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Blackburn Rovers v Sheffield United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Blackburn Rovers win
27.9%
model 28.4%
Draw
27.9%
model 29.8%
Sheffield United win
44.2%
model 41.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.2%
  2. 0-1 10.1%
  3. 0-0 9.9%
  4. 1-2 8.8%
  5. 0-2 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.545.1% Under 2.554.9%
BTTS yes51.4% BTTS no48.6%
Blackburn Rovers 1+66.7% Blackburn Rovers 2+30.1%
Sheffield United 1+74.9% Sheffield United 2+40.2%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
46/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Sheffield United (DNB)
Draw no bet · usually 40%
57.0% fair odds 1.76
strong signal · 3577 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Blackburn Rovers not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 77%
82.7% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 12178 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Sheffield United carry the stronger rating, 1479 Elo against 1424.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Sheffield United have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 27.9% for the draw and 27.9% for Blackburn Rovers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.10 for Blackburn Rovers and 1.38 for Sheffield United.

Why Blackburn Rovers

Nothing in the data singles out Blackburn Rovers.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Sheffield United can win

Sheffield United carry the stronger rating, 1479 Elo against 1424. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Sheffield United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ben Brereton Díaz (0.40), Oliver McBurnie (0.30), Cameron Archer (0.28).

Availability

No lineup on record for Blackburn Rovers, so availability is unknown. 1 of Sheffield United's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Blackburn Rovers: 48% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 19.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sheffield United: 42% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Sheffield United are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.2%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sheffield United are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 9.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLDLLLLLLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.8 xG conceded 30 from 21.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend 1.10–1.38 0% 0% 0% Away ✓
ai-blend-oos 1.17–1.21 0% 0% 0% Away ✓
dc-xg 1.09–1.26 1-1 15% 42% 49% Away ✓
dc-xg-oos 1.10–1.25 1-1 15% 42% 49% Away ✓
deep 1.09–1.26 1-1 15% 42% 49% Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win 38.5% 36.2% 29.0% 1.25× 2.76
Draw 31.0% 30.6% 27.6% 1.11× 3.27
Blackburn Rovers to win 30.5% 30.6% 43.5% 0.70× 3.27
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United & not both score 22.4% 21.7% 15.3% 1.42× 4.60
Draw & both teams score 19.9% 18.0% 20.4% 0.89× 5.55
Blackburn Rovers & not both score 17.4% 18.0% 23.4% 0.77× 5.55
Sheffield United & both teams score 16.1% 18.0% 13.8% 1.30× 5.55
Blackburn Rovers & both teams score 13.1% 13.3% 20.2% 0.66× 7.55
Draw & not both score 11.1% 13.2% 7.3% 1.81× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United & under 3.5 29.4% 25.9% 22.3% 1.16× 3.86
Sheffield United & over 1.5 28.1% 25.9% 21.4% 1.21× 3.86
Draw & under 2.5 25.7% 25.9% 21.6% 1.20× 3.86
Draw & under 3.5 25.7% 25.9% 21.6% 1.20× 3.86
Blackburn Rovers & under 3.5 23.8% 21.6% 32.5% 0.67× 4.63
Blackburn Rovers & over 1.5 21.6% 21.6% 32.5% 0.67× 4.63
Sheffield United & over 2.5 20.5% 21.6% 16.2% 1.34× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.9% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.57
Sheffield United & under 2.5 18.0% 18.0% 13.0% 1.38× 5.57
Blackburn Rovers & over 2.5 15.9% 18.0% 26.4% 0.68× 5.57
Blackburn Rovers & under 2.5 14.6% 12.9% 17.2% 0.75× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 11.1% 12.9% 7.3% 1.76× 7.77
Sheffield United & under 1.5 10.4% 12.9% 7.7% 1.66× 7.77
Blackburn Rovers & under 1.5 8.9% 8.0% 11.1% 0.72× 12.56
Sheffield United & over 3.5 9.2% 8.0% 6.8% 1.17× 12.56
Blackburn Rovers & over 3.5 6.7% 8.0% 11.1% 0.72× 12.56
Draw & over 2.5 5.3% 8.0% 6.0% 1.32× 12.56
Draw & over 3.5 5.3% 8.0% 6.0% 1.32× 12.56
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (1UP) 53.8% 52.9% — — 1.89
Blackburn Rovers (1UP) 46.7% 43.2% — — 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (2UP) 38.5% 37.2% — — 2.69
Blackburn Rovers (2UP) 30.5% 30.7% — — 3.26
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.6% 36.0% — — 2.78
Sheffield United to win 2nd half 34.2% 34.5% — — 2.90
Blackburn Rovers to win 2nd half 26.2% 26.4% — — 3.79
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (+2.5) 96.2% 96.3% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Sheffield United (+1.5) 87.4% 88.3% 80.7% 1.09× 1.13
Sheffield United (+0.5) 69.5% 68.7% 56.5% 1.22× 1.46
Blackburn Rovers (+0.5) 61.5% 63.0% 71.0% 0.89× 1.59
Sheffield United (-0.5) 38.5% 37.0% 29.0% 1.27× 2.70
Blackburn Rovers (-0.5) 30.5% 31.3% 43.5% 0.72× 3.20
Blackburn Rovers (-1.5) 12.6% 11.7% 19.3% 0.60× 8.57
Blackburn Rovers (-2.5) 3.8% 3.7% 8.1% 0.46× 26.72
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to concede 66.5% 72.4% 77.5% 0.93× 1.38
Sheffield United clean sheet 33.5% 27.6% 22.5% 1.23× 3.62
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United clean sheet in 1st half 62.5% 64.8% — — 1.54
Sheffield United to concede in 1st half 37.5% 35.2% — — 2.84
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United over 2.5 corners 83.6% 81.5% — — 1.23
Sheffield United over 3.5 corners 72.2% 71.5% — — 1.40
Sheffield United under 6.5 corners 63.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Sheffield United over 4.5 corners 59.9% 57.1% — — 1.75
Sheffield United under 5.5 corners 52.2% 53.1% — — 1.89
Sheffield United over 5.5 corners 47.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Sheffield United under 4.5 corners 40.1% 42.9% — — 2.33
Sheffield United over 6.5 corners 36.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Sheffield United under 3.5 corners 27.8% 28.5% — — 3.51
Sheffield United under 2.5 corners 16.4% 18.5% — — 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 3.5 goals 96.1% 97.4% 97.8% 1.00× 1.03
Sheffield United under 2.5 goals 86.7% 87.9% 90.6% 0.97× 1.14
Sheffield United over 0.5 goals 71.6% 71.8% 69.4% 1.03× 1.39
Sheffield United under 1.5 goals 64.2% 63.5% 69.9% 0.91× 1.58
Sheffield United over 1.5 goals 35.8% 36.5% 30.1% 1.21× 2.74
Sheffield United under 0.5 goals 28.5% 28.2% 30.6% 0.92× 3.55
Sheffield United over 2.5 goals 13.3% 12.1% 9.5% 1.28× 8.26
Sheffield United over 3.5 goals 3.9% 2.6% 2.2% 1.16× 38.72
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 1.5 in 1st half 90.9% 94.1% — — 1.06
Sheffield United under 0.5 in 1st half 60.5% 64.0% — — 1.56
Sheffield United over 0.5 in 1st half 39.5% 36.0% — — 2.78
Sheffield United over 1.5 in 1st half 9.1% 5.9% — — 17.00
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 50.4% 51.2% 38.8% 1.32× 1.96
Blackburn Rovers (away no bet) 49.6% 48.9% 61.2% 0.80× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United even goals 54.0% 52.9% 52.6% 1.01× 1.89
Sheffield United odd goals 46.0% 47.1% 47.4% 0.99× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.8% 87.9% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.2% 12.1% — — 8.24
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 56.1% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals 43.9% 40.0% — — 2.50
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 47.9% 45.9% — — 2.18
Sheffield United to score 2+ in a row 29.0% 25.1% — — 3.99
Blackburn Rovers to score 2+ in a row 23.2% 19.5% — — 5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.8% 12.2% — — 8.19
Sheffield United to score 3+ in a row 8.8% 5.7% — — 17.62
Blackburn Rovers to score 3+ in a row 6.1% 5.6% — — 17.84
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers corners (+3.5) 81.7% 79.7% — — 1.25
Blackburn Rovers corners (+2.5) 76.0% 74.8% — — 1.34
Sheffield United corners (+3.5) 69.3% 65.8% — — 1.52
Blackburn Rovers corners (+1.5) 69.3% 65.8% — — 1.52
Sheffield United corners (+2.5) 62.1% 61.9% — — 1.62
Sheffield United corners (+1.5) 54.3% 52.5% — — 1.91
Blackburn Rovers corners (-1.5) 45.7% 47.5% — — 2.10
Blackburn Rovers corners (-2.5) 37.9% 38.1% — — 2.62
Blackburn Rovers corners (-3.5) 30.7% 34.2% — — 2.92
Sheffield United corners (-1.5) 30.7% 34.2% — — 2.92
Sheffield United corners (-2.5) 24.0% 25.2% — — 3.97
Sheffield United corners (-3.5) 18.3% 20.3% — — 4.93
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 55.4% 46.6% — — 2.15
9-11 corners 22.6% 25.6% — — 3.91
0-8 corners 22.0% 25.6% — — 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 84.3% 80.8% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 78.0% 76.5% — — 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 70.8% 72.6% — — 1.38
Over 10.5 corners 63.2% 63.4% — — 1.58
Over 11.5 corners 55.4% 57.8% — — 1.73
Under 12.5 corners 52.3% 53.3% — — 1.88
Over 12.5 corners 47.7% 46.7% — — 2.14
Under 11.5 corners 44.6% 42.2% — — 2.37
Under 10.5 corners 36.8% 36.6% — — 2.73
Under 9.5 corners 29.2% 27.4% — — 3.65
Under 8.5 corners 22.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Under 7.5 corners 15.7% 19.2% — — 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.6% 11.4% 14.4% 0.79× 8.80
0-0 11.1% 11.4% 7.3% 1.56× 8.80
0-1 10.4% 11.4% 7.7% 1.47× 8.81
1-0 8.9% 7.4% 11.1% 0.67× 13.53
0-2 7.5% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.53
1-2 8.2% 7.4% 7.9% 0.94× 13.53
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 11.4% 0.65× 13.53
2-0 5.7% 7.4% 6.2% 1.19× 13.53
0-3 3.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 57.60
0-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.04× 57.61
1-3 3.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 57.60
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.6% 2.89× 57.61
2-2 4.5% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 57.59
2-3 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 57.60
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 57.61
3-0 2.1% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 57.60
3-1 2.6% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 57.60
3-2 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 57.60
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 57.61
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 57.61
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 57.61
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 57.61
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.25× 57.61
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 10.09× 57.61
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 20.18× 57.61
Any other score 1.5% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 57.61
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United leading at HT (DNB) 52.1% 56.0% — — 1.79
Blackburn Rovers leading at HT (DNB) 47.9% 44.0% — — 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw (X2) 69.5% 69.4% 56.5% 1.23× 1.44
Blackburn Rovers or Sheffield United (12) 69.0% 69.4% 72.4% 0.96× 1.44
Blackburn Rovers or draw (1X) 61.5% 63.8% 71.0% 0.90× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw at HT 75.0% 79.9% — — 1.25
Blackburn Rovers or draw at HT 72.8% 74.3% — — 1.35
Blackburn Rovers or Sheffield United at HT 52.2% 47.6% — — 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw (1UP) 69.5% 76.1% — — 1.31
Blackburn Rovers or draw (1UP) 61.5% 71.7% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw in 2nd half 73.8% 73.6% — — 1.36
Blackburn Rovers or draw in 2nd half 65.8% 65.5% — — 1.53
Blackburn Rovers or Sheffield United in 2nd half 60.4% 64.0% — — 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.8% 69.4% — — 1.44
Neither half drawn 33.2% 30.6% — — 3.26
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (DNB) 55.8% 58.3% 40.0% 1.45× 1.72
Blackburn Rovers (DNB) 44.2% 41.7% 60.0% 0.70× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score first 47.6% 45.6% — — 2.20
Blackburn Rovers to score first 41.4% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 11.1% 9.7% — — 10.33
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 50.9% 51.6% 45.8% 1.13× 1.94
Both teams to score 49.1% 48.4% 54.2% 0.89× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 43.6% 41.7% 37.3% 1.12× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 34.5% 34.4% 39.9% 0.86× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 14.6% 12.3% 14.4% 0.85× 8.15
Not both score & over 2.5 7.3% 8.4% 8.6% 0.98× 11.93
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.3% 85.4% 89.0% 0.96× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.7% 14.6% 11.0% 1.33× 6.86
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 74.9% 74.2% — — 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 25.1% 25.8% — — 3.87
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 63.5% 66.5% — — 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 21.5% 20.8% — — 4.81
Both score 1st half only 11.4% 10.7% — — 9.34
Both score in both halves 3.6% 5.0% — — 20.00
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 84.9% 82.5% — — 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 15.1% 17.5% — — 5.73
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 52.7% 53.4% — — 1.87
A goal in each half 47.3% 46.6% — — 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.5% 46.9% 50.4% 0.93× 2.13
0-1 goals 30.4% 30.9% 25.9% 1.19× 3.24
4-6 goals 20.1% 23.0% 22.4% 1.03× 4.34
7+ goals 1.0% 1.9% 1.4% 1.35× 53.96
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score exactly 1 35.8% 35.8% 39.4% 0.91× 2.80
Sheffield United to score exactly 0 28.5% 27.6% 30.6% 0.90× 3.62
Sheffield United to score exactly 2 22.5% 22.5% 20.7% 1.09× 4.44
Sheffield United to score 3+ 13.3% 13.0% 9.5% 1.38× 7.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.6% 36.9% 0.96× 2.81
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 0 33.5% 32.6% 22.5% 1.45× 3.07
Blackburn Rovers to score exactly 2 20.0% 23.3% 24.6% 0.95× 4.29
Blackburn Rovers to score 3+ 9.8% 10.5% 16.2% 0.65× 9.51
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.8% 52.4% — — 1.91
Sheffield United leading at HT 27.2% 25.7% — — 3.89
Blackburn Rovers leading at HT 25.0% 20.1% — — 4.97
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United -1: 1 61.5% 62.8% — — 1.59
Sheffield United -1: X 20.8% 23.6% — — 4.23
Sheffield United -1: 2 17.7% 17.3% — — 5.79
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (0:1) 69.5% 65.4% 56.5% 1.16× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 17.9% 17.7% 24.2% 0.73× 5.64
Blackburn Rovers (0:1) 12.6% 13.9% 19.3% 0.72× 7.17
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (0:2) 87.4% 86.9% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.8% 7.7% 11.3% 0.68× 12.96
Blackburn Rovers (0:2) 3.8% 3.8% 8.1% 0.47× 26.38
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (0:3) 96.2% 96.6% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.9% 2.4% 4.8% 0.49× 42.23
Blackburn Rovers (0:3) 0.9% 2.4% 3.4% 0.71× 42.31
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (0:4) 99.1% 98.1% 96.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 2.4% 0.51× 81.82
Blackburn Rovers (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.18× 81.87
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (1:0) 61.5% 65.2% 71.0% 0.92× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 20.8% 21.7% 17.3% 1.26× 4.61
Sheffield United (1:0) 17.7% 17.1% 11.9% 1.44× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers (2:0) 82.3% 84.5% 88.1% 0.96× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.6% 10.4% 8.7% 1.20× 9.59
Sheffield United (2:0) 6.1% 6.6% 3.3% 2.01× 15.23
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.9% 48.9% — — 2.04
Halves equal 29.6% 26.5% — — 3.77
1st half highest scoring 25.5% 26.5% — — 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to concede 71.6% 73.1% 69.4% 1.05× 1.37
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet 28.5% 26.9% 30.6% 0.88× 3.72
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet in 1st half 60.5% 64.0% — — 1.56
Blackburn Rovers to concede in 1st half 39.5% 36.0% — — 2.78
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers over 2.5 corners 88.7% 86.3% — — 1.16
Blackburn Rovers over 3.5 corners 79.9% 76.6% — — 1.31
Blackburn Rovers over 4.5 corners 69.6% 66.7% — — 1.50
Blackburn Rovers over 5.5 corners 58.7% 57.5% — — 1.74
Blackburn Rovers under 6.5 corners 51.9% 52.8% — — 1.90
Blackburn Rovers over 6.5 corners 48.1% 47.2% — — 2.12
Blackburn Rovers under 5.5 corners 41.3% 42.5% — — 2.35
Blackburn Rovers under 4.5 corners 30.4% 33.3% — — 3.00
Blackburn Rovers under 3.5 corners 20.1% 23.4% — — 4.27
Blackburn Rovers under 2.5 corners 11.3% 13.7% — — 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers under 3.5 goals 97.5% 96.3% 94.8% 1.02× 1.04
Blackburn Rovers under 2.5 goals 90.2% 92.1% 83.8% 1.10× 1.09
Blackburn Rovers under 1.5 goals 70.1% 74.2% 59.4% 1.25× 1.35
Blackburn Rovers over 0.5 goals 66.5% 67.9% 77.5% 0.88× 1.47
Blackburn Rovers under 0.5 goals 33.5% 32.1% 22.5% 1.43× 3.11
Blackburn Rovers over 1.5 goals 29.9% 25.8% 40.6% 0.63× 3.88
Blackburn Rovers over 2.5 goals 9.8% 7.9% 16.2% 0.49× 12.65
Blackburn Rovers over 3.5 goals 2.5% 3.7% 5.2% 0.72× 26.96
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers under 1.5 in 1st half 91.9% 95.4% — — 1.05
Blackburn Rovers under 0.5 in 1st half 62.5% 64.6% — — 1.55
Blackburn Rovers over 0.5 in 1st half 37.5% 35.4% — — 2.83
Blackburn Rovers over 1.5 in 1st half 8.1% 4.6% — — 21.55
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (home no bet) 55.4% 56.0% 51.3% 1.09× 1.78
Draw (home no bet) 44.6% 44.0% 48.7% 0.90× 2.28
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers even goals 55.6% 55.3% 50.5% 1.10× 1.81
Blackburn Rovers odd goals 44.4% 44.7% 49.5% 0.90× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.1% 38.8% — — 2.58
HT 0-1 18.7% 18.7% — — 5.36
HT 1-0 17.5% 18.7% — — 5.36
HT 1-1 9.2% 7.1% — — 13.99
HT 0-2 4.8% 2.3% — — 43.35
HT 2-0 4.2% 2.3% — — 43.40
Any other HT score 2.7% 2.3% — — 43.51
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.3% — — 43.54
HT 2-1 2.1% 2.3% — — 43.55
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% — — 43.67
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United at HT / Sheffield United at FT 20.8% 21.7% — — 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.6% 21.7% — — 4.61
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 17.2% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Sheffield United at FT 15.5% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 11.8% 12.7% — — 7.90
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% — — 16.72
Sheffield United at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.73
Blackburn Rovers at HT / Sheffield United at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.83
Sheffield United at HT / Blackburn Rovers at FT 1.6% 3.5% — — 28.86
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score last 47.6% 46.7% — — 2.14
Blackburn Rovers to score last 41.3% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 11.1% 9.1% — — 11.02
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.9% 90.9% — — 1.10
Sheffield United to lead by 1 at any time 53.8% 50.8% — — 1.97
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 1 at any time 46.7% 43.9% — — 2.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 39.9% 34.9% — — 2.86
Sheffield United to lead by 2 at any time 22.8% 19.6% — — 5.10
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 2 at any time 17.2% 14.9% — — 6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.4% 10.5% — — 9.56
Sheffield United to lead by 3 at any time 7.5% 6.6% — — 15.10
Blackburn Rovers to lead by 3 at any time 4.9% 1.7% — — 59.58
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers most corners 53.8% 52.0% — — 1.92
Sheffield United most corners 38.2% 39.4% — — 2.54
Corners level 8.0% 8.5% — — 11.80
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.7% 87.4% 88.8% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.0% 78.5% 83.4% 0.94× 1.27
2-6 goals 68.6% 68.8% 72.8% 0.95× 1.45
1-3 goals 67.8% 68.8% 69.1% 1.00× 1.45
2-5 goals 66.3% 68.8% 70.2% 0.98× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.6% 63.1% 64.8% 0.97× 1.58
2-3 goals 48.5% 48.4% 50.4% 0.96× 2.06
1-2 goals 47.2% 48.4% 44.4% 1.09× 2.06
3-6 goals 40.7% 43.6% 47.1% 0.93× 2.29
3-5 goals 38.5% 39.3% 44.5% 0.88× 2.55
3-4 goals 32.8% 35.3% 39.1% 0.90× 2.83
4-6 goals 20.1% 24.8% 22.4% 1.11× 4.03
4-5 goals 17.8% 18.9% 19.8% 0.95× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.9% 9.0% 8.1% 1.11× 11.12
7+ goals 1.0% 2.6% 1.4% 1.87× 38.93
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United never behind 42.2% 48.2% — — 2.07
Blackburn Rovers never behind 35.1% 44.5% — — 2.25
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.5% 50.9% 49.4% 1.03× 1.96
Even number of goals 53.5% 49.1% 50.6% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.7% 57.5% — — 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.3% 42.5% — — 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.2% 52.1% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.8% 47.9% — — 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.7% 95.4% 96.0% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 91.0% 92.2% 90.6% 1.02× 1.09
Over 0.5 goals 88.9% 87.4% 92.7% 0.94× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 78.9% 77.2% 76.3% 1.01× 1.30
Over 1.5 goals 69.6% 66.0% 74.1% 0.89× 1.52
Under 2.5 goals 58.3% 58.5% 51.6% 1.13× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 41.7% 41.5% 48.4% 0.86× 2.41
Under 1.5 goals 30.4% 34.0% 25.9% 1.31× 2.94
Over 3.5 goals 21.1% 22.8% 23.7% 0.96× 4.38
Under 0.5 goals 11.1% 12.6% 7.3% 1.72× 7.96
Over 4.5 goals 9.0% 7.8% 9.4% 0.83× 12.80
Over 5.5 goals 3.3% 4.6% 4.0% 1.16× 21.75
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.9% 97.2% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.5% 97.1% 95.8% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 89.8% 86.6% 89.1% 0.97× 1.16
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 73.4% 72.2% 68.5% 1.05× 1.39
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 57.9% 55.1% 65.1% 0.85× 1.81
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 42.1% 44.9% 34.9% 1.28× 2.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 26.6% 27.8% 31.5% 0.88× 3.60
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 10.2% 13.4% 10.9% 1.23× 7.46
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.5% 2.9% 4.2% 0.68× 35.04
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.1% 2.8% 1.4% 2.02× 35.10
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.5% 92.7% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 74.3% 71.3% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.9% 63.5% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.1% 36.5% — — 2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half 25.7% 28.7% — — 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.5% 7.3% — — 13.72
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 83.9% 82.8% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.3% 77.8% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 59.4% 54.8% — — 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 40.6% 45.2% — — 2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.7% 22.2% — — 4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 16.1% 17.2% — — 5.81
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers not to score in both halves 82.6% 84.4% — — 1.19
Sheffield United not to score in both halves 79.1% 78.3% — — 1.28
Sheffield United to score in both halves 20.9% 21.7% — — 4.61
Blackburn Rovers to score in both halves 17.4% 15.6% — — 6.40
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 49.1% 50.4% 54.2% 0.93× 1.98
Only Sheffield United scores 22.4% 22.0% 15.3% 1.44× 4.54
Only Blackburn Rovers scores 17.4% 16.0% 23.4% 0.69× 6.25
Neither team scores 11.1% 11.1% 7.3% 1.52× 9.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.9% 24.7% 25.8% 0.96× 4.05
Exactly 3 goals 20.6% 22.4% 24.7% 0.91× 4.46
Exactly 1 goals 19.3% 17.6% 18.7% 0.94× 5.70
Exactly 4 goals 12.1% 12.0% 14.4% 0.83× 8.30
Exactly 0 goals 11.1% 12.0% 7.3% 1.65× 8.30
Exactly 5 goals 5.7% 7.8% 5.5% 1.42× 12.84
6 or more goals 3.3% 4.5% 4.0% 1.14× 22.22
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 40.6% 44.3% — — 2.26
1 goal in 2nd half 33.7% 33.4% — — 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 25.7% 29.7% — — 3.37
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers not to win both halves 93.2% 94.0% — — 1.06
Sheffield United not to win both halves 90.5% 93.9% — — 1.07
Sheffield United to win both halves 9.5% 6.1% — — 16.44
Blackburn Rovers to win both halves 6.8% 6.0% — — 16.64
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers to win neither half 55.5% 59.4% — — 1.68
Sheffield United to win either half 51.8% 54.8% — — 1.82
Sheffield United to win neither half 48.2% 45.2% — — 2.21
Blackburn Rovers to win either half 44.5% 40.6% — — 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Blackburn Rovers not to win to nil 82.6% 83.1% 76.6% 1.08× 1.20
Sheffield United not to win to nil 77.6% 78.3% 84.7% 0.92× 1.28
Sheffield United to win to nil 22.4% 21.7% 15.3% 1.42× 4.61
Blackburn Rovers to win to nil 17.4% 16.9% 23.4% 0.72× 5.93
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 31.0% 27.6% 27.6% 1.00× 3.63
Sheffield United by 1 20.8% 24.1% 17.3% 1.40× 4.14
Blackburn Rovers by 1 17.9% 16.9% 24.2% 0.70× 5.92
Sheffield United by 2 11.6% 11.7% 8.7% 1.35× 8.52
Blackburn Rovers by 2 8.8% 7.3% 11.3% 0.64× 13.72
Sheffield United by 3+ 6.1% 7.3% 3.3% 2.23× 13.73
Blackburn Rovers by 3+ 3.8% 2.8% 8.1% 0.35× 35.47
Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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