Bochum v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 22
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
5 – 17
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.23
Goals − xG
+0.27 – +1.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bochum win
21.2%
Draw
25.9%
Mainz 05 win
52.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 12.5 xG
conceded 20
from 18.7 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLWLWL last 10
scored 21
from 24.9 xG
conceded 17
from 18.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.97–1.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bochum 0.73 xGMainz 05 2.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bochum attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 1' |
 Bochum |
Myron Boadu | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 8' |
Mainz 05 |
Philipp Mwene | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 9' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 24' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matús Bero |
| 28' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danny da Costa |
| 35' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Mainz 05 |
Andreas Hanche-Olsen | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 41' |
Mainz 05 |
Stefan Bell | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andreas Hanche-Olsen |
| 42' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 46' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Myron Boadu |
| 46' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 48' |
Mainz 05 |
Danny da Costa | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 52' |
Mainz 05 |
Philipp Mwene | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 58' |
Bochum |
Ibrahima Sissoko | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Myron Boadu |
| 65' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 68' |
Bochum |
Ivan Ordets | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 70' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hong Hyun-Seok |
| 72' |
Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Paul Nebel |
| 73' |
Bochum |
Anthony Losilla | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dani de Wit |
| 78' |
Mainz 05 |
Silvan Widmer | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hong Hyun-Seok |
| 79' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 83' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Dani de Wit |
| 83' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 92' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nelson Weiper |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nebel AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.63 | 0.24 | 0.88 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Stefan Bell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Anthony Caci DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.89 |
| Lasse Rieß GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 63 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jae-Sung Lee AMC | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Silvan Widmer Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Hong Hyun-Seok Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.87 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Bochum
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myron Boadu FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.52 |
| Giorgos Masouras FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ivan Ordets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernardo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Maximilian Wittek ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| Timo Horn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tim Oermann DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Felix Passlack MR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matús Bero MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Tom Krauß DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Gerrit Holtmann Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Dani de Wit Sub | 42 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Mats Pannewig Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Anthony Losilla Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Cristian Gamboa Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |