Bochum v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 14
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 11
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.82 – +1.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bochum win
25.8%
Draw
28.5%
VfB Stuttgart win
45.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bochum are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLDDLW last 10
scored 10
from 12.5 xG
conceded 20
from 18.7 xG
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDLWLLWLL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 19
from 24.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bochum 0.82 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bochum attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Nübel |
| 1' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 7' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Atakan Karazor |
| 10' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Atakan Karazor |
| 21' |
 Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Passlack |
| 22' |
Bochum |
Felix Passlack | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Fabian Rieder | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 32' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Felix Passlack |
| 35' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ramon Hendriks |
| 36' |
Bochum |
Ivan Ordets | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matús Bero |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nick Woltemade | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 46' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Leonidas Stergiou | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ramon Hendriks |
| 48' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Fabian Rieder | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 51' |
Bochum |
Tim Oermann | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 52' |
Bochum |
Giorgos Masouras | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Fabian Rieder | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Bochum |
Tom Krauß | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matús Bero |
| 63' |
Bochum |
Gerrit Holtmann | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Bochum |
Matús Bero | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Moritz Broschinski |
| 76' |
Bochum |
Philipp Hofmann | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Giorgos Masouras |
| 80' |
Bochum |
Mats Pannewig | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Wittek |
| 84' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Leonidas Stergiou |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 90 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.96 | 0.16 | 2.12 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Leonidas Stergiou DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.55 | 1.23 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Ramon Hendriks DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| Atakan Karazor MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.96 |
| Fabian Rieder MR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.91 |
| Yannik Keitel MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Chris Führich ML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Luca Jaquez DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| El Bilal Touré Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Finn Jeltsch Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pascal Stenzel Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bochum
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Hofmann FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
| Ivan Ordets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Tim Oermann DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Timo Horn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maximilian Wittek DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Matús Bero MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Gerrit Holtmann DML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Felix Passlack DMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.05 | 0.38 |
| Myron Boadu FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgos Masouras Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| Erhan Masovic Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Moritz Broschinski Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Mats Pannewig Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dani de Wit Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |