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Bochum v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 1 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Bochum
0–1
0.84 – 3.33 xG
Freiburg
Shots
22 – 13
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.77
Goals − xG
-0.84 – -2.34
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.92.83.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Kiliann Sildillia 33' — goal
Bochum 0.84 xGFreiburg 3.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Christian Günter 11' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Vincenzo Grifo 12' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Gerrit Holtmann 20' — Shot On Post (0.03 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Wittek 20' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Merlin Röhl 22' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Matthias Ginter 26' — Missed Shot (0.70 xG, Open Play)Gerrit Holtmann 27' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Moritz Broschinski 28' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gerrit Holtmann 30' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kiliann Sildillia 33' — Goal (0.50 xG, From Corner)Philipp Hofmann 35' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Philipp Hofmann 37' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Matthias Ginter 44' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Maximilian Wittek 45' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Merlin Röhl 46' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Gerrit Holtmann 47' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Maximilian Wittek 50' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Gerrit Holtmann 57' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Eren Sami Dinkci 58' — Saved Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Eggestein 59' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Eggestein 59' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Ritsu Doan 59' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Gerrit Holtmann 70' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Ibrahima Sissoko 70' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Philipp Hofmann 70' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Philipp Hofmann 71' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Matús Bero 73' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Myron Boadu 78' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Koji Miyoshi 85' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Lucas Höler 85' — Shot On Post (0.33 xG, Open Play)Gerrit Holtmann 87' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Koji Miyoshi 87' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Mats Pannewig 88' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Matús Bero 88' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Lucas Höler 89' — Saved Shot (0.63 xG, Open Play)
Bochum attacking right Freiburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
11' Freiburg Christian Günter 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Vincenzo Grifo
12' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot —
20' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Ivan Ordets
20' Bochum Maximilian Wittek 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Moritz Broschinski
22' Freiburg Merlin Röhl 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
26' Freiburg Matthias Ginter 0.70 Open Play — Missed Shot Kiliann Sildillia
27' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Philipp Hofmann
28' Bochum Moritz Broschinski 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Matús Bero
30' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Philipp Hofmann
33' Freiburg Kiliann Sildillia 0.50 From Corner — Goal Christian Günter
35' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tim Oermann
37' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.02 Open Play — Saved Shot Maximilian Wittek
44' Freiburg Matthias Ginter 0.07 From Corner — Missed Shot Vincenzo Grifo
45' Bochum Maximilian Wittek 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
46' Freiburg Merlin Röhl 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lucas Höler
47' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
50' Bochum Maximilian Wittek 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
57' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Dani de Wit
58' Freiburg Eren Sami Dinkci 0.41 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
59' Freiburg Maximilian Eggestein 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kiliann Sildillia
59' Freiburg Maximilian Eggestein 0.09 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
59' Freiburg Ritsu Doan 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
70' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
70' Bochum Ibrahima Sissoko 0.12 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
70' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.01 From Corner — Saved Shot Tom Krauß
71' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
73' Bochum Matús Bero 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Koji Miyoshi
78' Bochum Myron Boadu 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tim Oermann
85' Bochum Koji Miyoshi 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gerrit Holtmann
85' Freiburg Lucas Höler 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post —
87' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Matús Bero
87' Bochum Koji Miyoshi 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
88' Bochum Mats Pannewig 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Myron Boadu
88' Bochum Matús Bero 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
89' Freiburg Lucas Höler 0.63 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Merlin Röhl

Players

Freiburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lucas Höler FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.96 0.05 1.51
Matthias Ginter DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.77 0.00 1.33
Kiliann Sildillia DR 90 1 0 1 2 0.50 0.74 0.83
Merlin Röhl AMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.41 0.63 1.04
Eren Sami Dinkci AMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.41 0.00 1.09
Christian Günter DL 90 0 1 1 1 0.04 0.50 0.04
Nicolas Höfler DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Noah Atubolu GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Philipp Lienhart DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maximilian Eggestein DMC 78 0 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.05
Vincenzo Grifo AML 59 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.11 0.04
Ritsu Doan Sub 31 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Patrick Osterhage Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.63
Michael Gregoritsch Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Johan Manzambi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bochum

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Gerrit Holtmann AML 90 0 0 7 1 0.20 0.08 0.41
Matús Bero DMC 90 0 0 2 2 0.12 0.07 0.33
Ibrahima Sissoko DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.16
Philipp Hofmann FW 90 0 0 4 2 0.08 0.09 0.23
Bernardo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Patrick Drewes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ivan Ordets DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.19
Tim Oermann DR 81 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.16
Maximilian Wittek DL 65 0 0 3 1 0.05 0.02 0.05
Moritz Broschinski AMR 65 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.02 0.06
Dani de Wit AMC 64 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Tom Krauß Sub 26 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.18
Koji Miyoshi Sub 25 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.07 0.26
Myron Boadu Sub 25 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.04 0.11
Mats Pannewig Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Jakov Medic Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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