Bologna v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 7 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 11
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.38
Goals − xG
-1.12 – +0.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
45.5%
Draw
28.2%
Atalanta win
26.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.46 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 1.12 xGAtalanta 1.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 3' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 6' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 16' |
 Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 36' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 39' |
Bologna |
Martin Vitík | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 42' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 44' |
Atalanta |
Honest Ahanor | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 46' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Thijs Dallinga |
| 57' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
| 57' |
Bologna |
Torbjørn Heggem | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 58' |
Bologna |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 58' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Marten de Roon |
| 62' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Éderson |
| 64' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 69' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Atalanta |
Marco Brescianini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Martin Vitík DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lewis Ferguson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.73 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Federico Ravaglia GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nadir Zortea DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| Giovanni Fabbian AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.04 | 0.71 |
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.65 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Ciro Immobile Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Moro Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honest Ahanor DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.72 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 78 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Éderson MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.14 |
| Isak Hien Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yunus Musah Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |