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Boreham Wood v Harrogate Town — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-National League · 2627

ENG-National League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Boreham Wood win
59.7%
Draw
19.3%
Harrogate Town win
20.9%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 9.6%
  2. 1-1 8.4%
  3. 2-0 7.7%
  4. 1-0 7.3%
  5. 3-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.567.1% Under 2.532.9%
BTTS yes63.0% BTTS no37.0%
Boreham Wood 1+89.1% Boreham Wood 2+64.9%
Harrogate Town 1+71.1% Harrogate Town 2+35.2%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
26/100
Data quality
30/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Boreham Wood & over 1.5
1X2 & Over/Under · usually 34%
51.1% fair odds 1.96
strong signal · 3002 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Harrogate Town (0:3)
Handicap 0:3 · usually 90%
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 2688 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Boreham Wood have only 1 matches on record.
  • Harrogate Town have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Boreham Wood have an estimated 59.7% win probability, against 20.9% for Harrogate Town and 19.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.21 for Boreham Wood and 1.24 for Harrogate Town.

Why Boreham Wood

Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.3%.

Why Harrogate Town can win

Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Boreham Wood, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Harrogate Town, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Boreham Wood: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Harrogate Town: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Boreham Wood are the model's most likely outcome at 59.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.6%. Confidence 26/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.21–1.24 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.43–1.67 2-1 8% 78% 74%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to win 59.7% 58.1% 43.7% 1.33× 1.72
Harrogate Town to win 20.9% 23.5% 33.6% 0.70× 4.26
Draw 19.3% 18.0% 22.8% 0.79× 5.54
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood & both teams score 33.7% 31.0% 22.0% 1.41× 3.23
Boreham Wood & not both score 26.1% 26.5% 21.9% 1.21× 3.78
Draw & both teams score 16.5% 18.2% 18.2% 1.00× 5.49
Harrogate Town & both teams score 12.9% 12.6% 17.3% 0.73× 7.91
Harrogate Town & not both score 8.1% 7.7% 16.5% 0.47× 13.04
Draw & not both score 2.8% 4.1% 4.8% 0.87× 24.28
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood & over 1.5 52.4% 51.1% 34.4% 1.48× 1.96
Boreham Wood & over 2.5 44.7% 42.8% 29.0% 1.48× 2.34
Boreham Wood & under 3.5 30.4% 31.8% 28.1% 1.13× 3.15
Boreham Wood & over 3.5 29.3% 26.5% 15.8% 1.67× 3.78
Draw & over 1.5 16.5% 17.7% 18.2% 0.97× 5.66
Harrogate Town & over 1.5 16.7% 17.7% 27.7% 0.64× 5.66
Boreham Wood & under 2.5 15.1% 17.7% 14.9% 1.19× 5.66
Harrogate Town & over 2.5 14.3% 12.5% 21.6% 0.58× 8.03
Harrogate Town & under 3.5 13.1% 12.5% 24.2% 0.51× 8.03
Draw & under 2.5 11.2% 12.5% 16.2% 0.77× 8.03
Draw & under 3.5 11.2% 12.5% 16.2% 0.77× 8.03
Boreham Wood & under 1.5 7.3% 7.6% 9.5% 0.80× 13.17
Draw & over 2.5 8.1% 7.6% 6.8% 1.11× 13.17
Draw & over 3.5 8.1% 7.6% 6.8% 1.11× 13.17
Harrogate Town & under 2.5 6.7% 7.6% 12.2% 0.62× 13.17
Harrogate Town & over 3.5 7.9% 7.6% 9.5% 0.80× 13.17
Harrogate Town & under 1.5 4.2% 4.3% 6.0% 0.72× 22.99
Draw & under 1.5 2.8% 4.3% 4.8% 0.91× 23.00
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (1UP) 74.2% 76.9% 1.30
Harrogate Town (1UP) 41.7% 42.9% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (2UP) 59.7% 56.2% 1.78
Harrogate Town (2UP) 20.9% 22.8% 4.39
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to win 2nd half 48.7% 45.3% 2.21
2nd half drawn 29.2% 29.7% 3.37
Harrogate Town to win 2nd half 22.1% 22.3% 4.48
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (+2.5) 80.5% 83.1% 89.7% 0.93× 1.20
Boreham Wood (+0.5) 79.1% 78.3% 66.4% 1.18× 1.28
Harrogate Town (+1.5) 62.8% 62.8% 79.4% 0.79× 1.59
Boreham Wood (-0.5) 59.7% 58.3% 43.7% 1.33× 1.71
Harrogate Town (+0.5) 40.3% 41.7% 56.3% 0.74× 2.40
Boreham Wood (-1.5) 37.2% 37.2% 20.6% 1.81× 2.69
Harrogate Town (-0.5) 20.9% 21.7% 33.6% 0.65× 4.60
Boreham Wood (-2.5) 19.5% 16.9% 10.3% 1.64× 5.91
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town to concede 89.1% 88.2% 78.9% 1.12× 1.13
Harrogate Town clean sheet 10.9% 11.8% 21.1% 0.56× 8.50
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town to concede in 1st half 61.4% 62.0% 1.61
Harrogate Town clean sheet in 1st half 38.6% 38.0% 2.63
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town under 3.5 goals 96.3% 97.3% 96.4% 1.01× 1.03
Harrogate Town under 2.5 goals 87.0% 87.2% 84.5% 1.03× 1.15
Harrogate Town over 0.5 goals 71.1% 71.3% 73.5% 0.97× 1.40
Harrogate Town under 1.5 goals 64.8% 63.7% 59.4% 1.07× 1.57
Harrogate Town over 1.5 goals 35.2% 36.3% 40.6% 0.89× 2.76
Harrogate Town under 0.5 goals 28.9% 28.7% 26.5% 1.09× 3.48
Harrogate Town over 2.5 goals 13.0% 12.8% 15.5% 0.82× 7.81
Harrogate Town over 3.5 goals 3.8% 2.7% 3.6% 0.73× 37.45
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town under 1.5 in 1st half 91.1% 93.6% 1.07
Harrogate Town under 0.5 in 1st half 60.9% 62.4% 1.60
Harrogate Town over 0.5 in 1st half 39.1% 37.6% 2.66
Harrogate Town over 1.5 in 1st half 8.9% 6.4% 15.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (away no bet) 75.5% 75.6% 65.7% 1.15× 1.32
Draw (away no bet) 24.5% 24.4% 34.3% 0.71× 4.09
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town even goals 54.2% 53.5% 54.4% 0.98× 1.87
Harrogate Town odd goals 45.8% 46.5% 45.6% 1.02× 2.15
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 74.7% 77.0% 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 25.3% 23.0% 4.34
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 76.6% 74.5% 1.34
Both halves under 1.5 goals 23.4% 25.5% 3.92
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 69.3% 67.2% 1.49
Boreham Wood to score 2+ in a row 55.4% 58.0% 1.72
Either team to score 3+ in a row 31.7% 32.3% 3.10
Boreham Wood to score 3+ in a row 26.4% 27.1% 3.69
Harrogate Town to score 2+ in a row 23.8% 21.2% 4.71
Harrogate Town to score 3+ in a row 5.9% 7.8% 12.84
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 7.3% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.48
1-1 8.4% 7.4% 11.6% 0.64× 13.48
1-2 5.4% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.49
2-0 7.7% 7.4% 5.5% 1.34× 13.48
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 9.7% 0.77× 13.48
2-2 6.0% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.49
3-0 5.7% 7.4% 3.8% 1.95× 13.49
3-1 7.1% 7.4% 3.5% 2.13× 13.48
Any other score 8.2% 7.4% 4.0% 1.87× 13.48
0-0 2.8% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.10
0-1 4.2% 1.7% 6.0% 0.29× 58.10
0-2 2.4% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.10
0-3 1.0% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.11
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.62× 58.11
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.11
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.55× 58.11
2-3 2.5% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.10
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.71× 58.11
3-2 4.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.10
3-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.09× 58.11
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.71× 58.11
4-0 3.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.10
4-1 3.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 58.10
4-2 2.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.09× 58.10
4-3 1.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.62× 58.11
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.62× 58.11
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood leading at HT (DNB) 70.8% 73.9% 1.35
Harrogate Town leading at HT (DNB) 29.2% 26.1% 3.82
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood or Harrogate Town (12) 80.7% 82.0% 77.2% 1.06× 1.22
Boreham Wood or draw (1X) 79.1% 76.5% 66.4% 1.15× 1.31
Harrogate Town or draw (X2) 40.3% 41.9% 56.3% 0.74× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood or draw at HT 81.3% 83.5% 1.20
Boreham Wood or Harrogate Town at HT 64.1% 62.7% 1.59
Harrogate Town or draw at HT 54.6% 54.1% 1.85
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood or draw (1UP) 79.1% 82.8% 1.21
Harrogate Town or draw (1UP) 41.7% 52.9% 1.89
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood or draw in 2nd half 77.9% 77.7% 1.29
Boreham Wood or Harrogate Town in 2nd half 70.8% 70.3% 1.42
Harrogate Town or draw in 2nd half 51.3% 54.7% 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 45.1% 50.0% 2.00
A half drawn 54.9% 50.0% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (DNB) 74.0% 73.1% 56.6% 1.29× 1.37
Harrogate Town (DNB) 26.0% 26.9% 43.4% 0.62× 3.72
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to score first 62.3% 64.7% 1.55
Harrogate Town to score first 34.9% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 2.8% 4.4% 22.57
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 63.0% 58.6% 57.2% 1.02× 1.71
Not both teams to score 37.0% 41.4% 42.8% 0.97× 2.41
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 54.7% 48.2% 45.8% 1.05× 2.08
Not both score & under 2.5 24.6% 25.4% 31.5% 0.81× 3.93
Not both score & over 2.5 12.4% 11.9% 11.4% 1.04× 8.41
Both score & under 2.5 8.4% 8.5% 11.6% 0.73× 11.81
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 77.1% 79.7% 82.7% 0.96× 1.26
Both teams to score 2+ 22.9% 20.3% 17.3% 1.17× 4.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 62.5% 65.0% 1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half 37.5% 35.0% 2.86
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 47.5% 50.0% 2.00
Both score 2nd half only 28.5% 26.0% 3.85
Both score 1st half only 14.9% 11.9% 8.37
Both score in both halves 9.1% 7.2% 13.96
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 76.0% 79.4% 1.26
Both teams to score by HT 24.0% 20.6% 4.87
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 66.1% 67.8% 1.47
A half without a goal 33.9% 32.2% 3.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 40.3% 43.4% 48.3% 0.90× 2.31
4-6 goals 39.2% 35.5% 29.5% 1.21× 2.81
0-1 goals 14.4% 15.0% 20.0% 0.75× 6.68
7+ goals 6.2% 6.8% 2.5% 2.68× 14.71
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town to score exactly 1 35.9% 36.0% 33.1% 1.09× 2.78
Harrogate Town to score exactly 0 28.9% 27.4% 26.5% 1.03× 3.65
Harrogate Town to score exactly 2 22.3% 23.1% 25.2% 0.92× 4.32
Harrogate Town to score 3+ 13.0% 12.9% 15.5% 0.83× 7.75
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to score 3+ 38.1% 36.5% 21.9% 1.67× 2.74
Boreham Wood to score exactly 2 26.8% 26.4% 23.6% 1.12× 3.79
Boreham Wood to score exactly 1 24.2% 22.9% 33.8% 0.68× 4.37
Boreham Wood to score exactly 0 10.9% 13.2% 21.1% 0.63× 7.59
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood leading at HT 45.4% 45.9% 2.18
Draw at HT 35.9% 37.3% 2.68
Harrogate Town leading at HT 18.7% 16.5% 6.05
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood -1: 2 40.3% 41.4% 2.42
Boreham Wood -1: 1 37.2% 36.0% 2.77
Boreham Wood -1: X 22.5% 23.2% 4.30
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (0:1) 40.3% 40.8% 56.3% 0.73× 2.45
Boreham Wood (0:1) 37.2% 36.2% 20.6% 1.76× 2.77
Draw (0:1) 22.5% 23.5% 23.3% 1.01× 4.25
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (0:2) 62.8% 66.6% 79.4% 0.84× 1.50
Boreham Wood (0:2) 19.5% 15.7% 10.3% 1.53× 6.36
Draw (0:2) 17.8% 15.7% 10.5% 1.50× 6.36
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (0:3) 80.5% 84.3% 89.7% 0.94× 1.19
Draw (0:3) 10.9% 11.8% 5.5% 2.12× 8.51
Boreham Wood (0:3) 8.6% 6.4% 4.9% 1.31× 15.56
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (0:4) 91.4% 93.6% 95.1% 0.98× 1.07
Draw (0:4) 5.4% 6.6% 3.6% 1.81× 15.18
Boreham Wood (0:4) 3.2% 1.4% 1.4% 0.99× 70.51
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (1:0) 79.1% 77.3% 66.4% 1.16× 1.29
Draw (1:0) 12.8% 12.5% 17.6% 0.71× 8.02
Harrogate Town (1:0) 8.2% 7.5% 16.2% 0.46× 13.31
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (2:0) 91.8% 92.9% 83.8% 1.11× 1.08
Draw (2:0) 5.6% 6.7% 10.1% 0.66× 14.99
Harrogate Town (2:0) 2.6% 2.8% 6.2% 0.45× 36.35
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.8% 51.4% 1.95
1st half highest scoring 28.0% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 21.1% 23.2% 4.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to concede 71.1% 72.0% 73.5% 0.98× 1.39
Boreham Wood clean sheet 28.9% 28.0% 26.5% 1.06× 3.57
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood clean sheet in 1st half 60.9% 62.3% 1.61
Boreham Wood to concede in 1st half 39.1% 37.7% 2.65
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood over 0.5 goals 89.1% 87.5% 78.9% 1.11× 1.14
Boreham Wood under 3.5 goals 81.7% 82.2% 91.1% 0.90× 1.22
Boreham Wood over 1.5 goals 64.9% 62.5% 45.3% 1.38× 1.60
Boreham Wood under 2.5 goals 61.9% 62.4% 78.1% 0.80× 1.60
Boreham Wood over 2.5 goals 38.1% 37.6% 21.9% 1.72× 2.66
Boreham Wood under 1.5 goals 35.1% 37.5% 54.7% 0.69× 2.66
Boreham Wood over 3.5 goals 18.3% 17.8% 8.9% 2.01× 5.61
Boreham Wood under 0.5 goals 10.9% 12.5% 21.1% 0.59× 7.98
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood under 1.5 in 1st half 75.3% 76.2% 1.31
Boreham Wood over 0.5 in 1st half 61.4% 61.8% 1.62
Boreham Wood under 0.5 in 1st half 38.6% 38.2% 2.62
Boreham Wood over 1.5 in 1st half 24.7% 23.8% 4.21
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (home no bet) 52.0% 52.1% 59.6% 0.88× 1.92
Draw (home no bet) 48.0% 47.9% 40.4% 1.18× 2.09
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood even goals 50.6% 50.9% 50.6% 1.01× 1.96
Boreham Wood odd goals 49.4% 49.1% 49.4% 0.99× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 23.4% 22.2% 4.51
HT 1-0 22.4% 22.2% 4.51
HT 0-1 11.7% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-1 11.1% 10.9% 9.15
HT 2-0 10.6% 10.9% 9.16
Any other HT score 8.5% 8.0% 12.45
HT 2-1 5.3% 8.0% 12.48
HT 0-2 2.9% 2.5% 40.42
HT 1-2 2.8% 2.5% 40.42
HT 2-2 1.3% 2.5% 40.49
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood at HT / Boreham Wood at FT 38.5% 38.9% 2.57
Draw at HT / Boreham Wood at FT 17.7% 17.2% 5.82
Harrogate Town at HT / Harrogate Town at FT 10.8% 12.2% 8.22
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.1% 12.2% 8.22
Draw at HT / Harrogate Town at FT 8.1% 6.4% 15.54
Boreham Wood at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.7% 27.26
Harrogate Town at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.7% 27.28
Harrogate Town at HT / Boreham Wood at FT 3.6% 3.7% 27.30
Boreham Wood at HT / Harrogate Town at FT 2.0% 3.7% 27.34
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to score last 62.2% 58.4% 1.71
Harrogate Town to score last 35.0% 34.4% 2.91
No goal scored 2.8% 4.4% 22.57
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 97.2% 95.6% 1.05
Boreham Wood to lead by 1 at any time 74.2% 75.5% 1.32
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 59.3% 57.3% 1.75
Boreham Wood to lead by 2 at any time 45.5% 46.7% 2.14
Harrogate Town to lead by 1 at any time 41.7% 41.3% 2.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 27.4% 25.8% 3.88
Boreham Wood to lead by 3 at any time 23.3% 21.4% 4.68
Harrogate Town to lead by 2 at any time 14.3% 11.0% 9.08
Harrogate Town to lead by 3 at any time 4.1% 2.5% 40.13
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.5% 82.0% 88.1% 0.93× 1.22
2-6 goals 79.5% 77.9% 77.7% 1.00× 1.28
2-5 goals 72.0% 72.1% 72.9% 0.99× 1.39
1-4 goals 70.6% 72.1% 77.7% 0.93× 1.39
3-6 goals 60.9% 62.7% 54.7% 1.15× 1.60
2-4 goals 59.0% 58.8% 62.4% 0.94× 1.70
3-5 goals 53.5% 52.9% 49.9% 1.06× 1.89
1-3 goals 51.8% 52.9% 63.6% 0.83× 1.89
2-3 goals 40.3% 43.7% 48.3% 0.90× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.7% 39.5% 1.11× 2.29
4-6 goals 39.2% 39.0% 29.5% 1.32× 2.56
4-5 goals 31.7% 34.6% 24.7% 1.40× 2.89
1-2 goals 30.1% 34.6% 38.4% 0.90× 2.89
5-6 goals 20.4% 23.8% 15.4% 1.55× 4.20
7+ goals 6.2% 8.9% 2.5% 3.52× 11.19
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood never behind 55.5% 61.8% 1.62
Harrogate Town never behind 23.0% 25.4% 3.94
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 50.6% 50.0% 52.5% 0.95× 2.00
Even number of goals 49.4% 50.0% 47.5% 1.05× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.6% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.4% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.7% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.3% 48.5% 2.06
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 97.2% 96.0% 95.2% 1.01× 1.04
Under 5.5 goals 86.4% 87.7% 92.7% 0.95× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 85.6% 87.7% 80.0% 1.10× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 73.4% 72.2% 82.3% 0.88× 1.39
Over 2.5 goals 67.1% 67.5% 57.1% 1.18× 1.48
Under 3.5 goals 54.6% 52.2% 68.1% 0.77× 1.92
Over 3.5 goals 45.4% 47.8% 31.9% 1.50× 2.09
Under 2.5 goals 32.9% 32.5% 42.9% 0.76× 3.08
Over 4.5 goals 26.6% 27.8% 17.8% 1.57× 3.60
Under 1.5 goals 14.4% 12.3% 20.0% 0.62× 8.14
Over 5.5 goals 13.6% 12.3% 7.3% 1.69× 8.14
Under 0.5 goals 2.8% 4.0% 4.8% 0.83× 25.26
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 93.3% 92.0% 97.3% 0.95× 1.09
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 84.3% 81.3% 91.9% 0.89× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 82.3% 81.3% 74.1% 1.10× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 67.3% 67.4% 79.3% 0.85× 1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.9% 58.0% 42.6% 1.36× 1.73
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 42.1% 42.0% 57.4% 0.73× 2.38
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 32.7% 32.6% 20.7% 1.58× 3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 17.7% 18.7% 25.9% 0.72× 5.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 15.7% 18.7% 8.1% 2.30× 5.35
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.7% 8.0% 2.7% 2.99× 12.56
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.2% 83.8% 1.19
Over 0.5 in 1st half 76.6% 77.2% 1.30
Under 1.5 in 1st half 57.6% 61.5% 1.63
Over 1.5 in 1st half 42.4% 38.5% 2.60
Under 0.5 in 1st half 23.4% 22.8% 4.39
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.8% 16.2% 6.18
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.7% 84.6% 1.18
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 67.5% 68.3% 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 59.5% 56.5% 1.77
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 40.5% 43.5% 2.30
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 32.5% 31.7% 3.15
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.3% 15.4% 6.50
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town not to score in both halves 79.4% 76.4% 1.31
Boreham Wood not to score in both halves 56.0% 60.4% 1.65
Boreham Wood to score in both halves 44.0% 39.6% 2.53
Harrogate Town to score in both halves 20.6% 23.6% 4.23
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 63.0% 60.8% 57.2% 1.06× 1.65
Only Boreham Wood scores 26.1% 25.5% 21.9% 1.16× 3.93
Only Harrogate Town scores 8.1% 7.2% 16.5% 0.43× 13.96
Neither team scores 2.8% 4.0% 4.8% 0.84× 25.15
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.3% 25.4% 0.88× 4.48
Exactly 2 goals 18.5% 17.6% 23.1% 0.76× 5.69
Exactly 4 goals 18.8% 17.6% 14.3% 1.23× 5.69
Exactly 5 goals 13.0% 12.3% 10.6% 1.16× 8.13
6 or more goals 13.6% 12.3% 7.3% 1.69× 8.13
Exactly 1 goals 11.6% 12.3% 15.4% 0.80× 8.13
Exactly 0 goals 2.8% 4.1% 4.8% 0.85× 24.67
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 59.5% 56.3% 1.78
1 goal in 2nd half 27.2% 26.7% 3.75
No goals in 2nd half 13.3% 14.8% 6.76
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town not to win both halves 95.9% 97.4% 1.03
Boreham Wood not to win both halves 77.9% 80.7% 1.24
Boreham Wood to win both halves 22.1% 19.3% 5.19
Harrogate Town to win both halves 4.1% 2.6% 38.48
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to win either half 72.1% 69.2% 1.45
Harrogate Town to win neither half 63.3% 64.1% 1.56
Harrogate Town to win either half 36.7% 35.9% 2.79
Boreham Wood to win neither half 27.9% 30.8% 3.25
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town not to win to nil 91.9% 92.2% 83.5% 1.10× 1.08
Boreham Wood not to win to nil 73.9% 74.8% 78.1% 0.96× 1.34
Boreham Wood to win to nil 26.1% 25.2% 21.9% 1.15× 3.97
Harrogate Town to win to nil 8.1% 7.8% 16.5% 0.47× 12.84
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood by 1 22.5% 23.3% 23.3% 1.00× 4.29
Boreham Wood by 3+ 19.5% 17.3% 10.3% 1.68× 5.78
Draw 19.3% 17.3% 22.8% 0.76× 5.78
Boreham Wood by 2 17.8% 17.3% 10.5% 1.65× 5.78
Harrogate Town by 1 12.8% 11.8% 17.6% 0.67× 8.46
Harrogate Town by 2 5.6% 7.3% 10.1% 0.72× 13.66
Harrogate Town by 3+ 2.6% 3.0% 6.2% 0.48× 33.82
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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