Bologna v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.46 – 0.61
Goals − xG
-1.01 – -1.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
47.2%
Draw
30.2%
Juventus win
22.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.23 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 1.01 xGJuventus 2.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 4' |
 Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.36 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 9' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 12' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 17' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 31' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 37' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 42' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 45' |
Bologna |
Nadir Zortea | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 46' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 54' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 58' |
Bologna |
Lewis Ferguson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 62' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 63' |
Juventus |
Juan Cabal | 0.53 | From Corner | — | Goal | Kenan Yildiz |
| 70' |
Juventus |
Juan Cabal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 90' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 90' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Cabal |
| 93' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.28 | 0.54 |
| Tommaso Pobega DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Ravaglia GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nadir Zortea DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| Nikola Moro DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Lewis Ferguson AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Sulemana Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emil Holm Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bernardeschi Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston McKennie DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.51 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Francisco Conceição AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Teun Koopmeiners DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.25 | 0.96 |
| Juan Cabal Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| Bremer Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |