Bologna v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Bologna

13:00 UTC

Internazionale

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 941h before kick-off

Bologna win

21.8%

model 22.4%

Draw

27.1%

model 25.3%

Internazionale win

51.1%

model 52.2%

222751

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 12.8%
1-1 12.0%
0-2 10.1%
1-2 9.4%
0-0 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	45.7%	Under 2.5	54.3%
BTTS yes	48.1%	BTTS no	51.9%
Bologna 1+	60.7%	Bologna 2+	24.0%
Internazionale 1+	79.2%	Internazionale 2+	46.6%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.57. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Internazionale (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

51.6% fair odds 1.94

strong signal · 1020 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 4281 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Internazionale carry the stronger rating, 1827 Elo against 1535.
Internazionale have created 2.21 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.08.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Internazionale average 1.90 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Internazionale have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 27.1% for the draw and 21.8% for Bologna. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.93 for Bologna and 1.57 for Internazionale.

Why Bologna

Bologna have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Internazionale have allowed 1.35. At home Bologna average 1.57 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.1%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Internazionale can win

Internazionale carry the stronger rating, 1827 Elo against 1535. Internazionale have created 2.21 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.08. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. Away from home Internazionale average 1.90 xG a match.

Key players

Bologna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Roberto Piccoli (0.39), Santiago Castro (0.30), Jonathan Rowe (0.27). Internazionale's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lautaro Martínez (0.70), Federico Dimarco (0.57), Marcus Thuram (0.50).

Availability

2 of Bologna's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Bologna's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Internazionale's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Bologna: 56% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.62 xG a match from set pieces. Internazionale: 62% possession, 20.4 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.58 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Internazionale are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLDWWDLLD last 10 scored 11 from 14.7 xG conceded 13 from 10.8 xG

Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WWDWWDDWWW last 10 scored 26 from 22.1 xG conceded 12 from 13.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	222552	0.93–1.57	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	272350	1.30–1.82	1-1 10%	60%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win	52.2%	51.8%	34.0%	1.53×	1.93
Draw	25.3%	27.6%	26.8%	1.03×	3.63
Bologna to win	22.4%	22.1%	39.4%	0.56×	4.52

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale & not both score	31.1%	32.7%	20.8%	1.57×	3.06
Internazionale & both teams score	21.1%	22.6%	13.3%	1.70×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	17.2%	17.7%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Bologna & not both score	12.6%	12.2%	22.6%	0.54×	8.22
Bologna & both teams score	9.8%	7.3%	16.9%	0.43×	13.62
Draw & not both score	8.2%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.66

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale & over 1.5	39.4%	37.6%	24.6%	1.53×	2.66
Internazionale & under 3.5	37.6%	37.5%	26.6%	1.41×	2.67
Internazionale & over 2.5	29.3%	25.5%	18.1%	1.41×	3.92
Internazionale & under 2.5	22.9%	21.5%	16.0%	1.34×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	20.1%	21.5%	19.9%	1.08×	4.65
Draw & under 3.5	20.1%	21.5%	19.9%	1.08×	4.65
Bologna & under 3.5	17.9%	17.6%	29.4%	0.60×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	17.2%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Bologna & over 1.5	14.8%	12.7%	29.0%	0.44×	7.86
Internazionale & over 3.5	14.6%	12.7%	7.4%	1.71×	7.86
Internazionale & under 1.5	12.8%	12.7%	9.5%	1.34×	7.86
Bologna & over 2.5	11.2%	12.7%	22.5%	0.57×	7.87
Bologna & under 2.5	11.2%	12.7%	17.0%	0.75×	7.87
Draw & under 1.5	8.2%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.40
Bologna & under 1.5	7.6%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Bologna & over 3.5	4.5%	4.6%	10.1%	0.45×	21.91

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (1UP)	65.1%	72.0%	51.1%	1.41×	1.39
Bologna (1UP)	38.7%	38.2%	54.7%	0.70×	2.62

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (2UP)	52.2%	53.9%	36.5%	1.48×	1.86
Bologna (2UP)	22.4%	21.1%	41.0%	0.51×	4.74

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to win 2nd half	46.6%	44.5%	29.5%	1.50×	2.25
2nd half drawn	34.4%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
Bologna to win 2nd half	19.1%	20.2%	34.7%	0.58×	4.94

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (+2.5)	98.0%	97.2%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Internazionale (+1.5)	92.3%	92.3%	83.0%	1.11×	1.08
Internazionale (+0.5)	77.6%	78.6%	60.6%	1.30×	1.27
Internazionale (-0.5)	52.2%	51.6%	34.0%	1.52×	1.94
Bologna (+0.5)	47.8%	48.4%	66.0%	0.73×	2.07
Bologna (-0.5)	22.4%	21.4%	39.4%	0.54×	4.67
Bologna (-1.5)	7.7%	7.7%	17.0%	0.45×	12.98
Bologna (-2.5)	2.0%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	35.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to concede	60.7%	63.5%	71.1%	0.89×	1.58
Internazionale clean sheet	39.3%	36.5%	28.9%	1.26×	2.74

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale clean sheet in 1st half	67.1%	68.3%	58.8%	1.16×	1.46
Internazionale to concede in 1st half	32.9%	31.7%	41.2%	0.77×	3.16

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale under 6.5 corners	78.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Internazionale over 2.5 corners	76.7%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Internazionale under 5.5 corners	67.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Internazionale over 3.5 corners	61.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Internazionale under 4.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Internazionale over 4.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Internazionale under 3.5 corners	38.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Internazionale over 5.5 corners	32.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Internazionale under 2.5 corners	23.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Internazionale over 6.5 corners	22.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale under 3.5 goals	92.5%	92.6%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Internazionale over 0.5 goals	79.2%	75.4%	69.3%	1.09×	1.33
Internazionale under 2.5 goals	79.1%	75.3%	88.4%	0.85×	1.33
Internazionale under 1.5 goals	53.4%	52.0%	65.4%	0.79×	1.92
Internazionale over 1.5 goals	46.6%	48.0%	34.6%	1.39×	2.08
Internazionale over 2.5 goals	20.9%	24.7%	11.6%	2.12×	4.06
Internazionale under 0.5 goals	20.8%	24.7%	30.7%	0.80×	4.06
Internazionale over 3.5 goals	7.5%	7.4%	2.9%	2.53×	13.59

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	87.7%	90.2%	0.97×	1.14
Internazionale under 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	59.2%	59.0%	1.00×	1.69
Internazionale over 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	40.8%	41.0%	0.99×	2.45
Internazionale over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	12.3%	9.8%	1.25×	8.14

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	53.0%	51.5%	40.5%	1.27×	1.94
Bologna (away no bet)	47.0%	48.5%	59.5%	0.82×	2.06

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale even goals	52.2%	52.4%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Internazionale odd goals	47.8%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.6%	86.5%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.4%	13.5%	12.8%	1.06×	7.39

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.3%	56.0%	59.6%	0.94×	1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.7%	44.0%	40.4%	1.09×	2.27

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.5%	52.9%	52.8%	1.00×	1.89
Internazionale to score 2+ in a row	39.7%	37.5%	27.7%	1.35×	2.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.6%	17.8%	17.3%	1.03×	5.61
Bologna to score 2+ in a row	17.3%	17.8%	31.1%	0.57×	5.61
Internazionale to score 3+ in a row	15.0%	17.8%	7.7%	2.31×	5.63
Bologna to score 3+ in a row	3.7%	3.4%	9.7%	0.35×	29.44

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale corners (+3.5)	87.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Internazionale corners (+2.5)	80.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Bologna corners (+3.5)	79.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Internazionale corners (+1.5)	72.3%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Bologna corners (+2.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Bologna corners (+1.5)	61.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Internazionale corners (-1.5)	39.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Internazionale corners (-2.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Bologna corners (-1.5)	27.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Internazionale corners (-3.5)	20.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Bologna corners (-2.5)	19.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Bologna corners (-3.5)	12.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.4%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	20.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.4%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	79.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	71.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	37.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	28.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 11.5 corners	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	14.6%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	12.8%	11.6%	9.5%	1.22×	8.63
1-1	12.0%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.63
0-2	10.1%	11.6%	6.7%	1.73×	8.64
1-2	9.4%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.74
0-0	8.2%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.74
1-0	7.6%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.74
2-1	5.6%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.75
0-3	5.3%	7.3%	3.3%	2.21×	13.76
1-3	4.9%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.39
2-2	4.4%	1.8%	6.1%	0.30×	55.40
2-0	3.6%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.42
Any other score	2.5%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.45
0-4	2.1%	1.8%	1.0%	1.79×	55.46
1-4	1.9%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.46
2-3	2.3%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.45
3-1	1.7%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.47
3-2	1.4%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.47
2-4	0.9%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.49
3-0	1.1%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.48
3-3	0.7%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.49
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-0	0.3%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.50
4-1	0.4%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.50
4-2	0.3%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.50
4-3	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale leading at HT (DNB)	60.1%	64.8%	49.9%	1.30×	1.54
Bologna leading at HT (DNB)	39.9%	35.2%	50.1%	0.70×	2.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw (X2)	77.6%	77.9%	60.6%	1.28×	1.28
Bologna or Internazionale (12)	74.7%	72.4%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
Bologna or draw (1X)	47.8%	48.2%	66.0%	0.73×	2.08

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw at HT	79.1%	78.8%	72.5%	1.09×	1.27
Bologna or draw at HT	68.5%	66.3%	72.6%	0.91×	1.51
Bologna or Internazionale at HT	52.5%	52.0%	54.8%	0.95×	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw (1UP)	77.6%	84.6%	66.3%	1.28×	1.18
Bologna or draw (1UP)	47.8%	55.1%	71.3%	0.77×	1.82

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale or draw in 2nd half	80.9%	79.8%	65.3%	1.22×	1.25
Bologna or Internazionale in 2nd half	65.6%	66.2%	64.1%	1.03×	1.51
Bologna or draw in 2nd half	53.4%	55.5%	70.5%	0.79×	1.80

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.6%	66.0%	64.4%	1.02×	1.52
Neither half drawn	34.4%	34.0%	35.6%	0.95×	2.94

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (DNB)	70.0%	68.6%	46.3%	1.48×	1.46
Bologna (DNB)	30.0%	31.4%	53.7%	0.58×	3.19

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score first	57.6%	62.1%	44.2%	1.40×	1.61
Bologna to score first	34.2%	32.0%	47.7%	0.67×	3.13
No goal scored	8.2%	6.3%	8.2%	0.76×	15.94

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	51.9%	52.9%	51.4%	1.03×	1.89
Both teams to score	48.1%	47.1%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.3%	42.3%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
Both score & over 2.5	36.1%	37.4%	36.9%	1.01×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.43

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.8%	85.6%	86.9%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.2%	14.4%	13.1%	1.10×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.6%	70.5%	74.7%	0.94×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.5%	29.5%	25.3%	1.17×	3.39

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.2%	59.6%	63.1%	0.94×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	22.7%	24.4%	20.5%	1.19×	4.10
Both score 1st half only	10.3%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.68
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.0%	85.4%	83.5%	1.02×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.0%	14.6%	16.5%	0.88×	6.87

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.6%	54.6%	48.2%	1.13×	1.83
A goal in each half	48.4%	45.4%	51.8%	0.88×	2.20

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.0%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
0-1 goals	28.6%	27.7%	27.9%	0.99×	3.61
4-6 goals	22.9%	22.8%	23.5%	0.97×	4.39
7+ goals	1.4%	1.9%	0.9%	2.19×	51.77

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score exactly 1	32.7%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
Internazionale to score exactly 2	25.7%	27.0%	23.1%	1.17×	3.70
Internazionale to score 3+	20.9%	23.9%	11.6%	2.06×	4.18
Internazionale to score exactly 0	20.8%	23.9%	30.7%	0.78×	4.18

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to score exactly 0	39.3%	36.1%	28.9%	1.25×	2.77
Bologna to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	32.3%	1.11×	2.78
Bologna to score exactly 2	17.1%	18.5%	24.6%	0.75×	5.41
Bologna to score 3+	6.9%	7.9%	14.4%	0.55×	12.58

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.5%	48.0%	45.2%	1.06×	2.09
Internazionale leading at HT	31.5%	33.7%	27.4%	1.23×	2.97
Bologna leading at HT	20.9%	21.2%	27.5%	0.77×	4.72

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale -1: 1	47.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Internazionale -1: 2	27.4%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Internazionale -1: X	24.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:1)	77.6%	80.8%	60.6%	1.33×	1.24
Draw (0:1)	14.8%	10.8%	22.5%	0.48×	9.28
Bologna (0:1)	7.7%	8.5%	17.0%	0.50×	11.75

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:2)	92.3%	91.4%	83.0%	1.10×	1.09
Draw (0:2)	5.7%	7.1%	9.6%	0.74×	14.02
Bologna (0:2)	2.0%	3.0%	7.6%	0.39×	33.64

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:3)	98.0%	97.2%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	1.6%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.25
Bologna (0:3)	0.4%	2.3%	3.2%	0.73×	43.51

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (0:4)	99.6%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.17
Bologna (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	81.32

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (1:0)	47.8%	46.4%	66.0%	0.70×	2.16
Internazionale (1:0)	27.4%	28.6%	14.1%	2.03×	3.49
Draw (1:0)	24.9%	23.0%	19.9%	1.15×	4.35

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna (2:0)	72.6%	74.4%	85.9%	0.87×	1.34
Draw (2:0)	16.0%	14.9%	8.5%	1.76×	6.73
Internazionale (2:0)	11.4%	12.1%	5.8%	2.08×	8.29

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.3%	50.6%	46.6%	1.09×	1.98
Halves equal	25.5%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	23.2%	23.2%	26.8%	0.87×	4.32

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to concede	79.2%	77.4%	69.3%	1.12×	1.29
Bologna clean sheet	20.8%	22.6%	30.7%	0.74×	4.43

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna clean sheet in 1st half	57.4%	59.1%	59.0%	1.00×	1.69
Bologna to concede in 1st half	42.6%	40.9%	41.0%	1.00×	2.44

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 6.5 corners	84.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Bologna under 5.5 corners	75.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Bologna over 2.5 corners	70.1%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Bologna under 4.5 corners	62.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Bologna over 3.5 corners	53.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Bologna under 3.5 corners	47.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Bologna over 4.5 corners	37.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Bologna under 2.5 corners	29.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Bologna over 5.5 corners	24.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Bologna over 6.5 corners	15.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.8%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Bologna under 2.5 goals	93.1%	92.1%	85.6%	1.08×	1.09
Bologna under 1.5 goals	76.0%	76.7%	61.1%	1.26×	1.30
Bologna over 0.5 goals	60.7%	62.6%	71.1%	0.88×	1.60
Bologna under 0.5 goals	39.3%	37.4%	28.9%	1.29×	2.67
Bologna over 1.5 goals	24.0%	23.3%	38.9%	0.60×	4.29
Bologna over 2.5 goals	6.9%	7.9%	14.4%	0.55×	12.67
Bologna over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.2%	4.5%	0.49×	45.10

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna under 1.5 in 1st half	93.9%	93.2%	90.2%	1.03×	1.07
Bologna under 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	69.0%	58.8%	1.17×	1.45
Bologna over 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	31.0%	41.2%	0.75×	3.23
Bologna over 1.5 in 1st half	6.1%	6.8%	9.8%	0.69×	14.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale (home no bet)	67.3%	68.4%	55.9%	1.22×	1.46
Draw (home no bet)	32.7%	31.6%	44.1%	0.72×	3.16

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna even goals	57.7%	58.1%	56.6%	1.03×	1.72
Bologna odd goals	42.3%	41.9%	43.4%	0.96×	2.39

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.5%	36.6%	34.3%	1.07×	2.73
HT 0-1	21.4%	22.6%	18.4%	1.23×	4.42
HT 1-0	15.4%	18.9%	18.3%	1.03×	5.30
HT 1-1	8.5%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	12.99
HT 0-2	5.9%	7.7%	5.4%	1.41×	13.02
HT 2-0	3.1%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.83
Any other HT score	2.7%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.85
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.87
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.5%	2.3%	1.10×	39.90
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.5%	0.6%	3.96×	39.97

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale at HT / Internazionale at FT	26.7%	27.1%	19.2%	1.41×	3.69
Draw at HT / Internazionale at FT	22.1%	21.4%	13.0%	1.65×	4.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.3%	16.8%	16.7%	1.01×	5.97
Bologna at HT / Bologna at FT	12.3%	12.0%	21.3%	0.56×	8.36
Draw at HT / Bologna at FT	9.1%	6.6%	15.8%	0.42×	15.17
Bologna at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.6%	4.4%	1.48×	15.27
Internazionale at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.4%	5.9%	0.57×	29.35
Bologna at HT / Internazionale at FT	3.4%	3.4%	2.0%	1.69×	29.37
Internazionale at HT / Bologna at FT	1.1%	3.4%	2.5%	1.34×	29.47

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale to score last	57.6%	56.5%	43.6%	1.30×	1.77
Bologna to score last	34.2%	35.9%	48.4%	0.74×	2.79
No goal scored	8.2%	6.3%	8.2%	0.76×	15.94

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.8%	93.7%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Internazionale to lead by 1 at any time	65.1%	70.7%	51.1%	1.38×	1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.6%	42.2%	42.6%	0.99×	2.37
Bologna to lead by 1 at any time	38.7%	37.3%	54.7%	0.68×	2.68
Internazionale to lead by 2 at any time	33.0%	32.1%	20.1%	1.60×	3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.2%	17.6%	14.5%	1.21×	5.67
Internazionale to lead by 3 at any time	13.4%	11.3%	6.3%	1.80×	8.82
Bologna to lead by 2 at any time	11.7%	11.3%	22.9%	0.50×	8.84
Bologna to lead by 3 at any time	2.8%	2.6%	8.3%	0.31×	38.32

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale most corners	50.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Bologna most corners	38.2%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.9%	81.5%	80.7%	1.01×	1.23
2-6 goals	70.0%	68.4%	71.3%	0.96×	1.46
1-3 goals	67.5%	68.3%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
2-5 goals	67.2%	68.3%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
2-4 goals	60.4%	62.2%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
2-3 goals	47.0%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
1-2 goals	46.1%	48.0%	44.7%	1.07×	2.08
3-6 goals	44.3%	43.6%	46.5%	0.94×	2.29
3-5 goals	41.5%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.8%	34.2%	36.1%	0.95×	2.93
4-6 goals	22.9%	24.7%	23.5%	1.05×	4.04
4-5 goals	20.1%	24.7%	21.6%	1.14×	4.05
5-6 goals	9.5%	8.9%	10.5%	0.85×	11.27
7+ goals	1.4%	2.0%	0.9%	2.28×	49.73

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Internazionale never behind	53.1%	61.3%	45.3%	1.35×	1.63
Bologna never behind	26.7%	30.9%	48.9%	0.63×	3.23

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.4%	55.3%	56.8%	0.97×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	42.6%	44.7%	43.2%	1.03×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.8%	95.6%	97.2%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.8%	92.9%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.1%	88.8%	88.8%	1.00×	1.13
Under 3.5 goals	75.6%	78.2%	75.8%	1.03×	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	71.4%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	54.2%	53.6%	52.8%	1.02×	1.87
Over 2.5 goals	45.8%	46.4%	47.2%	0.98×	2.15
Under 1.5 goals	28.6%	27.6%	27.9%	0.99×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	24.4%	21.8%	24.2%	0.90×	4.59
Over 4.5 goals	10.9%	11.2%	11.2%	1.00×	8.92
Under 0.5 goals	8.2%	7.1%	8.2%	0.86×	14.16
Over 5.5 goals	4.2%	4.4%	2.8%	1.58×	22.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.5%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.4%	88.1%	87.1%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.0%	68.1%	68.5%	0.99×	1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	61.5%	62.3%	62.9%	0.99×	1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.5%	37.7%	37.1%	1.01×	2.66
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.0%	31.9%	31.5%	1.01×	3.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.6%	11.9%	12.9%	0.92×	8.40
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.5%	2.8%	3.0%	0.92×	35.75
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.8%	0.9%	3.06×	36.23

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.8%	92.2%	91.9%	1.00×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	75.3%	77.9%	70.8%	1.10×	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.5%	63.0%	65.7%	0.96×	1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.5%	37.0%	34.3%	1.08×	2.70
Over 1.5 in 1st half	24.7%	22.1%	29.2%	0.76×	4.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.2%	7.8%	8.1%	0.96×	12.89

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	80.3%	82.3%	0.98×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	80.3%	77.9%	1.03×	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	51.8%	43.2%	1.20×	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	48.2%	56.8%	0.85×	2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	19.7%	22.1%	0.89×	5.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	19.7%	17.7%	1.11×	5.08

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to score in both halves	86.4%	84.5%	76.3%	1.11×	1.18
Internazionale not to score in both halves	72.8%	70.4%	78.8%	0.89×	1.42
Internazionale to score in both halves	27.2%	29.6%	21.2%	1.40×	3.38
Bologna to score in both halves	13.6%	15.5%	23.7%	0.65×	6.45

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	48.1%	49.5%	48.6%	1.02×	2.02
Only Internazionale scores	31.1%	36.0%	20.8%	1.73×	2.78
Only Bologna scores	12.6%	10.8%	22.6%	0.48×	9.25
Neither team scores	8.2%	6.7%	8.2%	0.81×	15.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.6%	24.7%	25.0%	0.99×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	21.4%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	20.5%	21.5%	19.8%	1.09×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	13.4%	12.4%	13.1%	0.94×	8.08
Exactly 0 goals	8.2%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.12
Exactly 5 goals	6.7%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.2%	4.4%	2.8%	1.57×	22.86

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.9%	50.8%	43.2%	1.18×	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	32.9%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	21.2%	18.5%	22.1%	0.84×	5.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to win both halves	96.0%	96.7%	90.3%	1.07×	1.04
Internazionale not to win both halves	85.3%	87.5%	91.4%	0.96×	1.14
Internazionale to win both halves	14.7%	12.5%	8.6%	1.46×	7.98
Bologna to win both halves	4.0%	3.4%	9.7%	0.34×	29.85

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna to win neither half	64.0%	63.7%	47.5%	1.34×	1.57
Internazionale to win either half	63.4%	63.7%	48.4%	1.32×	1.57
Internazionale to win neither half	36.6%	36.3%	51.6%	0.70×	2.75
Bologna to win either half	36.0%	36.3%	52.5%	0.69×	2.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bologna not to win to nil	87.4%	88.3%	77.4%	1.14×	1.13
Internazionale not to win to nil	68.9%	64.9%	79.2%	0.82×	1.54
Internazionale to win to nil	31.1%	35.1%	20.8%	1.68×	2.85
Bologna to win to nil	12.6%	11.7%	22.6%	0.52×	8.52

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	28.0%	26.8%	1.05×	3.57
Internazionale by 1	24.9%	23.8%	19.9%	1.19×	4.21
Internazionale by 2	16.0%	17.0%	8.5%	2.00×	5.90
Bologna by 1	14.8%	11.9%	22.5%	0.53×	8.42
Internazionale by 3+	11.4%	11.8%	5.8%	2.04×	8.44
Bologna by 2	5.7%	7.1%	9.6%	0.74×	14.14
Bologna by 3+	2.0%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	35.50