Bochum v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 18
On target
7 – 7
Shots in box
14 – 14
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-0.88 – -0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bochum win
19.2%
Draw
26.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
54.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 12.5 xG
conceded 20
from 18.7 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–1.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bochum 1.88 xGEintracht Frankfurt 3.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bochum attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Bochum |
Jakov Medic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 5' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 8' |
Bochum |
Ivan Ordets | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 10' |
Bochum |
Felix Passlack | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Bochum |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ivan Ordets |
| 11' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Götze |
| 16' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Bochum |
Maximilian Wittek | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 23' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mario Götze |
| 26' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 26' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 28' |
Bochum |
Felix Passlack | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahima Sissoko |
| 28' |
Bochum |
Ivan Ordets | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 31' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hugo Ekitike |
| 32' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 40' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 60' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Felix Passlack |
| 64' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jakov Medic |
| 65' |
Bochum |
Ivan Ordets | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Matús Bero |
| 65' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 66' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Götze |
| 70' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 70' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 72' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tim Oermann |
| 78' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 81' |
Bochum |
Myron Boadu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Oermann |
| 81' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Tuta | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 90' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahima Sissoko |
| 91' |
Bochum |
Dani de Wit | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Moritz Broschinski |
| 92' |
Bochum |
Moritz Broschinski | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Myron Boadu |
| 95' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ansgar Knauff |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Kristensen DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1.77 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Tuta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kauã Santos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.81 |
| Oscar Højlund DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ellyes Skhiri DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 81 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.56 | 1.27 | 1.99 |
| Mario Götze AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1.86 |
| Jean Négoce AML | 65 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.05 | 0.87 |
| Hugo Larsson AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 43 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.92 | 0.76 | 1.65 |
| Farès Chaïbi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Michy Batshuayi Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Nnamdi Collins Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aurèle Amenda Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bochum
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Hofmann FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Maximilian Wittek DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| Jakov Medic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Timo Horn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tim Oermann DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Matús Bero MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.12 | 0.69 |
| Ivan Ordets DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Felix Passlack MR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Giorgos Masouras FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dani de Wit Sub | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Tom Krauß ML | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Myron Boadu Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| Gerrit Holtmann Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Moritz Broschinski Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 0.87 |
| Cristian Gamboa Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |