Bologna v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 29 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 8
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 4
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.33 – -0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bologna win
51.1%
Draw
28.8%
Torino win
20.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–0.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–0.88 | 1-0 12% | 50% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 0.33 xGTorino 0.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Bologna |
Charalampos Lykogiannis | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 23' |
 Torino |
Che Adams | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 25' |
Bologna |
Charalampos Lykogiannis | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 25' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charalampos Lykogiannis |
| 44' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Martin Vitík | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 49' |
Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ivan Ilic |
| 51' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 52' |
Bologna |
Nadir Zortea | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 53' |
Bologna |
Charalampos Lykogiannis | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 64' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ivan Ilic |
| 69' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 71' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 76' |
Bologna |
Nadir Zortea | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 77' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Bologna |
Benjamín Domínguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesare Casadei MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Valentino Lazaro DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| Marcus Pedersen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Cyril Ngonge FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ivan Ilic MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Che Adams FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Adrien Tameze DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Giovanni Simeone Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ardian Ismajli Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nikola Vlasic Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Kristjan Asllani Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charalampos Lykogiannis DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Nadir Zortea DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Martin Vitík DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Moro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Federico Bernardeschi AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Lewis Ferguson DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Riccardo Orsolini Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Remo Freuler Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |