Bologna v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 14
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.42
Goals − xG
+0.30 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyBologna win
53.6%
model 53.1%
Draw
23.2%
model 24.4%
Torino win
23.2%
model 22.4%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 11.8%
- 1-1 11.6%
- 2-0 9.8%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 0-0 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 49.2% | Under 2.5 | 50.8% |
| BTTS yes | 50.7% | BTTS no | 49.3% |
| Bologna 1+ | 80.9% | Bologna 2+ | 49.4% |
| Torino 1+ | 62.7% | Torino 2+ | 25.9% |
Expected goals 1.66 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
100/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
Bologna (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 40%
52.2% fair odds 1.92
strong signal · 1133 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Bologna not to win both halves
Win both halves · usually 90%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 589 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Bologna carry the stronger rating, 1526 Elo against 1468.
- Bologna have created 1.23 xG a match over their last five while Torino have allowed 1.81.
- At home Bologna average 1.57 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Bologna have an estimated 53.6% win probability, against 23.2% for the draw and 23.2% for Torino. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.66 for Bologna and 0.98 for Torino.
Why Bologna
Bologna carry the stronger rating, 1526 Elo against 1468. Bologna have created 1.23 xG a match over their last five while Torino have allowed 1.81. At home Bologna average 1.57 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Torino can win
Torino have created 1.29 xG a match over their last five while Bologna have allowed 1.25. Away from home Torino average 0.91 xG a match.
Key players
Bologna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Roberto Piccoli (0.34), Santiago Castro (0.30), Jonathan Rowe (0.27). Torino's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Giovanni Simeone (0.35), Nikola Vlasic (0.33), Che Adams (0.30).
Availability
2 of Bologna's top three contributors did not start their last match. Bologna changed goalkeeper for their last match. 27% of Bologna's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Torino's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Torino's last eleven are new to the club this window.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Bologna: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.57 xG a match from set pieces. Torino: 50% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 16.6 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-19 13:53 · team_stats 2026-09-19 06:04 · availability 2026-09-19 15:09 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Bologna are the model's most likely outcome at 53.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.8%. Confidence 100/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bologna have scored 13 from 14.7 expected and conceded 15 from 14.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLLDLDWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.7 xG
conceded 15
from 14.1 xG
Torino are finishing above their chances — 3.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LDLLWLDWWW last 10
scored 16
from 12.5 xG
conceded 15
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.66–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.66–0.97 | 1-0 12% | 49% | 50% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–0.96 | 1-0 12% | 49% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to win | 51.5% | 51.6% | 39.5% | 1.30× | 1.94 |
| Draw | 24.7% | 24.5% | 26.7% | 0.92× | 4.09 |
| Torino to win | 23.7% | 24.5% | 33.9% | 0.72× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna & not both score | 29.0% | 25.1% | 22.4% | 1.12× | 3.98 |
| Bologna & both teams score | 22.5% | 21.8% | 17.2% | 1.27× | 4.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 17.6% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 0.96× | 5.57 |
| Torino & not both score | 12.6% | 13.3% | 20.7% | 0.64× | 7.53 |
| Torino & both teams score | 11.1% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.00× | 7.53 |
| Draw & not both score | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 1.03× | 12.00 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna & over 1.5 | 40.0% | 34.8% | 29.2% | 1.19× | 2.87 |
| Bologna & under 3.5 | 35.6% | 34.8% | 29.3% | 1.19× | 2.87 |
| Bologna & over 2.5 | 30.6% | 30.8% | 22.7% | 1.36× | 3.25 |
| Bologna & under 2.5 | 21.0% | 21.6% | 17.0% | 1.27× | 4.63 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 18.9% | 18.0% | 19.8% | 0.91× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 18.9% | 18.0% | 19.8% | 0.91× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 17.6% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 0.96× | 5.56 |
| Torino & under 3.5 | 18.2% | 18.0% | 26.6% | 0.68× | 5.56 |
| Torino & over 1.5 | 16.5% | 18.0% | 24.7% | 0.73× | 5.56 |
| Bologna & over 3.5 | 15.9% | 18.0% | 10.3% | 1.74× | 5.56 |
| Torino & over 2.5 | 12.8% | 12.9% | 18.1% | 0.71× | 7.77 |
| Bologna & under 1.5 | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 1.23× | 7.77 |
| Torino & under 2.5 | 10.9% | 12.9% | 16.0% | 0.81× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 0.98× | 12.62 |
| Torino & under 1.5 | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 0.85× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 1.13× | 12.62 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 1.13× | 12.62 |
| Torino & over 3.5 | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 1.06× | 12.62 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (1UP) | 65.3% | 69.6% | 54.9% | 1.27× | 1.44 |
| Torino (1UP) | 40.9% | 38.8% | 51.1% | 0.76× | 2.58 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (2UP) | 51.5% | 55.3% | 41.3% | 1.34× | 1.81 |
| Torino (2UP) | 23.7% | 23.5% | 36.5% | 0.64× | 4.25 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to win 2nd half | 40.2% | 40.8% | 34.8% | 1.17× | 2.45 |
| 2nd half drawn | 33.6% | 34.3% | 35.5% | 0.96× | 2.92 |
| Torino to win 2nd half | 26.3% | 26.6% | 29.8% | 0.89× | 3.77 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino under 1.5 in 2nd half | 83.4% | 84.3% | 85.0% | 0.99× | 1.19 |
| Torino over 0.5 in 2nd half | 51.7% | 53.2% | 49.9% | 1.07× | 1.88 |
| Torino under 0.5 in 2nd half | 48.3% | 46.8% | 50.1% | 0.93× | 2.14 |
| Torino over 1.5 in 2nd half | 16.6% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 1.05× | 6.35 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna under 1.5 in 2nd half | 74.4% | 73.6% | 81.3% | 0.91× | 1.36 |
| Bologna over 0.5 in 2nd half | 62.4% | 63.2% | 53.7% | 1.18× | 1.58 |
| Bologna under 0.5 in 2nd half | 37.6% | 36.8% | 46.3% | 0.79× | 2.72 |
| Bologna over 1.5 in 2nd half | 25.6% | 26.4% | 18.7% | 1.41× | 3.79 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino (+2.5) | 88.4% | 88.5% | 92.5% | 0.96× | 1.13 |
| Bologna (+0.5) | 76.3% | 78.5% | 66.1% | 1.19× | 1.27 |
| Torino (+1.5) | 72.6% | 73.7% | 83.0% | 0.89× | 1.36 |
| Bologna (-0.5) | 51.5% | 52.5% | 39.5% | 1.33× | 1.91 |
| Torino (+0.5) | 48.5% | 47.5% | 60.5% | 0.79× | 2.11 |
| Bologna (-1.5) | 27.4% | 26.3% | 17.0% | 1.55× | 3.80 |
| Torino (-0.5) | 23.7% | 21.5% | 33.9% | 0.63× | 4.65 |
| Bologna (-2.5) | 11.6% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 1.54× | 8.70 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino to concede | 80.3% | 81.4% | 71.3% | 1.14× | 1.23 |
| Torino clean sheet | 19.7% | 18.6% | 28.7% | 0.65× | 5.37 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino clean sheet in 1st half | 52.3% | 50.3% | 58.6% | 0.86× | 1.99 |
| Torino to concede in 1st half | 47.7% | 49.7% | 41.4% | 1.20× | 2.01 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino to concede in 2nd half | 62.4% | 61.2% | 53.7% | 1.14× | 1.64 |
| Torino clean sheet in 2nd half | 37.6% | 38.8% | 46.3% | 0.84× | 2.58 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino under 6.5 corners | 91.1% | 89.9% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Torino under 5.5 corners | 84.1% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Torino under 4.5 corners | 73.3% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Torino over 2.5 corners | 60.4% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Torino under 3.5 corners | 58.2% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Torino over 3.5 corners | 41.8% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Torino under 2.5 corners | 39.6% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Torino over 4.5 corners | 26.7% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.52 |
| Torino over 5.5 corners | 15.9% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
| Torino over 6.5 corners | 9.0% | 10.1% | — | — | 9.92 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino under 3.5 goals | 98.0% | 97.5% | 97.0% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Torino under 2.5 goals | 91.6% | 92.3% | 88.3% | 1.05× | 1.08 |
| Torino under 1.5 goals | 72.9% | 71.9% | 65.0% | 1.11× | 1.39 |
| Torino over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | 63.2% | 69.6% | 0.91× | 1.58 |
| Torino under 0.5 goals | 36.2% | 36.8% | 30.4% | 1.21× | 2.72 |
| Torino over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 28.1% | 35.0% | 0.80× | 3.55 |
| Torino over 2.5 goals | 8.4% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 0.66× | 12.99 |
| Torino over 3.5 goals | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.84× | 39.91 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino under 1.5 in 1st half | 96.5% | 95.8% | 90.0% | 1.06× | 1.04 |
| Torino under 0.5 in 1st half | 74.8% | 68.8% | 58.7% | 1.17× | 1.45 |
| Torino over 0.5 in 1st half | 25.2% | 31.2% | 41.3% | 0.76× | 3.21 |
| Torino over 1.5 in 1st half | 3.5% | 4.2% | 10.0% | 0.42× | 23.80 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino scores equally in both | 44.2% | 44.2% | 43.6% | 1.01× | 2.26 |
| Torino scores more in 2nd half | 42.4% | 44.1% | 32.7% | 1.35× | 2.27 |
| Torino scores more in 1st half | 13.4% | 11.7% | 23.8% | 0.49× | 8.58 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (away no bet) | 67.6% | 66.4% | 59.7% | 1.11× | 1.51 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 32.4% | 33.6% | 40.3% | 0.83× | 2.98 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino even goals | 56.5% | 56.9% | 55.9% | 1.02× | 1.76 |
| Torino odd goals | 43.5% | 43.1% | 44.1% | 0.98× | 2.32 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 87.7% | 87.8% | 87.0% | 1.01× | 1.14 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 12.3% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 0.94× | 8.20 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 62.7% | 58.0% | 59.7% | 0.97× | 1.72 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 42.0% | 40.3% | 1.04× | 2.38 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 55.0% | 51.1% | 52.9% | 0.97× | 1.96 |
| Bologna to score 2+ in a row | 40.8% | 38.1% | 31.2% | 1.22× | 2.63 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 20.0% | 16.4% | 17.3% | 0.95× | 6.09 |
| Torino to score 2+ in a row | 19.5% | 16.4% | 27.8% | 0.59× | 6.09 |
| Bologna to score 3+ in a row | 15.7% | 16.3% | 9.7% | 1.68× | 6.12 |
| Torino to score 3+ in a row | 4.5% | 2.6% | 7.7% | 0.34× | 38.46 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna corners (+3.5) | 93.7% | 89.6% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Bologna corners (+2.5) | 89.4% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Bologna corners (+1.5) | 83.1% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Torino corners (+3.5) | 68.6% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Torino corners (+2.5) | 58.3% | 57.2% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Bologna corners (-1.5) | 52.9% | 52.4% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Torino corners (+1.5) | 47.1% | 47.6% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Bologna corners (-2.5) | 41.7% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Bologna corners (-3.5) | 31.4% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Torino corners (-1.5) | 17.0% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Torino corners (-2.5) | 10.6% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.44 |
| Torino corners (-3.5) | 6.3% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.58 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 52.5% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
| 9-11 corners | 26.7% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 20.8% | 25.5% | — | — | 3.92 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 85.2% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.2% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.8% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 62.8% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 58.5% | 57.9% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 52.5% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 47.5% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 41.5% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 37.2% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 28.2% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 20.8% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.28 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 14.8% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.90 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 1.09× | 8.73 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 0.97× | 8.73 |
| 2-0 | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 1.12× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 0.80× | 13.50 |
| 0-0 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 0.91× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 0.79× | 13.50 |
| 3-0 | 5.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 2.20× | 13.50 |
| 3-1 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 2.48× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 0.97× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 4.9% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 0.28× | 58.33 |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.57× | 58.34 |
| 2-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 6.87× | 58.35 |
| 3-2 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.55× | 58.34 |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.96× | 58.35 |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 6.87× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.06× | 58.34 |
| 4-1 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.53× | 58.34 |
| 4-2 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.75× | 58.35 |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 6.87× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 6.87× | 58.35 |
| Any other score | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 0.60× | 58.34 |
| 0-2 | 3.7% | 1.7% | 6.7% | 0.25× | 58.33 |
| 0-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.53× | 58.35 |
| 0-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.72× | 58.35 |
| 1-3 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.92× | 58.34 |
| 1-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.29× | 58.35 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (2nd half DNB) | 60.5% | 61.6% | 53.9% | 1.14× | 1.62 |
| Torino (2nd half DNB) | 39.5% | 38.4% | 46.1% | 0.83× | 2.60 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna leading at HT (DNB) | 73.0% | 72.4% | 50.1% | 1.44× | 1.38 |
| Torino leading at HT (DNB) | 27.0% | 27.6% | 49.9% | 0.55× | 3.62 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna or draw (1X) | 76.3% | 75.5% | 66.1% | 1.14× | 1.32 |
| Bologna or Torino (12) | 75.3% | 75.5% | 73.3% | 1.03× | 1.32 |
| Torino or draw (X2) | 48.5% | 48.4% | 60.5% | 0.80× | 2.07 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna or draw at HT | 85.6% | 87.6% | 72.6% | 1.21× | 1.14 |
| Torino or draw at HT | 61.2% | 62.1% | 72.4% | 0.86× | 1.61 |
| Bologna or Torino at HT | 53.1% | 47.6% | 54.9% | 0.87× | 2.10 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna or draw (1UP) | 76.3% | 84.0% | 71.4% | 1.18× | 1.19 |
| Torino or draw (1UP) | 48.5% | 52.9% | 66.2% | 0.80× | 1.89 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna or draw in 2nd half | 73.7% | 73.4% | 70.2% | 1.05× | 1.36 |
| Bologna or Torino in 2nd half | 66.4% | 65.7% | 64.5% | 1.02× | 1.52 |
| Torino or draw in 2nd half | 59.9% | 59.2% | 65.2% | 0.91× | 1.69 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 64.7% | 61.8% | 64.2% | 0.96× | 1.62 |
| Neither half drawn | 35.3% | 38.2% | 35.8% | 1.07× | 2.62 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (DNB) | 68.5% | 67.3% | 53.8% | 1.25× | 1.49 |
| Torino (DNB) | 31.5% | 32.7% | 46.2% | 0.71× | 3.06 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to score first | 57.1% | 62.0% | 47.9% | 1.30× | 1.61 |
| Torino to score first | 35.8% | 32.6% | 44.1% | 0.74× | 3.07 |
| No goal scored | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 0.93× | 13.24 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 51.3% | 49.0% | 1.05× | 1.95 |
| Not both teams to score | 48.7% | 48.7% | 51.0% | 0.96× | 2.05 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 39.5% | 38.4% | 37.3% | 1.03× | 2.60 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 39.0% | 38.4% | 40.8% | 0.94× | 2.60 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.8% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 1.04× | 8.10 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.7% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 0.80× | 12.03 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 86.9% | 85.6% | 86.4% | 0.99× | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 13.1% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 1.06× | 6.96 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 67.8% | 67.7% | 74.6% | 0.91× | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 32.2% | 32.3% | 25.4% | 1.27× | 3.09 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 59.6% | 59.7% | 62.8% | 0.95× | 1.67 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 28.4% | 26.7% | 20.4% | 1.30× | 3.75 |
| Both score 1st half only | 8.1% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 0.59× | 14.37 |
| Both score in both halves | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 0.97× | 20.24 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 88.0% | 86.5% | 83.2% | 1.04× | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 12.0% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 0.80× | 7.40 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 50.2% | 53.1% | 47.9% | 1.11× | 1.88 |
| A goal in each half | 49.8% | 46.9% | 52.1% | 0.90× | 2.13 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.7% | 47.2% | 47.9% | 0.99× | 2.12 |
| 0-1 goals | 25.9% | 26.6% | 27.7% | 0.96× | 3.76 |
| 4-6 goals | 25.5% | 26.6% | 23.7% | 1.12× | 3.76 |
| 7+ goals | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.82× | 55.00 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 35.9% | 34.7% | 1.04× | 2.79 |
| Torino to score exactly 0 | 36.2% | 35.9% | 30.4% | 1.18× | 2.79 |
| Torino to score exactly 2 | 18.7% | 19.6% | 23.4% | 0.84× | 5.11 |
| Torino to score 3+ | 8.4% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 0.73× | 11.67 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to score exactly 1 | 32.0% | 32.6% | 32.3% | 1.01× | 3.07 |
| Bologna to score exactly 2 | 26.0% | 26.5% | 24.7% | 1.07× | 3.77 |
| Bologna to score 3+ | 22.3% | 23.3% | 14.6% | 1.60× | 4.29 |
| Bologna to score exactly 0 | 19.7% | 18.8% | 28.7% | 0.66× | 5.31 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 46.9% | 52.4% | 45.1% | 1.16× | 1.91 |
| Bologna leading at HT | 38.8% | 38.0% | 27.6% | 1.38× | 2.64 |
| Torino leading at HT | 14.4% | 12.4% | 27.4% | 0.45× | 8.05 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna -1: 2 | 48.5% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Bologna -1: 1 | 27.4% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Bologna -1: X | 24.2% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino (0:1) | 48.5% | 46.1% | 60.5% | 0.76× | 2.17 |
| Bologna (0:1) | 27.4% | 27.1% | 17.0% | 1.60× | 3.70 |
| Draw (0:1) | 24.2% | 24.2% | 22.7% | 1.07× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino (0:2) | 72.6% | 75.7% | 83.0% | 0.91× | 1.32 |
| Draw (0:2) | 15.8% | 15.2% | 9.6% | 1.58× | 6.57 |
| Bologna (0:2) | 11.6% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 1.47× | 9.12 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino (0:3) | 88.4% | 90.7% | 92.5% | 0.98× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.29× | 17.29 |
| Bologna (0:3) | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 0.76× | 42.17 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino (0:4) | 96.0% | 98.1% | 96.9% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 0.54× | 82.59 |
| Bologna (0:4) | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.21× | 82.79 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (1:0) | 76.3% | 78.5% | 66.1% | 1.19× | 1.27 |
| Draw (1:0) | 15.1% | 17.0% | 19.8% | 0.86× | 5.87 |
| Torino (1:0) | 8.6% | 6.9% | 14.2% | 0.49× | 14.44 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna (2:0) | 91.4% | 93.9% | 85.8% | 1.10× | 1.06 |
| Draw (2:0) | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 0.74× | 15.63 |
| Torino (2:0) | 2.4% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 0.40× | 43.49 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 55.5% | 56.0% | 46.4% | 1.21× | 1.79 |
| Halves equal | 23.9% | 24.3% | 27.1% | 0.90× | 4.11 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 20.6% | 24.3% | 26.7% | 0.91× | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to concede | 63.9% | 63.7% | 69.6% | 0.92× | 1.57 |
| Bologna clean sheet | 36.2% | 36.3% | 30.4% | 1.19× | 2.75 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna clean sheet in 1st half | 74.8% | 68.7% | 58.7% | 1.17× | 1.46 |
| Bologna to concede in 1st half | 25.2% | 31.3% | 41.3% | 0.76× | 3.20 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to concede in 2nd half | 51.7% | 53.2% | 49.9% | 1.07× | 1.88 |
| Bologna clean sheet in 2nd half | 48.3% | 46.8% | 50.1% | 0.93× | 2.14 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna over 2.5 corners | 82.5% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Bologna under 6.5 corners | 69.9% | 66.8% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Bologna over 3.5 corners | 69.4% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Bologna under 5.5 corners | 58.3% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Bologna over 4.5 corners | 55.2% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Bologna under 4.5 corners | 44.8% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Bologna over 5.5 corners | 41.7% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
| Bologna under 3.5 corners | 30.6% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Bologna over 6.5 corners | 30.1% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Bologna under 2.5 corners | 17.5% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna under 3.5 goals | 91.8% | 92.2% | 95.4% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Bologna over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | 82.2% | 71.3% | 1.15× | 1.22 |
| Bologna under 2.5 goals | 77.7% | 77.7% | 85.4% | 0.91× | 1.29 |
| Bologna under 1.5 goals | 51.7% | 53.2% | 60.8% | 0.87× | 1.88 |
| Bologna over 1.5 goals | 48.3% | 46.8% | 39.2% | 1.20× | 2.14 |
| Bologna over 2.5 goals | 22.3% | 22.3% | 14.6% | 1.53× | 4.49 |
| Bologna under 0.5 goals | 19.7% | 17.8% | 28.7% | 0.62× | 5.61 |
| Bologna over 3.5 goals | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 1.69× | 12.85 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna under 1.5 in 1st half | 86.2% | 89.9% | 89.9% | 1.00× | 1.11 |
| Bologna under 0.5 in 1st half | 52.3% | 50.1% | 58.6% | 0.86× | 1.99 |
| Bologna over 0.5 in 1st half | 47.7% | 49.9% | 41.4% | 1.20× | 2.01 |
| Bologna over 1.5 in 1st half | 13.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 1.00× | 9.91 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna scores more in 2nd half | 42.2% | 42.3% | 36.5% | 1.16× | 2.36 |
| Bologna scores equally in both | 34.3% | 33.1% | 42.0% | 0.79× | 3.02 |
| Bologna scores more in 1st half | 23.5% | 21.4% | 21.6% | 0.99× | 4.67 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (home no bet) | 51.1% | 51.4% | 44.0% | 1.17× | 1.95 |
| Torino (home no bet) | 48.9% | 48.6% | 56.0% | 0.87× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna even goals | 51.9% | 50.7% | 56.4% | 0.90× | 1.97 |
| Bologna odd goals | 48.1% | 49.3% | 43.6% | 1.13× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 39.2% | 38.1% | 34.2% | 1.12× | 2.62 |
| HT 1-0 | 25.4% | 28.8% | 18.2% | 1.58× | 3.47 |
| HT 0-1 | 11.3% | 10.8% | 18.5% | 0.58× | 9.28 |
| HT 2-0 | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 1.27× | 14.07 |
| HT 1-1 | 7.4% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 0.68× | 14.08 |
| Any other HT score | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 0.75× | 42.70 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.04× | 42.75 |
| HT 0-2 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 0.44× | 42.80 |
| HT 1-2 | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.89× | 42.84 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 3.12× | 42.89 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna at HT / Bologna at FT | 30.8% | 32.7% | 21.3% | 1.54× | 3.05 |
| Draw at HT / Bologna at FT | 18.8% | 16.8% | 16.0% | 1.05× | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 15.7% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 1.02× | 5.98 |
| Draw at HT / Torino at FT | 12.3% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 0.98× | 7.90 |
| Torino at HT / Torino at FT | 9.1% | 6.1% | 19.2% | 0.32× | 16.33 |
| Bologna at HT / Draw at FT | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 1.36× | 16.43 |
| Torino at HT / Draw at FT | 3.3% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 0.57× | 29.08 |
| Bologna at HT / Torino at FT | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.72× | 29.11 |
| Torino at HT / Bologna at FT | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.38× | 29.13 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to score last | 57.1% | 56.5% | 48.3% | 1.17× | 1.77 |
| Torino to score last | 35.8% | 38.3% | 43.8% | 0.88× | 2.61 |
| No goal scored | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 0.93× | 13.24 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 92.9% | 92.6% | 91.9% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Bologna to lead by 1 at any time | 65.3% | 69.2% | 54.9% | 1.26× | 1.45 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 46.5% | 44.1% | 42.8% | 1.03× | 2.27 |
| Torino to lead by 1 at any time | 40.9% | 39.0% | 51.1% | 0.76× | 2.56 |
| Bologna to lead by 2 at any time | 33.5% | 29.6% | 23.1% | 1.28× | 3.38 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 17.2% | 15.1% | 14.6% | 1.03× | 6.64 |
| Bologna to lead by 3 at any time | 13.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 1.26× | 9.52 |
| Torino to lead by 2 at any time | 13.1% | 10.5% | 20.2% | 0.52× | 9.53 |
| Torino to lead by 3 at any time | 3.4% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 0.25× | 61.91 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna most corners | 64.3% | 60.6% | — | — | 1.65 |
| Torino most corners | 25.4% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Corners level | 10.3% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.7% | 87.4% | 89.0% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 80.0% | 83.4% | 80.4% | 1.04× | 1.20 |
| 2-6 goals | 72.2% | 72.4% | 71.4% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 68.9% | 68.8% | 69.5% | 0.99× | 1.45 |
| 1-3 goals | 65.6% | 68.8% | 67.5% | 1.02× | 1.45 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.2% | 63.4% | 60.8% | 1.04× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 47.4% | 48.6% | 46.6% | 1.04× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.7% | 48.5% | 47.9% | 1.01× | 2.06 |
| 3-5 goals | 44.0% | 43.5% | 44.6% | 0.98× | 2.30 |
| 1-2 goals | 43.7% | 43.5% | 44.5% | 0.98× | 2.30 |
| 3-4 goals | 36.4% | 39.2% | 36.0% | 1.09× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 25.5% | 30.3% | 23.7% | 1.28× | 3.30 |
| 4-5 goals | 22.1% | 24.5% | 21.7% | 1.13× | 4.08 |
| 5-6 goals | 11.0% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 1.38× | 6.75 |
| 7+ goals | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 2.55× | 39.28 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna never behind | 52.0% | 62.2% | 48.9% | 1.27× | 1.61 |
| Torino never behind | 27.6% | 30.1% | 45.1% | 0.67× | 3.32 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.7% | 50.9% | 51.7% | 0.98× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.3% | 49.1% | 48.3% | 1.02× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 57.7% | 57.2% | 56.9% | 1.01× | 1.75 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 42.3% | 42.8% | 43.1% | 0.99× | 2.34 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.7% | 52.0% | 51.1% | 1.02× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.3% | 48.0% | 48.9% | 0.98× | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 94.8% | 92.2% | 97.0% | 0.95× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92.9% | 92.2% | 91.9% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 87.1% | 87.6% | 88.4% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | 72.4% | 72.3% | 1.00× | 1.38 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72.7% | 72.4% | 75.4% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 52.5% | 52.5% | 1.00× | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 47.5% | 47.5% | 1.00× | 2.11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 27.6% | 24.6% | 1.12× | 3.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 27.6% | 27.7% | 1.00× | 3.63 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 1.07× | 8.08 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 0.96× | 12.89 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 5.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 2.59× | 12.90 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.1% | 97.2% | 99.0% | 0.98× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 94.4% | 92.4% | 96.7% | 0.96× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 85.0% | 81.1% | 86.7% | 0.94× | 1.23 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 65.5% | 67.4% | 63.2% | 1.07× | 1.48 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 65.0% | 67.4% | 68.1% | 0.99× | 1.48 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 35.0% | 32.6% | 31.9% | 1.02× | 3.07 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 34.5% | 32.6% | 36.8% | 0.88× | 3.07 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 15.0% | 18.9% | 13.3% | 1.42× | 5.29 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 5.6% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 2.32× | 13.16 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 2.74× | 35.82 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 93.1% | 92.7% | 91.6% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 75.9% | 79.0% | 70.6% | 1.12× | 1.27 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 60.8% | 63.6% | 65.8% | 0.97× | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 39.2% | 36.4% | 34.2% | 1.06× | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 24.1% | 21.0% | 29.4% | 0.71× | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 0.88× | 13.64 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 81.8% | 82.8% | 78.2% | 1.06× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 75.6% | 79.7% | 82.2% | 0.97× | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 50.8% | 53.0% | 43.3% | 1.23× | 1.89 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 49.2% | 47.0% | 56.7% | 0.83× | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 24.4% | 20.3% | 17.8% | 1.14× | 4.92 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 18.2% | 17.2% | 21.8% | 0.79× | 5.81 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino not to score in both halves | 87.0% | 85.7% | 78.4% | 1.09× | 1.17 |
| Bologna not to score in both halves | 70.3% | 74.1% | 76.2% | 0.97× | 1.35 |
| Bologna to score in both halves | 29.7% | 25.9% | 23.8% | 1.09× | 3.86 |
| Torino to score in both halves | 13.0% | 14.3% | 21.6% | 0.66× | 7.01 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 53.8% | 49.0% | 1.10× | 1.86 |
| Only Bologna scores | 29.0% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 1.16× | 3.84 |
| Only Torino scores | 12.6% | 11.0% | 20.7% | 0.53× | 9.07 |
| Neither team scores | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 0.88× | 14.03 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 24.9% | 22.6% | 24.9% | 0.91× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.9% | 22.6% | 23.1% | 0.98× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 18.8% | 17.5% | 19.7% | 0.89× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 14.5% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 0.93× | 8.25 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 0.87× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 0.94× | 13.13 |
| 6 or more goals | 5.2% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 2.54× | 13.14 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No goals in 1st half | 39.2% | 36.9% | 34.2% | 1.08× | 2.71 |
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.7% | 36.9% | 36.5% | 1.01× | 2.71 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 17.2% | 15.3% | 21.2% | 0.72× | 6.54 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 0.88× | 13.64 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 50.8% | 51.3% | 43.3% | 1.19× | 1.95 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 31.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | 0.95× | 3.01 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 18.2% | 17.2% | 21.8% | 0.79× | 5.81 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino not to win both halves | 96.2% | 97.2% | 91.3% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| Bologna not to win both halves | 84.4% | 84.2% | 90.4% | 0.93× | 1.19 |
| Bologna to win both halves | 15.6% | 15.8% | 9.6% | 1.65× | 6.31 |
| Torino to win both halves | 3.8% | 2.8% | 8.7% | 0.32× | 36.23 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna to win either half | 63.4% | 64.9% | 52.7% | 1.23× | 1.54 |
| Torino to win neither half | 63.1% | 64.8% | 51.5% | 1.26× | 1.54 |
| Torino to win either half | 36.9% | 35.2% | 48.5% | 0.72× | 2.85 |
| Bologna to win neither half | 36.6% | 35.1% | 47.3% | 0.74× | 2.85 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino not to win to nil | 87.4% | 88.1% | 79.3% | 1.11× | 1.14 |
| Bologna not to win to nil | 71.0% | 75.3% | 77.6% | 0.97× | 1.33 |
| Bologna to win to nil | 29.0% | 24.7% | 22.4% | 1.10× | 4.05 |
| Torino to win to nil | 12.6% | 11.9% | 20.7% | 0.57× | 8.42 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 24.7% | 24.1% | 26.7% | 0.90× | 4.15 |
| Bologna by 1 | 24.2% | 24.1% | 22.7% | 1.06× | 4.15 |
| Bologna by 2 | 15.8% | 17.0% | 9.6% | 1.77× | 5.89 |
| Torino by 1 | 15.1% | 17.0% | 19.8% | 0.86× | 5.89 |
| Bologna by 3+ | 11.6% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 1.57× | 8.49 |
| Torino by 2 | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 0.84× | 13.88 |
| Torino by 3+ | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 0.47× | 36.72 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bologna 0.70 xGTorino 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bologna attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 13' |
 Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Torino |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 33' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Bologna |
Arthur Theate | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 40' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 42' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Torino |
Daniel Bragança | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kian Fitz-Jim |
| 46' |
Torino |
Daniel Bragança | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 47' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kian Fitz-Jim |
| 49' |
Torino |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 56' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 61' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Saúl Coco |
| 62' |
Bologna |
Juan Miranda | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 66' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 66' |
Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 74' |
Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Torino |
Sandro Kulenovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rolando Mandragora |
| 80' |
Torino |
Sandro Kulenovic | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 89' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 91' |
Bologna |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 93' |
Torino |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 94' |
Torino |
Sandro Kulenovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafik Belghali |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Alessio Cacciamani DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Bragança MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nikola Vlasic FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kian Fitz-Jim MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Niccolò Fortini DMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Patterson Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sandro Kulenovic Sub | 33 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| Rafik Belghali Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Juan Miranda DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lewis Ferguson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadir Zortea DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tommaso Pobega MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Federico Bernardeschi FWR | 78 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Eivind Helland DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi FWL | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Odgaard Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Riccardo Orsolini Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nikola Moro Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Emil Holm Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |