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Bologna v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 August 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–1
3.31 – 0.94 xG
Shots
22 – 3
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 3
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.31
Set-piece xG
1.00 – 0.94
Goals − xG
-2.62 – +0.06
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.03.04.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Riccardo Orsolini 56' — goalLautaro Giannetti 67' — goal
Bologna 3.62 xGUdinese 0.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Riccardo Orsolini 7' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 10' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nikola Moro 14' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Martín Payero 22' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Dan Ndoye 30' — Missed Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 40' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 44' — Missed Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 46' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 46' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Giovanni Fabbian 47' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 47' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Santiago Castro 48' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Sam Beukema 50' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 50' — Saved Shot (0.16 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 52' — Blocked Shot (0.56 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 52' — Saved Shot (0.55 xG, Open Play)Nikola Moro 54' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Riccardo Orsolini 56' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Florian Thauvin 67' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Lautaro Giannetti 67' — Goal (0.07 xG, From Corner)Santiago Castro 70' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Fabbian 84' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Nicolò Cambiaghi 89' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Michel Aebischer 90' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Michel Aebischer 93' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)
Bologna attacking right Udinese attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Giovanni Fabbian
10' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nikola Moro
14' Bologna Nikola Moro 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dan Ndoye
22' Udinese Martín Payero 0.11 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
30' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.43 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Riccardo Orsolini
40' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Stefan Posch
44' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Remo Freuler
46' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
46' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Stefan Posch
47' Bologna Giovanni Fabbian 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Sam Beukema
47' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Riccardo Orsolini
48' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
50' Bologna Sam Beukema 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Remo Freuler
50' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.16 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sam Beukema
52' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.56 Open Play Blocked Shot
52' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.55 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Santiago Castro
54' Bologna Nikola Moro 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
56' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.76 Left Foot Goal
67' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.76 Left Foot Saved Shot
67' Udinese Lautaro Giannetti 0.07 From Corner Goal Brenner
70' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
84' Bologna Giovanni Fabbian 0.05 Set Piece Missed Shot Juan Miranda
89' Bologna Nicolò Cambiaghi 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
90' Bologna Michel Aebischer 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Thijs Dallinga
93' Bologna Michel Aebischer 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot

Players

Bologna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dan Ndoye AML 90 0 0 4 1 1.29 0.10 1.97
Giovanni Fabbian AMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.17 0.09 0.21
Sam Beukema DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.28 0.85
Stefan Posch DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.85
Lukasz Skorupski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.55
Martin Erlic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Remo Freuler DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.28 0.93
Santiago Castro FW 88 0 0 5 1 0.38 0.55 1.43
Charalampos Lykogiannis DL 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.61
Riccardo Orsolini AMR 80 1 0 5 2 1.49 0.48 1.25
Nikola Moro DMC 80 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.06 0.42
Michel Aebischer Sub 10 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Nicolò Cambiaghi Sub 10 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Thijs Dallinga Sub 2 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.00
Juan Miranda Sub 2 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
Jens Odgaard Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Martín Payero MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.00
Lautaro Giannetti DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Jaka Bijol DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maduka Okoye GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lorenzo Lucca FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kingsley Ehizibue MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nehuén Pérez DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hassane Kamara ML 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brenner FW 86 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.00
Florian Thauvin AMC 80 0 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.00
Sandi Lovric MC 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jesper Karlström Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Keinan Davis Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jordan Zemura Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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