Bochum v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 12
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
17 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.63 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-0.87 – +0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bochum win
24.3%
Draw
27.9%
Augsburg win
47.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 12.5 xG
conceded 20
from 18.7 xG
Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWDLDLD last 10
scored 23
from 22.8 xG
conceded 19
from 22.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.98–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bochum 1.87 xGAugsburg 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bochum attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Felix Passlack |
| 7' |
 Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 12' |
Bochum |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Passlack |
| 15' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 19' |
Bochum |
Felix Passlack | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 24' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 32' |
Bochum |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ivan Ordets |
| 40' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 44' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 45' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bochum |
Tom Krauß | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giorgos Masouras |
| 49' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Fredrik Jensen | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frank Onyeka |
| 57' |
Bochum |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Ivan Ordets |
| 58' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ivan Ordets |
| 58' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 59' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.18 | From Corner | — | Goal | Felix Passlack |
| 63' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ibrahima Sissoko |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahima Sissoko |
| 74' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 76' |
Augsburg |
Arne Maier | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elvis Rexhbecaj |
| 77' |
Augsburg |
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Keven Schlotterbeck |
| 83' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ibrahima Sissoko |
| 85' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ibrahima Sissoko |
| 88' |
Bochum |
Mats Pannewig | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Gerrit Holtmann |
| 89' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Phillip Tietz |
| 92' |
Bochum |
Maximilian Wittek | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gerrit Holtmann |
| 92' |
Bochum |
Tim Oermann | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gerrit Holtmann |
| 94' |
Bochum |
Mats Pannewig | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Bochum |
Bernardo | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 95' |
Bochum |
Mats Pannewig | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Philipp Hofmann |
| 96' |
Augsburg |
Frank Onyeka | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Onyeka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Samuel Essende FW | 62 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Fredrik Jensen AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.42 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Arne Maier Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mert Kömür Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Henri Koudossou Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
Bochum
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Hofmann FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| Bernardo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Tim Oermann DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Maximilian Wittek DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Timo Horn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ivan Ordets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| Matús Bero MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| Giorgos Masouras FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.02 | 0.69 |
| Felix Passlack DMR | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Gerrit Holtmann Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Moritz Broschinski Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mats Pannewig Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |