Bologna v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.53
Goals − xG
-0.68 – -0.87
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
48.4%
Draw
25.0%
Cagliari win
26.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna have scored 13 from 14.7 expected and conceded 15 from 14.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLDLDWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.7 xG
conceded 15
from 14.1 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLWWWDL last 10
scored 10
from 15.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–0.99 | 1-0 12% | 47% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 0.68 xGCagliari 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16' |
 Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 20' |
 Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 25' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 30' |
Bologna |
Benjamín Domínguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eivind Helland |
| 33' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eivind Helland |
| 42' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 43' |
Bologna |
Simon Sohm | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 44' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 45' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Remo Freuler |
| 48' |
Cagliari |
Sulemana | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 49' |
Cagliari |
Alberto Dossena | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adam Obert |
| 54' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
| 58' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Bologna |
Jhon Lucumí | 0.17 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 66' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 75' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo De Silvestri |
| 79' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Obert |
| 80' |
Cagliari |
Zé Pedro | 0.39 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Folorunsho |
| 86' |
Cagliari |
Yerry Mina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 93' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Remo Freuler |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nikola Moro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| Eivind Helland DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Massimo Pessina GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.01 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Federico Bernardeschi AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| Benjamín Domínguez AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jens Odgaard FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Simon Sohm AMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Riccardo Orsolini Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Lewis Ferguson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zé Pedro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Folorunsho ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| Alberto Dossena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marco Palestra MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Sulemana Sub | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alessandro Deiola MC | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Paul Mendy Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |