Bologna v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 15
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
14 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.28
Goals − xG
-1.05 – +0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyBologna win
46.8%
model 45.3%
Draw
26.5%
model 26.1%
Sassuolo win
26.6%
model 28.6%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.4%
- 1-0 11.2%
- 2-1 9.1%
- 0-1 8.5%
- 2-0 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | Under 2.5 | 52.8% |
| BTTS yes | 51.3% | BTTS no | 48.7% |
| Bologna 1+ | 76.8% | Bologna 2+ | 42.9% |
| Sassuolo 1+ | 66.8% | Sassuolo 2+ | 30.2% |
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.10. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
95/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Bologna or draw (1X)
Double chance · usually 66%
72.3% fair odds 1.38
moderate signal · 1552 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 12.5 corners
Corners O/U
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 4269 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Bologna have created 1.33 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.47.
- At home Bologna average 1.48 xG a match.
- Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Sassuolo were missing 1.20 expected goal involvements a match against 0.89.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Bologna have an estimated 46.8% win probability, against 26.6% for Sassuolo and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for Bologna and 1.10 for Sassuolo.
Why Bologna
Bologna have created 1.33 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.47. At home Bologna average 1.48 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Sassuolo were missing 1.20 expected goal involvements a match against 0.89.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Sassuolo can win
Sassuolo have created 1.66 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.03. Away from home Sassuolo average 1.59 xG a match.
Key players
Bologna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Santiago Castro (0.30), Roberto Piccoli (0.30), Jonathan Rowe (0.27). Sassuolo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kieron Bowie (0.53), Armand Lauriente (0.41), Domenico Berardi (0.40).
Availability
2 of Bologna's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Bologna's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Sassuolo's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Sassuolo's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Bologna: 53% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.57 xG a match from set pieces. Sassuolo: 55% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Bologna are the model's most likely outcome at 46.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna have scored 13 from 14.7 expected and conceded 15 from 14.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLDLDWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.7 xG
conceded 15
from 14.1 xG
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLWDWLDL last 10
scored 15
from 18.8 xG
conceded 20
from 18.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.46–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| ai-blend-oos | 1.37–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.54–0.99 | 1-0 12% | 46% | 49% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–0.99 | 1-0 12% | 46% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to win | 49.3% | 47.5% | 39.3% | 1.21× | 2.11 |
| Sassuolo to win | 25.5% | 27.9% | 34.2% | 0.81× | 3.59 |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.9% | 26.7% | 1.04× | 3.59 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna & not both score | 27.4% | 25.2% | 22.7% | 1.11× | 3.97 |
| Bologna & both teams score | 21.9% | 21.9% | 16.7% | 1.31× | 4.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.0% | 17.9% | 18.5% | 0.97× | 5.58 |
| Sassuolo & not both score | 13.5% | 13.3% | 21.0% | 0.63× | 7.55 |
| Sassuolo & both teams score | 12.1% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 1.00× | 7.55 |
| Draw & not both score | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 1.01× | 11.95 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna & over 1.5 | 38.1% | 34.9% | 29.0% | 1.21× | 2.86 |
| Bologna & under 3.5 | 34.3% | 30.9% | 29.5% | 1.05× | 3.24 |
| Bologna & over 2.5 | 29.2% | 26.0% | 22.3% | 1.17× | 3.84 |
| Bologna & under 2.5 | 20.1% | 21.6% | 17.1% | 1.27× | 4.62 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 19.9% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Sassuolo & under 3.5 | 19.4% | 18.0% | 26.8% | 0.67× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.5% | 0.97× | 5.56 |
| Sassuolo & over 1.5 | 18.0% | 18.0% | 24.7% | 0.73× | 5.56 |
| Bologna & over 3.5 | 15.1% | 18.0% | 9.9% | 1.81× | 5.56 |
| Sassuolo & over 2.5 | 14.0% | 12.9% | 18.1% | 0.71× | 7.77 |
| Sassuolo & under 2.5 | 11.6% | 12.9% | 16.2% | 0.79× | 7.78 |
| Bologna & under 1.5 | 11.3% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 1.23× | 7.78 |
| Sassuolo & under 1.5 | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 0.82× | 12.69 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 0.95× | 12.69 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 1.14× | 12.69 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 1.14× | 12.69 |
| Sassuolo & over 3.5 | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 1.05× | 12.69 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (1UP) | 63.5% | 63.2% | 54.6% | 1.16× | 1.58 |
| Sassuolo (1UP) | 42.8% | 38.8% | 50.9% | 0.76× | 2.58 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (2UP) | 49.3% | 50.0% | 40.9% | 1.22× | 2.00 |
| Sassuolo (2UP) | 25.5% | 24.5% | 36.6% | 0.67× | 4.09 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to win 2nd half | 40.6% | 41.1% | 34.6% | 1.19× | 2.43 |
| 2nd half drawn | 34.9% | 34.5% | 36.0% | 0.96× | 2.90 |
| Sassuolo to win 2nd half | 24.5% | 23.1% | 29.6% | 0.78× | 4.33 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo (+2.5) | 89.4% | 88.5% | 92.3% | 0.96× | 1.13 |
| Bologna (+0.5) | 74.5% | 73.7% | 65.8% | 1.12× | 1.36 |
| Sassuolo (+1.5) | 74.4% | 73.7% | 82.8% | 0.89× | 1.36 |
| Sassuolo (+0.5) | 50.7% | 52.3% | 60.7% | 0.86× | 1.91 |
| Bologna (-0.5) | 49.3% | 47.7% | 39.3% | 1.21× | 2.10 |
| Sassuolo (-0.5) | 25.5% | 26.3% | 34.2% | 0.77× | 3.80 |
| Bologna (-1.5) | 25.6% | 26.3% | 17.2% | 1.53× | 3.80 |
| Bologna (-2.5) | 10.6% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 1.50× | 8.70 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo to concede | 79.4% | 79.0% | 70.8% | 1.12× | 1.27 |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 20.6% | 21.0% | 29.2% | 0.72× | 4.77 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo to concede in 1st half | 47.3% | 50.9% | 41.3% | 1.23× | 1.97 |
| Sassuolo clean sheet in 1st half | 52.7% | 49.1% | 58.7% | 0.84× | 2.04 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo under 6.5 corners | 90.2% | 89.2% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Sassuolo under 5.5 corners | 82.7% | 80.9% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Sassuolo under 4.5 corners | 71.3% | 72.3% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Sassuolo over 2.5 corners | 63.0% | 61.4% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Sassuolo under 3.5 corners | 55.7% | 56.9% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Sassuolo over 3.5 corners | 44.3% | 43.1% | — | — | 2.32 |
| Sassuolo under 2.5 corners | 37.0% | 38.6% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Sassuolo over 4.5 corners | 28.7% | 27.7% | — | — | 3.61 |
| Sassuolo over 5.5 corners | 17.3% | 19.1% | — | — | 5.25 |
| Sassuolo over 6.5 corners | 9.8% | 10.8% | — | — | 9.25 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo under 3.5 goals | 97.7% | 97.6% | 97.1% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Sassuolo under 2.5 goals | 90.8% | 92.3% | 88.3% | 1.05× | 1.08 |
| Sassuolo under 1.5 goals | 71.3% | 71.9% | 65.6% | 1.10× | 1.39 |
| Sassuolo over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | 67.9% | 69.1% | 0.98× | 1.47 |
| Sassuolo under 0.5 goals | 34.6% | 32.1% | 30.9% | 1.04× | 3.12 |
| Sassuolo over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 28.1% | 34.4% | 0.82× | 3.56 |
| Sassuolo over 2.5 goals | 9.2% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 0.65× | 13.05 |
| Sassuolo over 3.5 goals | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.83× | 41.08 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo under 1.5 in 1st half | 93.7% | 94.2% | 90.1% | 1.05× | 1.06 |
| Sassuolo under 0.5 in 1st half | 66.7% | 67.8% | 58.8% | 1.15× | 1.47 |
| Sassuolo over 0.5 in 1st half | 33.3% | 32.2% | 41.2% | 0.78× | 3.11 |
| Sassuolo over 1.5 in 1st half | 6.3% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 0.58× | 17.20 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (away no bet) | 66.2% | 66.4% | 59.6% | 1.12× | 1.51 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 33.8% | 33.6% | 40.4% | 0.83× | 2.98 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo even goals | 56.0% | 56.9% | 55.6% | 1.02× | 1.76 |
| Sassuolo odd goals | 44.0% | 43.1% | 44.4% | 0.97× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 86.7% | 87.9% | 87.2% | 1.01× | 1.14 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 13.3% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 0.95× | 8.24 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 62.1% | 57.7% | 59.4% | 0.97× | 1.73 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 42.3% | 40.6% | 1.04× | 2.37 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 54.6% | 51.3% | 52.8% | 0.97× | 1.95 |
| Bologna to score 2+ in a row | 39.1% | 36.4% | 31.0% | 1.17× | 2.75 |
| Sassuolo to score 2+ in a row | 20.9% | 19.3% | 27.6% | 0.70× | 5.19 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 19.4% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 0.95× | 6.08 |
| Bologna to score 3+ in a row | 14.6% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 1.24× | 8.30 |
| Sassuolo to score 3+ in a row | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 0.71× | 18.14 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna corners (+3.5) | 92.6% | 88.7% | — | — | 1.13 |
| Bologna corners (+2.5) | 87.6% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Bologna corners (+1.5) | 80.5% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Sassuolo corners (+3.5) | 73.0% | 69.9% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Sassuolo corners (+2.5) | 63.0% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Sassuolo corners (+1.5) | 51.6% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Bologna corners (-1.5) | 48.4% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Bologna corners (-2.5) | 37.0% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Bologna corners (-3.5) | 27.0% | 30.1% | — | — | 3.32 |
| Sassuolo corners (-1.5) | 19.5% | 20.0% | — | — | 5.00 |
| Sassuolo corners (-2.5) | 12.4% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.32 |
| Sassuolo corners (-3.5) | 7.4% | 11.3% | — | — | 8.82 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 54.2% | 46.3% | — | — | 2.16 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.8% | 31.8% | — | — | 3.15 |
| 12+ corners | 19.0% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.60 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 86.8% | 82.8% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.0% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 73.7% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 64.6% | 62.7% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 57.1% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 54.2% | 52.3% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 45.8% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 42.9% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 35.4% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 26.3% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 19.0% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.96 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 13.2% | 17.2% | — | — | 5.81 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 50.4% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 0.98× | 8.73 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 1.09× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 1.10× | 13.46 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 0.81× | 13.46 |
| 0-0 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 0.90× | 13.46 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 0.78× | 13.46 |
| 1-2 | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 0.99× | 13.46 |
| 2-2 | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 1.24× | 13.46 |
| 3-0 | 4.7% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 0.50× | 58.57 |
| 3-1 | 5.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.56× | 58.56 |
| 0-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 6.8% | 0.25× | 58.57 |
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 0.51× | 58.58 |
| 0-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.67× | 58.59 |
| 1-3 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.89× | 58.58 |
| 1-4 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.23× | 58.59 |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.56× | 58.58 |
| 2-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.38× | 58.59 |
| 3-2 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.64× | 58.58 |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.91× | 58.59 |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.69× | 58.59 |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.03× | 58.58 |
| 4-1 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.49× | 58.58 |
| 4-2 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.38× | 58.59 |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.69× | 58.59 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.69× | 58.59 |
| Any other score | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.61× | 58.58 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna leading at HT (DNB) | 64.1% | 66.5% | 50.1% | 1.33× | 1.50 |
| Sassuolo leading at HT (DNB) | 35.9% | 33.5% | 49.9% | 0.67× | 2.99 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna or Sassuolo (12) | 74.9% | 72.1% | 73.3% | 0.98× | 1.39 |
| Bologna or draw (1X) | 74.5% | 72.1% | 65.8% | 1.10× | 1.39 |
| Sassuolo or draw (X2) | 50.7% | 52.5% | 60.7% | 0.86× | 1.91 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna or draw at HT | 80.2% | 84.0% | 72.6% | 1.16× | 1.19 |
| Sassuolo or draw at HT | 64.7% | 62.3% | 72.4% | 0.86× | 1.61 |
| Bologna or Sassuolo at HT | 55.1% | 56.7% | 54.8% | 1.03× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna or draw (1UP) | 74.5% | 80.1% | 71.0% | 1.13× | 1.25 |
| Sassuolo or draw (1UP) | 50.7% | 58.6% | 66.2% | 0.89× | 1.71 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna or draw in 2nd half | 75.5% | 76.9% | 70.4% | 1.09× | 1.30 |
| Bologna or Sassuolo in 2nd half | 65.1% | 65.5% | 64.0% | 1.02× | 1.53 |
| Sassuolo or draw in 2nd half | 59.4% | 58.9% | 65.4% | 0.90× | 1.70 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 64.1% | 61.6% | 64.4% | 0.96× | 1.62 |
| Neither half drawn | 35.9% | 38.4% | 35.6% | 1.08× | 2.61 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (DNB) | 65.9% | 67.1% | 53.5% | 1.26× | 1.49 |
| Sassuolo (DNB) | 34.1% | 32.9% | 46.5% | 0.71× | 3.04 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to score first | 55.5% | 62.1% | 47.8% | 1.30× | 1.61 |
| Sassuolo to score first | 37.4% | 32.5% | 44.0% | 0.74× | 3.08 |
| No goal scored | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 0.89× | 13.55 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 51.5% | 48.2% | 1.07× | 1.94 |
| Not both teams to score | 48.1% | 48.5% | 51.8% | 0.94× | 2.06 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 40.0% | 38.5% | 36.6% | 1.05× | 2.59 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 38.9% | 38.5% | 41.3% | 0.93× | 2.60 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 1.05× | 8.11 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.2% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 0.79× | 11.96 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 86.6% | 85.7% | 87.1% | 0.98× | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 13.4% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 1.11× | 6.98 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 70.7% | 74.4% | 75.3% | 0.99× | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 29.3% | 25.6% | 24.7% | 1.03× | 3.91 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 59.6% | 60.0% | 63.5% | 0.94× | 1.67 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 24.7% | 21.2% | 19.9% | 1.07× | 4.72 |
| Both score 1st half only | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 0.88× | 9.56 |
| Both score in both halves | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 1.01× | 19.97 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 84.2% | 82.9% | 83.3% | 1.00× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 15.8% | 17.1% | 16.7% | 1.02× | 5.86 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 51.7% | 53.3% | 51.9% | 1.03× | 1.88 |
| A half without a goal | 48.3% | 46.7% | 48.1% | 0.97× | 2.14 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.8% | 47.4% | 48.0% | 0.99× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 26.0% | 26.4% | 28.1% | 0.94× | 3.79 |
| 4-6 goals | 25.4% | 26.4% | 23.3% | 1.13× | 3.79 |
| 7+ goals | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.03× | 55.25 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo to score exactly 1 | 36.7% | 36.0% | 34.8% | 1.03× | 2.78 |
| Sassuolo to score exactly 0 | 34.6% | 33.9% | 30.9% | 1.10× | 2.95 |
| Sassuolo to score exactly 2 | 19.5% | 19.6% | 22.8% | 0.86× | 5.11 |
| Sassuolo to score 3+ | 9.2% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 0.72× | 11.77 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to score exactly 1 | 32.6% | 32.6% | 32.1% | 1.02× | 3.06 |
| Bologna to score exactly 2 | 25.7% | 26.5% | 24.6% | 1.08× | 3.77 |
| Bologna to score 3+ | 21.1% | 23.3% | 14.3% | 1.63× | 4.30 |
| Bologna to score exactly 0 | 20.6% | 23.3% | 29.2% | 0.80× | 4.30 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 44.9% | 43.3% | 45.2% | 0.96× | 2.31 |
| Bologna leading at HT | 35.3% | 37.7% | 27.6% | 1.37× | 2.65 |
| Sassuolo leading at HT | 19.8% | 16.0% | 27.4% | 0.58× | 6.25 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna -1: 2 | 50.7% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Bologna -1: 1 | 25.6% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Bologna -1: X | 23.7% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo (0:1) | 50.7% | 51.1% | 60.7% | 0.84× | 1.96 |
| Bologna (0:1) | 25.6% | 27.0% | 17.2% | 1.57× | 3.70 |
| Draw (0:1) | 23.7% | 24.3% | 22.2% | 1.10× | 4.11 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo (0:2) | 74.4% | 75.6% | 82.8% | 0.91× | 1.32 |
| Draw (0:2) | 15.0% | 15.3% | 9.7% | 1.58× | 6.54 |
| Bologna (0:2) | 10.6% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 1.44× | 9.09 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo (0:3) | 89.4% | 90.8% | 92.3% | 0.98× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.26× | 17.24 |
| Bologna (0:3) | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 0.75× | 41.98 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo (0:4) | 96.4% | 98.1% | 96.8% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 0.52× | 83.17 |
| Bologna (0:4) | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.18× | 83.36 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (1:0) | 74.5% | 72.6% | 65.8% | 1.10× | 1.38 |
| Draw (1:0) | 16.0% | 17.0% | 20.0% | 0.85× | 5.88 |
| Sassuolo (1:0) | 9.6% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 0.48× | 14.45 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (2:0) | 90.4% | 93.9% | 85.7% | 1.10× | 1.07 |
| Draw (2:0) | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 0.76× | 15.50 |
| Sassuolo (2:0) | 2.8% | 2.3% | 5.9% | 0.39× | 44.23 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 50.1% | 50.2% | 46.3% | 1.08× | 1.99 |
| Halves equal | 25.0% | 26.5% | 26.9% | 0.98× | 3.77 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 24.9% | 24.3% | 26.9% | 0.90× | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to concede | 65.4% | 66.5% | 69.1% | 0.96× | 1.51 |
| Bologna clean sheet | 34.6% | 33.5% | 30.9% | 1.09× | 2.98 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna clean sheet in 1st half | 66.7% | 68.2% | 58.8% | 1.16× | 1.47 |
| Bologna to concede in 1st half | 33.3% | 31.8% | 41.2% | 0.77× | 3.14 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna over 2.5 corners | 80.7% | 81.3% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Bologna under 6.5 corners | 73.8% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Bologna over 3.5 corners | 66.5% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Bologna under 5.5 corners | 62.3% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Bologna over 4.5 corners | 51.5% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Bologna under 4.5 corners | 48.5% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Bologna over 5.5 corners | 37.7% | 38.0% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Bologna under 3.5 corners | 33.5% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Bologna over 6.5 corners | 26.2% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Bologna under 2.5 corners | 19.3% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.35 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna under 3.5 goals | 92.4% | 92.2% | 95.4% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Bologna over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | 77.7% | 70.8% | 1.10× | 1.29 |
| Bologna under 2.5 goals | 78.9% | 77.7% | 85.7% | 0.91× | 1.29 |
| Bologna under 1.5 goals | 53.2% | 53.3% | 61.2% | 0.87× | 1.88 |
| Bologna over 1.5 goals | 46.8% | 46.7% | 38.8% | 1.20× | 2.14 |
| Bologna over 2.5 goals | 21.1% | 22.3% | 14.3% | 1.56× | 4.49 |
| Bologna under 0.5 goals | 20.6% | 22.3% | 29.2% | 0.76× | 4.49 |
| Bologna over 3.5 goals | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 1.69× | 12.89 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna under 1.5 in 1st half | 86.5% | 89.9% | 90.2% | 1.00× | 1.11 |
| Bologna over 0.5 in 1st half | 47.3% | 51.0% | 41.3% | 1.23× | 1.96 |
| Bologna under 0.5 in 1st half | 52.7% | 49.0% | 58.7% | 0.84× | 2.04 |
| Bologna over 1.5 in 1st half | 13.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 1.03× | 9.90 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo (home no bet) | 50.4% | 51.5% | 56.2% | 0.92× | 1.94 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 49.6% | 48.5% | 43.8% | 1.11× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna even goals | 52.1% | 50.6% | 56.9% | 0.89× | 1.98 |
| Bologna odd goals | 47.9% | 49.4% | 43.1% | 1.14× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 35.1% | 38.2% | 34.2% | 1.12× | 2.62 |
| HT 1-0 | 22.5% | 24.2% | 18.4% | 1.32× | 4.13 |
| HT 0-1 | 14.3% | 11.1% | 18.4% | 0.60× | 9.03 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.1% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 0.67× | 14.08 |
| HT 2-0 | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 1.29× | 14.11 |
| Any other HT score | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 0.73× | 44.66 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 0.41× | 44.71 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.97× | 44.71 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 0.88× | 44.79 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 3.49× | 44.89 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna at HT / Bologna at FT | 28.5% | 26.7% | 21.3% | 1.25× | 3.74 |
| Draw at HT / Bologna at FT | 18.2% | 16.8% | 15.7% | 1.07× | 5.95 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 15.6% | 16.8% | 16.7% | 1.00× | 5.96 |
| Sassuolo at HT / Sassuolo at FT | 12.7% | 12.7% | 19.4% | 0.65× | 7.89 |
| Draw at HT / Sassuolo at FT | 11.0% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 0.97× | 7.90 |
| Bologna at HT / Draw at FT | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.35× | 16.65 |
| Sassuolo at HT / Draw at FT | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 0.60× | 29.10 |
| Sassuolo at HT / Bologna at FT | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.34× | 29.18 |
| Bologna at HT / Sassuolo at FT | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.68× | 29.21 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to score last | 55.5% | 56.4% | 48.0% | 1.18× | 1.77 |
| Sassuolo to score last | 37.4% | 38.3% | 43.9% | 0.87× | 2.61 |
| No goal scored | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 0.89× | 13.55 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 92.9% | 92.7% | 91.7% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Bologna to lead by 1 at any time | 63.5% | 61.5% | 54.6% | 1.13× | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 45.9% | 44.0% | 42.7% | 1.03× | 2.28 |
| Sassuolo to lead by 1 at any time | 42.8% | 39.0% | 50.9% | 0.77× | 2.56 |
| Bologna to lead by 2 at any time | 31.7% | 29.4% | 23.0% | 1.28× | 3.40 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 16.6% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 1.02× | 6.71 |
| Sassuolo to lead by 2 at any time | 14.4% | 10.5% | 20.2% | 0.52× | 9.53 |
| Bologna to lead by 3 at any time | 12.7% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 1.24× | 9.56 |
| Sassuolo to lead by 3 at any time | 3.9% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 0.25× | 61.96 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna most corners | 60.2% | 58.7% | — | — | 1.70 |
| Sassuolo most corners | 28.8% | 32.1% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Corners level | 11.0% | 10.6% | — | — | 9.40 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.7% | 87.4% | 89.0% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 80.0% | 83.5% | 80.7% | 1.03× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 72.2% | 72.4% | 71.2% | 1.02× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 68.8% | 69.0% | 69.3% | 1.00× | 1.45 |
| 1-3 goals | 65.6% | 69.0% | 67.7% | 1.02× | 1.45 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.2% | 63.5% | 61.0% | 1.04× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 47.3% | 48.7% | 46.3% | 1.05× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.8% | 48.7% | 48.0% | 1.01× | 2.06 |
| 3-5 goals | 44.0% | 43.6% | 44.4% | 0.98× | 2.29 |
| 1-2 goals | 43.7% | 43.6% | 44.8% | 0.97× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 36.3% | 39.2% | 36.1% | 1.08× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 25.4% | 30.2% | 23.3% | 1.29× | 3.31 |
| 4-5 goals | 22.1% | 24.4% | 21.4% | 1.14× | 4.09 |
| 5-6 goals | 11.0% | 14.8% | 10.3% | 1.44× | 6.74 |
| 7+ goals | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 2.84× | 39.50 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna never behind | 50.1% | 62.4% | 49.1% | 1.27× | 1.60 |
| Sassuolo never behind | 29.3% | 30.1% | 45.4% | 0.66× | 3.32 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.7% | 50.8% | 51.7% | 0.98× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 50.3% | 49.2% | 48.3% | 1.02× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 56.2% | 57.8% | 56.8% | 1.02× | 1.73 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 43.8% | 42.2% | 43.2% | 0.98× | 2.37 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.1% | 52.0% | 51.7% | 1.01× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.9% | 48.0% | 48.3% | 0.99× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 94.8% | 92.3% | 97.2% | 0.95× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92.9% | 92.3% | 91.7% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 87.2% | 87.7% | 88.9% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | 72.5% | 71.9% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72.7% | 72.5% | 75.9% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 52.4% | 52.9% | 0.99× | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 47.6% | 47.1% | 1.01× | 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 27.5% | 24.1% | 1.14× | 3.64 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 27.5% | 28.1% | 0.98× | 3.64 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 1.11× | 8.11 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 0.93× | 12.95 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 5.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 2.75× | 12.96 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.1% | 97.3% | 99.1% | 0.98× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 94.4% | 92.5% | 96.9% | 0.95× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 85.0% | 86.7% | 87.2% | 0.99× | 1.15 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 65.4% | 67.3% | 62.6% | 1.07× | 1.49 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 65.1% | 67.3% | 68.7% | 0.98× | 1.49 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 34.9% | 32.7% | 31.3% | 1.04× | 3.06 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 34.6% | 32.7% | 37.4% | 0.88× | 3.06 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 15.0% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 1.04× | 7.53 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 5.6% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 2.46× | 13.28 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 3.02× | 36.39 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 91.1% | 92.8% | 91.8% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 71.9% | 71.1% | 70.7% | 1.01× | 1.41 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 64.9% | 63.8% | 65.8% | 0.97× | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 35.1% | 36.2% | 34.2% | 1.06× | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 28.1% | 28.9% | 29.3% | 0.99× | 3.46 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 0.89× | 13.80 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 79.7% | 80.0% | 77.8% | 1.03× | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 78.5% | 80.0% | 82.8% | 0.97× | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 52.7% | 53.1% | 57.1% | 0.93× | 1.88 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 47.3% | 46.9% | 42.9% | 1.09× | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 21.5% | 20.0% | 17.2% | 1.16× | 4.99 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 20.3% | 20.0% | 22.2% | 0.90× | 5.00 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo not to score in both halves | 84.0% | 84.3% | 78.7% | 1.07× | 1.19 |
| Bologna not to score in both halves | 71.2% | 74.2% | 76.1% | 0.97× | 1.35 |
| Bologna to score in both halves | 28.8% | 25.8% | 23.9% | 1.08× | 3.88 |
| Sassuolo to score in both halves | 16.0% | 15.7% | 21.3% | 0.74× | 6.39 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 51.9% | 54.0% | 48.2% | 1.12× | 1.85 |
| Only Bologna scores | 27.4% | 26.2% | 22.7% | 1.15× | 3.82 |
| Only Sassuolo scores | 13.5% | 10.9% | 21.0% | 0.52× | 9.13 |
| Neither team scores | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 0.87× | 13.94 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 24.9% | 22.7% | 25.0% | 0.91× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.9% | 22.6% | 23.1% | 0.98× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 18.8% | 17.5% | 19.9% | 0.88× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 14.4% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 0.92× | 8.29 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 0.90× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 0.92× | 13.14 |
| 6 or more goals | 5.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 2.71× | 13.14 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 47.3% | 44.8% | 42.9% | 1.04× | 2.23 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 32.4% | 33.8% | 35.1% | 0.96× | 2.96 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 20.3% | 23.4% | 22.2% | 1.05× | 4.28 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo not to win both halves | 95.1% | 97.1% | 91.3% | 1.06× | 1.03 |
| Bologna not to win both halves | 85.7% | 88.0% | 90.2% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| Bologna to win both halves | 14.3% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 1.22× | 8.33 |
| Sassuolo to win both halves | 4.9% | 2.9% | 8.7% | 0.33× | 34.71 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to win either half | 61.6% | 65.3% | 52.3% | 1.25× | 1.53 |
| Sassuolo to win neither half | 60.5% | 65.3% | 51.7% | 1.26× | 1.53 |
| Sassuolo to win either half | 39.5% | 34.7% | 48.3% | 0.72× | 2.88 |
| Bologna to win neither half | 38.4% | 34.7% | 47.7% | 0.73× | 2.88 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo not to win to nil | 86.5% | 88.2% | 79.0% | 1.12× | 1.13 |
| Bologna not to win to nil | 72.6% | 75.3% | 77.3% | 0.97× | 1.33 |
| Bologna to win to nil | 27.4% | 24.7% | 22.7% | 1.09× | 4.04 |
| Sassuolo to win to nil | 13.5% | 11.8% | 21.0% | 0.56× | 8.47 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.8% | 26.7% | 1.04× | 3.59 |
| Bologna by 1 | 23.7% | 24.1% | 22.2% | 1.09× | 4.14 |
| Sassuolo by 1 | 16.0% | 16.9% | 20.0% | 0.85× | 5.90 |
| Bologna by 2 | 15.0% | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.75× | 5.90 |
| Bologna by 3+ | 10.6% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 1.54× | 8.47 |
| Sassuolo by 2 | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 0.85× | 13.81 |
| Sassuolo by 3+ | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 0.46× | 36.98 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 3.05 xGSassuolo 1.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 5' |
 Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 8' |
Bologna |
Rahim Alhassane | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 12' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 12' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 15' |
Sassuolo |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 17' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Sassuolo |
Josh Doig | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 24' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Bologna |
Arthur Theate | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tommaso Pobega |
| 25' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 32' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 37' |
Sassuolo |
Kieron Bowie | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 41' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bologna |
Rahim Alhassane | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 48' |
Sassuolo |
Kieron Bowie | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vasilije Adzic |
| 49' |
Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.31 | From Corner | — | Goal | Juan Miranda |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kieron Bowie |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 56' |
Bologna |
Emil Holm | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Libra |
| 57' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 58' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Bologna |
Lewis Ferguson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
Sassuolo |
Simone Cinquegrano | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jay Idzes |
| 66' |
Bologna |
Arthur Theate | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 66' |
Bologna |
Torbjørn Heggem | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Bologna |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 77' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 83' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
| 84' |
Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 90' |
Bologna |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Bologna |
Marco Libra | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.04 | 0.94 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Emil Holm DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Lewis Ferguson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 1.38 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Federico Bernardeschi AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 1.22 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| Rahim Alhassane DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Tommaso Pobega DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Marco Libra Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.87 |
| Juan Miranda Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1.24 |
| Nikola Moro Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.39 | 1.70 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Kieron Bowie FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.43 |
| Simone Cinquegrano DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Fedde Leysen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Doig DL | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.61 | 0.99 |
| Vasilije Adzic MC | 63 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.88 |
| Luca Lipani MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Domenico Berardi Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Cristian Volpato FWR | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Sulemana Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Rafael Obrador Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Ghion Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |