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Bochum v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 15 January 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

1–0
1.82 – 1.15 xG
Shots
13 – 12
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.68
Goals − xG
-0.82 – -1.15
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.52.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Philipp Hofmann 65' — goal
Bochum 1.82 xGSt. Pauli 1.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Maximilian Wittek 1' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 9' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Gerrit Holtmann 14' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Oladapo Afolayan 14' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jackson Irvine 15' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Morgan Guilavogui 29' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gerrit Holtmann 30' — Missed Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)Maximilian Wittek 32' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Erhan Masovic 36' — Missed Shot (0.20 xG, From Corner)Danel Sinani 42' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Matús Bero 44' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Philipp Hofmann 48' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Philipp Hofmann 51' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jackson Irvine 52' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Danel Sinani 56' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Philipp Hofmann 59' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Manolis Saliakas 63' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Philipp Hofmann 65' — Goal (0.42 xG, Open Play)Gerrit Holtmann 74' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Morgan Guilavogui 74' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Eric Smith 80' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Moritz Broschinski 83' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Noah Weißhaupt 83' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Eric Smith 86' — Missed Shot (0.47 xG, From Corner)Moritz Broschinski 90' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)
Bochum attacking right St. Pauli attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Bochum Maximilian Wittek 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Philipp Hofmann
9' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Manolis Saliakas
14' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
14' St. Pauli Oladapo Afolayan 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Philipp Treu
15' St. Pauli Jackson Irvine 0.05 From Corner Saved Shot Danel Sinani
29' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot Oladapo Afolayan
30' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.34 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Matús Bero
32' Bochum Maximilian Wittek 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
36' Bochum Erhan Masovic 0.20 From Corner Missed Shot Philipp Hofmann
42' St. Pauli Danel Sinani 0.07 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
44' Bochum Matús Bero 0.07 Open Play Saved Shot Gerrit Holtmann
48' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Matús Bero
51' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.06 Open Play Missed Shot Bernardo
52' St. Pauli Jackson Irvine 0.30 Open Play Missed Shot Oladapo Afolayan
56' St. Pauli Danel Sinani 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
59' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gerrit Holtmann
63' St. Pauli Manolis Saliakas 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Morgan Guilavogui
65' Bochum Philipp Hofmann 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Goal Moritz Broschinski
74' Bochum Gerrit Holtmann 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Maximilian Wittek
74' St. Pauli Morgan Guilavogui 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
80' St. Pauli Eric Smith 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
83' Bochum Moritz Broschinski 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matús Bero
83' St. Pauli Noah Weißhaupt 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot David Nemeth
86' St. Pauli Eric Smith 0.47 From Corner Missed Shot Noah Weißhaupt
90' Bochum Moritz Broschinski 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Felix Passlack

Players

Bochum

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Philipp Hofmann FW 90 1 0 4 2 0.70 0.21 0.71
Erhan Masovic DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.20 0.00 0.64
Matús Bero MC 90 0 0 1 3 0.07 0.77 0.84
Maximilian Wittek DML 90 0 0 2 1 0.02 0.05 0.49
Bernardo DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.58
Patrick Drewes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ivan Ordets DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Felix Passlack DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.81
Ibrahima Sissoko MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Gerrit Holtmann FWL 81 0 0 3 2 0.41 0.17 0.56
Koji Miyoshi FWR 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Moritz Broschinski Sub 24 0 1 2 1 0.43 0.42 0.85
Dani de Wit Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Jakov Medic Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

St. Pauli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Eric Smith DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.48 0.00 0.04
Jackson Irvine MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.34 0.00 0.32
Morgan Guilavogui FWR 90 0 0 3 1 0.15 0.03 0.08
Hauke Wahl DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nikola Vasilj GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Philipp Treu DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.36
Manolis Saliakas DMR 88 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.03 0.05
David Nemeth DC 88 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.07
Oladapo Afolayan FWL 82 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.32 0.36
Carlo Boukhalfa MC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Danel Sinani FW 72 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.05 0.03
Noah Weißhaupt Sub 18 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.47 0.03
James Sands Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Scott Banks Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Abdoulie Ceesay Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adam Dzwigala Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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