Bologna v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 7 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 6
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.11 – +0.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
34.2%
Draw
29.7%
Napoli win
36.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.31–1.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.12–1.17 | 1-1 13% | 40% | 47% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 1.11 xGNapoli 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Napoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 17' |
 Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.76 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 19' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 26' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Remo Freuler |
| 27' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sam Beukema |
| 30' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | David Neres |
| 32' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovanni Di Lorenzo |
| 33' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | David Neres |
| 35' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Michel Aebischer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 52' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Bologna |
Dan Ndoye | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jens Odgaard |
| 87' |
Bologna |
Remo Freuler | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Bologna |
Emil Holm | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 93' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ndoye AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| Emil Holm DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.73 |
| Michel Aebischer DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.62 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Federico Ravaglia Sub | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Zambo MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Matteo Politano FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simone Scuffet GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romelu Lukaku FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mathías Olivera DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Jesus DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| David Neres FWL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Scott McTominay MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Billy Gilmour Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyril Ngonge Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |