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Bologna v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–0
2.32 – 1.14 xG
Shots
16 – 10
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.33
Goals − xG
-1.32 – -1.14
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.32.02.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jens Odgaard 58' — goal
Bologna 2.32 xGFiorentina 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Benjamín Domínguez 6' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Pobega 8' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Benjamín Domínguez 9' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Remo Freuler 10' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Albert Gudmundsson 10' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 11' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 13' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Lucas Beltrán 16' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 36' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Albert Gudmundsson 39' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Lucas Beltrán 39' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Danilo Cataldi 42' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 43' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Santiago Castro 45' — Shot On Post (0.31 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 46' — Missed Shot (0.51 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Pobega 49' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 50' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 54' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 58' — Goal (0.44 xG, Open Play)Emil Holm 62' — Missed Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 66' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Pobega 70' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Tommaso Pobega 70' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lewis Ferguson 79' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Amir Richardson 79' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Ikone 83' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)
Bologna attacking right Fiorentina attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Bologna Benjamín Domínguez 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dan Ndoye
8' Bologna Tommaso Pobega 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
9' Bologna Benjamín Domínguez 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
10' Bologna Remo Freuler 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tommaso Pobega
10' Fiorentina Albert Gudmundsson 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Yacine Adli
11' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
13' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.06 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
16' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Luca Ranieri
36' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jhon Lucumí
39' Fiorentina Albert Gudmundsson 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
39' Fiorentina Lucas Beltrán 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
42' Fiorentina Danilo Cataldi 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Albert Gudmundsson
43' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.10 From Corner Saved Shot Yacine Adli
45' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Lewis Ferguson
46' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.51 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jens Odgaard
49' Bologna Tommaso Pobega 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sam Beukema
50' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Beltrán
54' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Remo Freuler
58' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Goal Remo Freuler
62' Bologna Emil Holm 0.39 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Santiago Castro
66' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
70' Bologna Tommaso Pobega 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot
70' Bologna Tommaso Pobega 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lewis Ferguson
79' Bologna Lewis Ferguson 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Santiago Castro
79' Fiorentina Amir Richardson 0.30 Open Play Saved Shot Robin Gosens
83' Fiorentina Jonathan Ikone 0.06 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Riccardo Sottil

Players

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Moise Kean FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.22 0.00 0.81
Yacine Adli DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.40 0.29
David de Gea GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Dodô DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.68
Luca Ranieri DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Pietro Comuzzo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lucas Beltrán AML 83 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.11 0.44
Robin Gosens DL 83 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.30 0.30
Danilo Cataldi DMC 72 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Andrea Colpani AMR 72 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.37
Albert Gudmundsson AMC 60 0 0 2 1 0.33 0.08 0.37
Riccardo Sottil Sub 30 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.30
Amir Richardson Sub 18 0 0 1 0 0.30 0.00 0.30
Jonathan Ikone Sub 18 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.30
Christian Kouamé Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fabiano Parisi Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bologna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jens Odgaard AMC 90 1 0 4 1 0.86 0.51 1.39
Santiago Castro FW 90 0 0 2 2 0.34 0.41 0.81
Tommaso Pobega DMC 90 0 0 4 1 0.10 0.01 1.41
Remo Freuler DMC 90 0 1 1 2 0.01 0.47 0.88
Sam Beukema DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.08
Lukasz Skorupski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jhon Lucumí DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Benjamín Domínguez AML 84 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.68
Lorenzo De Silvestri DR 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.87
Emil Holm DL 79 0 0 1 0 0.39 0.00 0.46
Dan Ndoye AMR 48 0 0 1 1 0.51 0.05 0.57
Lewis Ferguson Sub 42 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.33 0.79
Charalampos Lykogiannis Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stefan Posch Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Samuel Iling-Junior Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thijs Dallinga Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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