16.2%	18.8%	16.1%	1.16×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Birmingham City leading at HT	32.8%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Watford leading at HT	20.5%	20.7%	—	—	4.84

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City -1: 2	56.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Birmingham City -1: X	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Birmingham City -1: 1	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:1)	56.6%	55.8%	56.6%	0.99×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.1%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.13
Birmingham City (0:1)	21.4%	24.2%	19.3%	1.26×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:2)	78.6%	79.4%	80.7%	0.98×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.4%	11.0%	11.3%	0.97×	9.09
Birmingham City (0:2)	8.0%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	13.04

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:3)	92.0%	92.7%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.6%	5.8%	4.8%	1.22×	17.24
Birmingham City (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford (0:4)	97.6%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.90
Birmingham City (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (1:0)	73.6%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.0%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.85
Watford (1:0)	10.4%	12.7%	11.7%	1.08×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City (2:0)	89.6%	88.5%	88.3%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.4%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.69
Watford (2:0)	3.0%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.65

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.9%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Halves equal	29.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to concede	64.2%	63.7%	69.5%	0.92×	1.57
Birmingham City clean sheet	35.8%	36.3%	30.5%	1.19×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City clean sheet in 1st half	66.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Birmingham City to concede in 1st half	33.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City clean sheet in 2nd half	54.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Birmingham City to concede in 2nd half	46.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City over 2.5 corners	92.1%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Birmingham City over 3.5 corners	85.4%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Birmingham City over 4.5 corners	76.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Birmingham City over 5.5 corners	67.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Birmingham City over 6.5 corners	57.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Birmingham City under 6.5 corners	42.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Birmingham City under 5.5 corners	32.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Birmingham City under 4.5 corners	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Birmingham City under 3.5 corners	14.6%	13.8%	—	—	7.26
Birmingham City under 2.5 corners	7.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 3.5 goals	94.9%	92.3%	94.8%	0.97×	1.08
Birmingham City under 2.5 goals	83.8%	82.2%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Birmingham City over 0.5 goals	74.8%	74.3%	77.6%	0.96×	1.35
Birmingham City under 1.5 goals	59.9%	58.6%	59.4%	0.99×	1.71
Birmingham City over 1.5 goals	40.1%	41.4%	40.6%	1.02×	2.42
Birmingham City under 0.5 goals	25.2%	25.7%	22.4%	1.15×	3.89
Birmingham City over 2.5 goals	16.2%	17.8%	16.1%	1.10×	5.62
Birmingham City over 3.5 goals	5.1%	7.7%	5.2%	1.50×	12.91

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City under 1.5 in 1st half	88.0%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Birmingham City under 0.5 in 1st half	55.2%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Birmingham City over 0.5 in 1st half	44.8%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Birmingham City over 1.5 in 1st half	12.0%	9.7%	—	—	10.28

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City scores equally in both	38.3%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Birmingham City scores more in 2nd half	36.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Birmingham City scores more in 1st half	25.0%	21.3%	—	—	4.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.3%	51.4%	48.7%	1.05×	1.95
Watford (home no bet)	46.7%	48.6%	51.3%	0.95×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City even goals	53.2%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Birmingham City odd goals	46.8%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	36.9%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
HT 1-0	21.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	14.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	9.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
HT 2-0	6.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
Any other HT score	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.26

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City at HT / Birmingham City at FT	25.6%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Birmingham City at FT	15.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Watford at HT / Watford at FT	13.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Watford at FT	11.0%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Birmingham City at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Watford at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Watford at HT / Birmingham City at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.71
Birmingham City at HT / Watford at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City to score last	51.4%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Watford to score last	38.1%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
No goal scored	10.5%	8.8%	—	—	11.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.5%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Birmingham City to lead by 1 at any time	58.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Watford to lead by 1 at any time	43.1%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.4%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Birmingham City to lead by 2 at any time	26.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Watford to lead by 2 at any time	14.8%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Birmingham City to lead by 3 at any time	9.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.82
Watford to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.6%	—	—	60.87

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City most corners	74.4%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Watford most corners	18.9%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	6.7%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.8%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.8%	78.7%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	69.7%	68.8%	72.8%	0.95×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.2%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-5 goals	67.2%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.2%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.6%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
1-2 goals	46.2%	48.5%	44.4%	1.09×	2.06
3-6 goals	42.0%	43.6%	47.2%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	39.6%	39.2%	44.5%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.5%	35.2%	39.1%	0.90×	2.84
4-6 goals	21.1%	24.5%	22.4%	1.09×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.7%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.5%	8.9%	8.2%	1.09×	11.26
7+ goals	1.2%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Birmingham City never behind	46.4%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Watford never behind	31.3%	36.2%	—	—	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.5%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.5%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.4%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.3%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.5%	87.6%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	77.7%	77.3%	76.3%	1.01×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.8%	72.5%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	56.8%	58.6%	51.6%	1.14×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	43.2%	41.4%	48.4%	0.85×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.2%	27.5%	25.9%	1.06×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	22.3%	22.7%	23.7%	0.96×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	10.5%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	9.7%	7.7%	9.4%	0.82×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	3.6%	4.6%	4.0%	1.15×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.8%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.2%	97.2%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.9%	86.7%	89.0%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	71.8%	72.4%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.7%	55.8%	65.1%	0.86×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.3%	44.2%	34.9%	1.27×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	28.2%	27.6%	31.5%	0.88×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.1%	13.3%	11.0%	1.21×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.8%	2.8%	4.2%	0.67×	35.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.2%	2.8%	1.4%	2.01×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.9%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	73.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	36.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.55

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.3%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.9%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.1%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to score in both halves	84.5%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Birmingham City not to score in both halves	75.6%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Birmingham City to score in both halves	24.4%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Watford to score in both halves	15.5%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.6%	50.7%	54.4%	0.93×	1.97
Only Birmingham City scores	25.3%	26.0%	23.3%	1.12×	3.84
Only Watford scores	14.6%	11.0%	15.2%	0.73×	9.05
Neither team scores	10.5%	11.0%	7.3%	1.51×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.6%	24.9%	25.7%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	20.9%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.6%	17.5%	18.7%	0.93×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.6%	12.1%	14.4%	0.84×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	10.5%	12.1%	7.3%	1.66×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	6.1%	7.6%	5.5%	1.38×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.6%	4.5%	4.0%	1.12×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	36.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
3+ goals in 1st half	8.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.55

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.4%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	33.4%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	25.1%	29.1%	—	—	3.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win both halves	94.6%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Birmingham City not to win both halves	88.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Birmingham City to win both halves	11.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Watford to win both halves	5.4%	5.8%	—	—	17.13

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford to win neither half	59.5%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Birmingham City to win either half	56.4%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Birmingham City to win neither half	43.6%	40.9%	—	—	2.45
Watford to win either half	40.5%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Watford not to win to nil	85.4%	88.1%	84.8%	1.04×	1.14
Birmingham City not to win to nil	74.7%	75.4%	76.7%	0.98×	1.33
Birmingham City to win to nil	25.3%	24.6%	23.3%	1.06×	4.06
Watford to win to nil	14.6%	11.9%	15.2%	0.78×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.1%	27.6%	27.6%	1.00×	3.62
Birmingham City by 1	22.1%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.15
Watford by 1	16.0%	17.0%	17.4%	0.98×	5.87
Birmingham City by 2	13.4%	11.8%	11.3%	1.04×	8.51
Birmingham City by 3+	8.0%	7.2%	8.1%	0.89×	13.91
Watford by 2	7.4%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.91
Watford by 3+	3.0%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.81