Bologna v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 6
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 2
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.72 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.13 – -0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
48.6%
Draw
28.7%
Lecce win
22.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–0.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–0.88 | 1-0 13% | 46% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 3.13 xGLecce 0.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 10' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 25' |
 Bologna |
Remo Freuler | 0.96 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 25' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jhon Lucumí |
| 37' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Casale | 0.59 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 40' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Casale |
| 40' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 41' |
Bologna |
Simon Sohm | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 50' |
Bologna |
Simon Sohm | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 52' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 62' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 72' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 76' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 91' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 93' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.12 | 0.04 | 2.12 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Nicolò Casale DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Massimo Pessina GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.76 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nikola Moro DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.70 | 0.08 |
| Simon Sohm AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| João Mário DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Pobega Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Jens Odgaard Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Federico Bernardeschi Sub | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.47 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| Lassana Coulibaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.41 |
| Corrie Ndaba DL | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omri Gandelman Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonino Gallo Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Sala Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |