Bolton Wanderers v Cardiff City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Bolton Wanderers

1–0

11:30 UTC

Cardiff City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 24h before kick-off

Bolton Wanderers win

41.5%

model 40.4%

Draw

27.1%

model 26.9%

Cardiff City win

31.5%

model 32.7%

412731

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (6,406 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.5%
2-1 8.9%
1-2 7.9%
1-0 6.5%
2-2 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.0%	Under 2.5	42.0%
BTTS yes	61.8%	BTTS no	38.2%
Bolton Wanderers 1+	79.7%	Bolton Wanderers 2+	47.4%
Cardiff City 1+	75.8%	Cardiff City 2+	41.5%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

41/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Over 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 48%

57.8% fair odds 1.73

strong signal · 12499 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Bolton Wanderers (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 88%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Bolton Wanderers carry the stronger rating, 1454 Elo against 1364.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Bolton Wanderers have only 5 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bolton Wanderers have an estimated 41.5% win probability, against 31.5% for Cardiff City and 27.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.60 for Bolton Wanderers and 1.42 for Cardiff City.

Why Bolton Wanderers

Bolton Wanderers carry the stronger rating, 1454 Elo against 1364.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.1%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.60 to 1.42. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Cardiff City can win

Nothing in the data singles out Cardiff City.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Bolton Wanderers, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cardiff City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Bolton Wanderers: 54% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cardiff City: 67% possession, 18.2 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Bolton Wanderers are the model's most likely outcome at 41.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 41/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	402733	1.60–1.42	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	392932	1.51–1.37	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	412831	1.47–1.26	1-1 14%	51%	57%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	403030	1.34–1.13	1-1 14%	45%	51%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers to win	40.7%	42.9%	43.4%	0.99×	2.33
Cardiff City to win	30.9%	30.6%	29.1%	1.05×	3.27
Draw	28.5%	27.7%	27.6%	1.00×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers & not both score	20.4%	21.8%	23.2%	0.94×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	20.5%	21.8%	20.4%	1.07×	4.60
Bolton Wanderers & both teams score	20.2%	21.8%	20.3%	1.07×	4.60
Cardiff City & both teams score	15.9%	18.0%	13.9%	1.30×	5.55
Cardiff City & not both score	14.9%	13.3%	15.3%	0.87×	7.54
Draw & not both score	8.0%	8.4%	7.3%	1.14×	11.96

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers & over 1.5	32.5%	31.0%	32.5%	0.96×	3.22
Bolton Wanderers & under 3.5	27.5%	25.9%	32.4%	0.80×	3.85
Bolton Wanderers & over 2.5	25.5%	25.9%	26.4%	0.98×	3.86
Cardiff City & over 1.5	24.1%	21.6%	21.4%	1.01×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	21.6%	21.6%	21.7%	0.99×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.6%	21.6%	21.7%	0.99×	4.63
Cardiff City & under 3.5	21.6%	21.6%	22.3%	0.97×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.5%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Cardiff City & over 2.5	19.0%	18.0%	16.2%	1.11×	5.57
Bolton Wanderers & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.57
Bolton Wanderers & over 3.5	13.1%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.78
Cardiff City & under 2.5	11.9%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.78
Cardiff City & over 3.5	9.2%	8.0%	6.8%	1.17×	12.57
Bolton Wanderers & under 1.5	8.1%	8.0%	11.0%	0.72×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	8.0%	8.0%	7.3%	1.09×	12.57
Draw & over 2.5	6.9%	8.0%	6.0%	1.33×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	6.9%	8.0%	6.0%	1.33×	12.57
Cardiff City & under 1.5	6.7%	8.0%	7.8%	1.03×	12.57

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers (1UP)	57.6%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Cardiff City (1UP)	49.1%	43.4%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers (2UP)	40.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Cardiff City (2UP)	30.9%	30.7%	—	—	3.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Bolton Wanderers to win 2nd half	34.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Cardiff City to win 2nd half	29.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.5%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Cardiff City over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Cardiff City under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Cardiff City over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Bolton Wanderers over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Bolton Wanderers under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Bolton Wanderers over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (+2.5)	92.1%	92.1%	92.0%	1.00×	1.09
Cardiff City (+1.5)	79.6%	78.4%	80.7%	0.97×	1.28
Bolton Wanderers (+0.5)	69.1%	68.7%	70.9%	0.97×	1.46
Cardiff City (+0.5)	59.3%	57.0%	56.6%	1.01×	1.76
Bolton Wanderers (-0.5)	40.7%	43.0%	43.4%	0.99×	2.32
Cardiff City (-0.5)	30.9%	31.3%	29.1%	1.08×	3.20
Bolton Wanderers (-1.5)	20.4%	21.6%	19.3%	1.12×	4.62
Bolton Wanderers (-2.5)	7.9%	7.9%	8.0%	0.98×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede	77.0%	78.7%	77.5%	1.02×	1.27
Cardiff City clean sheet	23.0%	21.3%	22.5%	0.94×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede in 1st half	46.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Cardiff City clean sheet in 1st half	53.1%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede in 2nd half	56.8%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Cardiff City clean sheet in 2nd half	43.2%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 6.5 corners	81.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Cardiff City under 5.5 corners	72.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Cardiff City over 2.5 corners	69.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Cardiff City under 4.5 corners	60.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Cardiff City over 3.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Cardiff City under 3.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cardiff City over 4.5 corners	39.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cardiff City under 2.5 corners	30.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Cardiff City over 5.5 corners	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Cardiff City over 6.5 corners	18.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 3.5 goals	96.1%	97.4%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Cardiff City under 2.5 goals	86.7%	87.9%	90.5%	0.97×	1.14
Cardiff City over 0.5 goals	71.5%	71.9%	69.6%	1.03×	1.39
Cardiff City under 1.5 goals	64.2%	63.5%	70.0%	0.91×	1.58
Cardiff City over 1.5 goals	35.8%	36.5%	30.0%	1.22×	2.74
Cardiff City under 0.5 goals	28.5%	28.1%	30.4%	0.92×	3.55
Cardiff City over 2.5 goals	13.3%	12.1%	9.5%	1.28×	8.25
Cardiff City over 3.5 goals	3.9%	2.6%	2.2%	1.16×	38.81

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 1.5 in 1st half	90.9%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Cardiff City under 0.5 in 1st half	60.5%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Cardiff City over 0.5 in 1st half	39.5%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Cardiff City over 1.5 in 1st half	9.1%	5.9%	—	—	17.00

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City scores equally in both	40.3%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Cardiff City scores more in 2nd half	37.7%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Cardiff City scores more in 1st half	22.0%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers (away no bet)	58.8%	57.4%	61.1%	0.94×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.2%	42.6%	38.9%	1.09×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City even goals	54.0%	52.8%	52.3%	1.01×	1.90
Cardiff City odd goals	46.0%	47.2%	47.7%	0.99×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.2%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.8%	12.4%	—	—	8.03

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.6%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.5%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Bolton Wanderers to score 2+ in a row	34.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Cardiff City to score 2+ in a row	27.2%	25.0%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.3%	16.4%	—	—	6.12
Bolton Wanderers to score 3+ in a row	11.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Cardiff City to score 3+ in a row	7.8%	5.6%	—	—	17.71

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers corners (+3.5)	84.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Cardiff City corners (+3.5)	80.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Bolton Wanderers corners (+2.5)	77.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Cardiff City corners (+2.5)	72.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Bolton Wanderers corners (+1.5)	68.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Cardiff City corners (+1.5)	62.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bolton Wanderers corners (-1.5)	37.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cardiff City corners (-1.5)	31.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Bolton Wanderers corners (-2.5)	27.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Cardiff City corners (-2.5)	22.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Bolton Wanderers corners (-3.5)	19.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Cardiff City corners (-3.5)	15.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.6%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
9-11 corners	25.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	22.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.7%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	70.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.2%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	57.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	37.8%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	29.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	22.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.3%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.6%	11.4%	14.5%	0.78×	8.80
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	11.5%	0.64×	13.53
0-0	8.0%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.53
0-1	6.7%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.53
1-0	8.1%	7.4%	11.0%	0.67×	13.53
1-2	7.6%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.53
2-0	7.1%	7.4%	6.1%	1.20×	13.53
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	5.3%	1.40×	13.53
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	5.2%	1.42×	13.53
0-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	57.67
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.07×	57.68
1-3	3.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.57×	57.66
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.6%	2.91×	57.67
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	57.67
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	6.78×	57.68
3-0	3.5%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	57.66
3-1	4.4%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	57.66
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	57.67
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.9%	2.03×	57.67
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.78×	57.68
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	57.67
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	2.03×	57.67
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.26×	57.67
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	10.17×	57.68
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.34×	57.68
Any other score	2.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	57.67

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers (2nd half DNB)	53.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Cardiff City (2nd half DNB)	46.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers leading at HT (DNB)	57.4%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Cardiff City leading at HT (DNB)	42.6%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers or Cardiff City (12)	71.5%	72.3%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Bolton Wanderers or draw (1X)	69.1%	69.4%	70.9%	0.98×	1.44
Cardiff City or draw (X2)	59.3%	57.1%	56.6%	1.01×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers or draw at HT	76.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Cardiff City or draw at HT	67.7%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Bolton Wanderers or Cardiff City at HT	56.3%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers or draw (1UP)	69.1%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Cardiff City or draw (1UP)	59.3%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers or draw in 2nd half	70.6%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Cardiff City or draw in 2nd half	65.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Bolton Wanderers or Cardiff City in 2nd half	63.6%	64.1%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.6%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers (DNB)	56.9%	58.3%	59.9%	0.97×	1.72
Cardiff City (DNB)	43.2%	41.7%	40.1%	1.04×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers to score first	49.6%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Cardiff City to score first	42.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	8.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.29

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.6%	54.8%	54.4%	1.01×	1.83
Not both teams to score	43.4%	45.2%	45.6%	0.99×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.0%	41.7%	40.0%	1.04×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.1%	38.6%	37.2%	1.04×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	13.6%	12.3%	14.5%	0.85×	8.15
Not both score & over 2.5	8.3%	8.4%	8.5%	0.98×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.5%	82.5%	89.0%	0.93×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.5%	17.5%	11.0%	1.59×	5.73

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.2%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	25.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.7%	—	—	14.87

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.2%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.8%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.8%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	45.2%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.9%	46.9%	50.5%	0.93×	2.13
4-6 goals	27.1%	27.0%	22.4%	1.20×	3.71
0-1 goals	22.9%	23.0%	25.9%	0.89×	4.34
7+ goals	2.2%	1.9%	1.4%	1.36×	54.00

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.8%	39.6%	0.90×	2.80
Cardiff City to score exactly 0	28.5%	27.6%	30.4%	0.91×	3.62
Cardiff City to score exactly 2	22.5%	22.5%	20.6%	1.09×	4.45
Cardiff City to score 3+	13.3%	13.0%	9.5%	1.37×	7.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers to score exactly 1	33.8%	32.6%	36.9%	0.88×	3.06
Bolton Wanderers to score exactly 2	24.9%	23.4%	24.6%	0.95×	4.28
Bolton Wanderers to score exactly 0	23.0%	23.3%	22.5%	1.04×	4.28
Bolton Wanderers to score 3+	18.4%	19.2%	16.1%	1.19×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.7%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Bolton Wanderers leading at HT	32.3%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Cardiff City leading at HT	24.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers -1: 2	59.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Bolton Wanderers -1: 1	20.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
Bolton Wanderers -1: X	20.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (0:1)	59.3%	55.7%	56.6%	0.98×	1.79
Bolton Wanderers (0:1)	20.4%	24.4%	19.3%	1.27×	4.10
Draw (0:1)	20.2%	24.4%	24.2%	1.01×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (0:2)	79.6%	79.6%	80.7%	0.99×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.6%	10.8%	11.3%	0.96×	9.22
Bolton Wanderers (0:2)	7.9%	7.7%	8.0%	0.96×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (0:3)	92.1%	92.7%	92.0%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.4%	5.9%	4.8%	1.24×	16.95
Bolton Wanderers (0:3)	2.5%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.35

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (0:4)	97.5%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.64
Bolton Wanderers (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.20×	81.76

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers (1:0)	69.1%	69.5%	70.9%	0.98×	1.44
Draw (1:0)	17.1%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.86
Cardiff City (1:0)	13.8%	12.8%	11.8%	1.08×	7.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers (2:0)	86.2%	88.2%	88.2%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.2%	6.6%	8.6%	0.76×	15.25
Cardiff City (2:0)	4.6%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	41.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers to concede	71.5%	73.2%	69.6%	1.05×	1.37
Bolton Wanderers clean sheet	28.5%	26.8%	30.4%	0.88×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half	60.5%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Bolton Wanderers to concede in 1st half	39.5%	36.0%	—	—	2.78

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers to concede in 2nd half	53.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Bolton Wanderers clean sheet in 2nd half	47.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers under 6.5 corners	78.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Bolton Wanderers over 2.5 corners	73.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Bolton Wanderers under 5.5 corners	68.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Bolton Wanderers over 3.5 corners	58.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Bolton Wanderers under 4.5 corners	56.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Bolton Wanderers over 4.5 corners	43.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Bolton Wanderers under 3.5 corners	41.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Bolton Wanderers over 5.5 corners	31.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Bolton Wanderers under 2.5 corners	26.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Bolton Wanderers over 6.5 corners	21.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers under 3.5 goals	93.8%	92.1%	94.9%	0.97×	1.09
Bolton Wanderers under 2.5 goals	81.6%	81.9%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Bolton Wanderers over 0.5 goals	77.0%	77.4%	77.5%	1.00×	1.29
Bolton Wanderers under 1.5 goals	56.8%	58.6%	59.3%	0.99×	1.71
Bolton Wanderers over 1.5 goals	43.2%	41.4%	40.7%	1.02×	2.41
Bolton Wanderers under 0.5 goals	23.0%	22.6%	22.5%	1.00×	4.43
Bolton Wanderers over 2.5 goals	18.4%	18.1%	16.1%	1.12×	5.54
Bolton Wanderers over 3.5 goals	6.2%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.71

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.7%	—	—	1.11
Bolton Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half	46.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Bolton Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half	53.1%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Bolton Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half	13.3%	10.3%	—	—	9.75

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers scores more in 2nd half	37.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Bolton Wanderers scores equally in both	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Bolton Wanderers scores more in 1st half	25.5%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (home no bet)	52.0%	51.5%	51.3%	1.00×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	48.0%	48.5%	48.7%	1.00×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers even goals	52.6%	50.4%	50.6%	1.00×	1.98
Bolton Wanderers odd goals	47.4%	49.6%	49.4%	1.00×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	20.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-1	15.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	10.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 2-0	6.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 0-2	4.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.41
Any other HT score	4.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.41
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.52
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.65

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers at HT / Bolton Wanderers at FT	24.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Cardiff City at HT / Cardiff City at FT	16.5%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Bolton Wanderers at FT	14.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Cardiff City at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Bolton Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Cardiff City at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
Bolton Wanderers at HT / Cardiff City at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Cardiff City at HT / Bolton Wanderers at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers to score last	49.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Cardiff City to score last	42.3%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	8.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.29

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.0%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Bolton Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time	57.6%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Cardiff City to lead by 1 at any time	49.1%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.1%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Bolton Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time	26.8%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
Cardiff City to lead by 2 at any time	19.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.1%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Bolton Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time	9.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.98
Cardiff City to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.16

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers most corners	47.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cardiff City most corners	41.4%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.8%	78.5%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.0%	72.3%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.3%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	63.0%	63.2%	64.8%	0.97×	1.58
1-3 goals	62.8%	63.2%	69.1%	0.91×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.2%	48.5%	47.1%	1.03×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.9%	48.5%	50.5%	0.96×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.4%	48.5%	44.6%	1.09×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.7%	43.6%	44.3%	0.98×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.2%	39.3%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.1%	30.6%	22.4%	1.37×	3.27
4-5 goals	23.3%	24.8%	19.9%	1.25×	4.03
5-6 goals	12.0%	15.0%	8.1%	1.86×	6.65
7+ goals	2.2%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	38.97

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers never behind	42.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Cardiff City never behind	34.4%	35.7%	—	—	2.81

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.8%	51.0%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.2%	49.0%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.1%	92.2%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.0%	92.2%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.9%	87.4%	90.6%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	77.1%	77.2%	74.1%	1.04×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	70.8%	72.4%	76.3%	0.95×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.3%	53.0%	48.4%	1.09×	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	48.7%	47.0%	51.6%	0.91×	2.13
Over 3.5 goals	29.2%	27.6%	23.7%	1.16×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	22.9%	22.8%	25.9%	0.88×	4.39
Over 4.5 goals	14.1%	12.6%	9.4%	1.34×	7.96
Under 0.5 goals	8.0%	7.8%	7.3%	1.06×	12.84
Over 5.5 goals	5.9%	7.8%	3.9%	1.99×	12.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.6%	92.4%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.4%	80.5%	89.1%	0.90×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.2%	67.7%	65.1%	1.04×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.5%	61.6%	68.5%	0.90×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.5%	38.4%	31.5%	1.22×	2.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.8%	32.3%	34.9%	0.93×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.6%	19.5%	10.9%	1.78×	5.13
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.4%	7.6%	4.1%	1.83×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.8%	1.4%	2.03×	35.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.4%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.6%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.4%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.6%	30.9%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to score in both halves	79.1%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Bolton Wanderers not to score in both halves	73.4%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Bolton Wanderers to score in both halves	26.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Cardiff City to score in both halves	20.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.6%	58.7%	54.4%	1.08×	1.71
Only Bolton Wanderers scores	20.4%	22.0%	23.2%	0.95×	4.55
Only Cardiff City scores	14.9%	11.1%	15.3%	0.73×	9.00
Neither team scores	8.0%	7.1%	7.3%	0.97×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.8%	24.7%	25.7%	0.96×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.4%	24.8%	0.90×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	15.1%	17.5%	14.4%	1.22×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	14.8%	12.1%	18.7%	0.65×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	8.2%	7.8%	5.5%	1.40×	12.85
Exactly 0 goals	8.0%	7.8%	7.3%	1.06×	12.85
6 or more goals	5.9%	7.8%	3.9%	1.98×	12.86

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	32.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.0%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	10.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.23

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.8%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	20.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to win both halves	92.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Bolton Wanderers not to win both halves	88.7%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Bolton Wanderers to win both halves	11.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Cardiff City to win both halves	7.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bolton Wanderers to win either half	55.2%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Cardiff City to win neither half	53.9%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Cardiff City to win either half	46.1%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Bolton Wanderers to win neither half	44.8%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to win to nil	85.1%	87.9%	84.7%	1.04×	1.14
Bolton Wanderers not to win to nil	79.6%	78.4%	76.8%	1.02×	1.28
Bolton Wanderers to win to nil	20.4%	21.6%	23.2%	0.93×	4.63
Cardiff City to win to nil	14.9%	12.1%	15.3%	0.79×	8.27

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.5%	27.7%	27.6%	1.00×	3.61
Bolton Wanderers by 1	20.2%	24.2%	24.2%	1.00×	4.14
Cardiff City by 1	17.1%	16.9%	17.4%	0.97×	5.92
Bolton Wanderers by 2	12.6%	11.7%	11.3%	1.03×	8.53
Cardiff City by 2	9.2%	7.3%	8.6%	0.84×	13.76
Bolton Wanderers by 3+	7.9%	7.3%	8.0%	0.91×	13.76
Cardiff City by 3+	4.6%	2.8%	3.2%	0.87×	35.55

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.