Bochum v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 5
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 4
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.37 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.98 – +0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bochum win
27.9%
Draw
28.5%
Union Berlin win
43.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 12.5 xG
conceded 20
from 18.7 xG
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bochum 1.98 xGUnion Berlin 0.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bochum attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Bochum |
Maximilian Wittek | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 9' |
Bochum |
Tom Krauß | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
 Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 21' |
Bochum |
Maximilian Wittek | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Bochum |
Jakov Medic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 49' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Benedict Hollerbach |
| 55' |
Bochum |
Tom Krauß | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 56' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 67' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.61 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 76' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 77' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Bochum |
Dani de Wit | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matús Bero |
| 96' |
Bochum |
Dani de Wit | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Myron Boadu |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Tom Rothe DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Benedict Hollerbach FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Kevin Vogt Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| László Bénes Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Preu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bochum
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matús Bero MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.39 | 0.01 | 0.51 |
| Maximilian Wittek ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jakov Medic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Bernardo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timo Horn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Myron Boadu FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| Tim Oermann DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Moritz Broschinski FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Hofmann AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Cristian Gamboa MR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgos Masouras Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dani de Wit Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Gerrit Holtmann Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Passlack Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |