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Boreham Wood v Harrogate Town — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-National League · 2627

ENG-National League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Boreham Wood win
54.9%
Draw
18.7%
Harrogate Town win
26.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 2.43–1.67 2-1 8% 78% 74%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to win 54.9% 51.5% 43.7% 1.18× 1.94
Harrogate Town to win 26.4% 27.9% 33.6% 0.83× 3.59
Draw 18.7% 19.3% 22.8% 0.85× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood & both teams score 37.5% 33.2% 22.0% 1.51× 3.01
Harrogate Town & both teams score 19.0% 17.9% 17.3% 1.04× 5.58
Boreham Wood & not both score 17.5% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 17.3% 17.9% 18.2% 0.98× 5.58
Harrogate Town & not both score 7.4% 8.4% 16.5% 0.51× 11.95
Draw & not both score 1.4% 4.9% 4.8% 1.02× 20.57
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood & over 1.5 50.6% 48.7% 34.4% 1.42× 2.05
Boreham Wood & over 2.5 45.7% 45.2% 29.0% 1.56× 2.21
Boreham Wood & over 3.5 33.6% 30.9% 15.8% 1.95× 3.24
Harrogate Town & over 1.5 23.4% 21.6% 27.7% 0.78× 4.62
Boreham Wood & under 3.5 21.4% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.62
Harrogate Town & over 2.5 21.0% 21.6% 21.6% 1.00× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 17.3% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Harrogate Town & over 3.5 14.1% 12.9% 9.5% 1.35× 7.77
Harrogate Town & under 3.5 12.2% 12.9% 24.2% 0.53× 7.78
Draw & over 2.5 10.8% 12.9% 6.8% 1.89× 7.78
Draw & over 3.5 10.8% 12.9% 6.8% 1.89× 7.78
Boreham Wood & under 2.5 9.2% 7.9% 14.9% 0.53× 12.69
Draw & under 2.5 7.9% 7.9% 16.2% 0.49× 12.69
Draw & under 3.5 7.9% 7.9% 16.2% 0.49× 12.69
Harrogate Town & under 2.5 5.3% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.69
Boreham Wood & under 1.5 4.3% 4.8% 9.5% 0.50× 20.93
Harrogate Town & under 1.5 3.0% 4.8% 6.0% 0.79× 20.94
Draw & under 1.5 1.4% 4.8% 4.8% 1.00× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (1UP) 72.8% 75.7% 1.32
Harrogate Town (1UP) 50.0% 52.6% 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (2UP) 54.9% 55.9% 1.79
Harrogate Town (2UP) 26.4% 24.5% 4.08
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to win 2nd half 45.8% 45.6% 2.19
Harrogate Town to win 2nd half 27.2% 26.3% 3.81
2nd half drawn 27.0% 26.2% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (+2.5) 81.4% 82.4% 89.7% 0.92× 1.21
Boreham Wood (+0.5) 73.6% 73.7% 66.4% 1.11× 1.36
Harrogate Town (+1.5) 65.4% 68.7% 79.4% 0.87× 1.46
Boreham Wood (-0.5) 54.9% 52.4% 43.7% 1.20× 1.91
Harrogate Town (+0.5) 45.1% 47.6% 56.3% 0.85× 2.10
Boreham Wood (-1.5) 34.6% 31.3% 20.6% 1.52× 3.19
Harrogate Town (-0.5) 26.4% 26.3% 33.6% 0.78× 3.80
Boreham Wood (-2.5) 18.6% 17.6% 10.3% 1.71× 5.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town to concede 91.2% 91.7% 78.9% 1.16× 1.09
Harrogate Town clean sheet 8.8% 8.3% 21.1% 0.39× 12.03
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town to concede in 1st half 64.8% 65.0% 1.54
Harrogate Town clean sheet in 1st half 35.2% 35.0% 2.86
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town under 3.5 goals 91.2% 92.3% 96.4% 0.96× 1.08
Harrogate Town over 0.5 goals 81.1% 81.5% 73.5% 1.11× 1.23
Harrogate Town under 2.5 goals 76.6% 76.2% 84.5% 0.90× 1.31
Harrogate Town under 1.5 goals 50.3% 53.7% 59.4% 0.90× 1.86
Harrogate Town over 1.5 goals 49.7% 46.3% 40.6% 1.14× 2.16
Harrogate Town over 2.5 goals 23.4% 23.8% 15.5% 1.53× 4.20
Harrogate Town under 0.5 goals 18.9% 18.5% 26.5% 0.70× 5.40
Harrogate Town over 3.5 goals 8.8% 7.7% 3.6% 2.10× 13.06
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town under 1.5 in 1st half 85.6% 89.4% 1.12
Harrogate Town under 0.5 in 1st half 51.3% 55.7% 1.79
Harrogate Town over 0.5 in 1st half 48.7% 44.3% 2.26
Harrogate Town over 1.5 in 1st half 14.4% 10.6% 9.48
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (away no bet) 74.6% 68.6% 65.7% 1.04× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 25.4% 31.4% 34.3% 0.92× 3.19
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town even goals 51.8% 52.7% 54.4% 0.97× 1.90
Harrogate Town odd goals 48.2% 47.3% 45.6% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 64.9% 65.3% 1.53
Both halves over 1.5 goals 35.1% 34.7% 2.88
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 84.6% 77.7% 1.29
Both halves under 1.5 goals 15.4% 22.3% 4.48
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 76.6% 75.6% 1.32
Boreham Wood to score 2+ in a row 57.9% 55.4% 1.80
Either team to score 3+ in a row 37.2% 36.3% 2.76
Harrogate Town to score 2+ in a row 34.6% 28.6% 3.50
Boreham Wood to score 3+ in a row 27.7% 25.2% 3.97
Harrogate Town to score 3+ in a row 10.8% 11.9% 8.37
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 12.4% 11.5% 4.0% 2.89× 8.73
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 9.7% 0.77× 13.46
2-2 6.8% 7.4% 5.1% 1.47× 13.46
3-1 6.6% 7.4% 3.5% 2.13× 13.46
1-1 6.5% 7.4% 11.6% 0.64× 13.46
1-2 5.6% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.46
3-2 5.5% 7.4% 4.1% 1.80× 13.46
2-0 4.9% 1.7% 5.5% 0.31× 58.56
0-0 1.4% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.58
0-1 3.0% 1.7% 6.0% 0.28× 58.58
0-2 2.3% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.58
0-3 1.3% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.59
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
1-0 4.3% 1.7% 9.5% 0.18× 58.57
1-3 3.1% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.57
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.54× 58.59
2-3 3.8% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.57
2-4 1.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.69× 58.58
3-0 4.0% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.57
3-3 3.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.57
3-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.69× 58.59
4-0 2.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.58
4-1 4.0% 1.7% 1.7% 0.98× 58.57
4-2 3.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.57
4-3 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.58
4-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood leading at HT (DNB) 65.6% 73.2% 1.37
Harrogate Town leading at HT (DNB) 34.4% 26.8% 3.73
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood or Harrogate Town (12) 81.3% 80.7% 77.2% 1.05× 1.24
Boreham Wood or draw (1X) 73.6% 72.1% 66.4% 1.09× 1.39
Harrogate Town or draw (X2) 45.1% 48.5% 56.3% 0.86× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood or draw at HT 76.9% 80.0% 1.25
Boreham Wood or Harrogate Town at HT 67.1% 66.1% 1.51
Harrogate Town or draw at HT 56.0% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood or draw (1UP) 73.6% 80.0% 1.25
Harrogate Town or draw (1UP) 50.0% 58.6% 1.71
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood or Harrogate Town in 2nd half 73.0% 73.8% 1.36
Boreham Wood or draw in 2nd half 72.8% 73.7% 1.36
Harrogate Town or draw in 2nd half 54.2% 54.4% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 51.3% 50.0% 2.00
Neither half drawn 48.7% 50.0% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (DNB) 67.6% 67.2% 56.6% 1.19× 1.49
Harrogate Town (DNB) 32.4% 32.8% 43.4% 0.76× 3.05
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to score first 58.5% 62.3% 1.61
Harrogate Town to score first 40.1% 41.5% 2.41
No goal scored 1.4% 4.3% 23.37
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 73.7% 62.5% 57.2% 1.09× 1.60
Not both teams to score 26.3% 37.5% 42.8% 0.88× 2.66
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 67.3% 57.4% 45.8% 1.25× 1.74
Not both score & under 2.5 15.9% 21.7% 31.5% 0.69× 4.60
Not both score & over 2.5 10.3% 12.3% 11.4% 1.08× 8.12
Both score & under 2.5 6.5% 8.4% 11.6% 0.72× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 65.3% 70.2% 82.7% 0.85× 1.43
Both teams to score 2+ 34.7% 29.8% 17.3% 1.73× 3.35
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 52.7% 55.3% 1.81
Both teams to score in 2nd half 47.3% 44.7% 2.24
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 36.1% 44.2% 2.26
Both score 2nd half only 32.4% 27.5% 3.64
Both score 1st half only 16.6% 15.6% 6.41
Both score in both halves 15.0% 10.5% 9.49
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 68.5% 70.4% 1.42
Both teams to score by HT 31.5% 29.6% 3.38
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 74.3% 73.1% 1.37
A half without a goal 25.7% 26.9% 3.71
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 46.5% 47.4% 29.5% 1.61× 2.11
2-3 goals 32.8% 30.7% 48.3% 0.64× 3.26
7+ goals 12.1% 16.9% 2.5% 6.67× 5.91
0-1 goals 8.7% 7.6% 20.0% 0.38× 13.10
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town to score exactly 1 31.5% 33.9% 33.1% 1.02× 2.95
Harrogate Town to score exactly 2 26.2% 27.4% 25.2% 1.09× 3.65
Harrogate Town to score 3+ 23.4% 22.4% 15.5% 1.44× 4.47
Harrogate Town to score exactly 0 18.9% 19.6% 26.5% 0.74× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to score 3+ 43.8% 35.1% 21.9% 1.61× 2.85
Boreham Wood to score exactly 2 26.0% 26.5% 23.6% 1.12× 3.77
Boreham Wood to score exactly 1 21.4% 23.3% 33.8% 0.69× 4.30
Boreham Wood to score exactly 0 8.8% 10.3% 21.1% 0.49× 9.68
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood leading at HT 44.0% 43.2% 2.31
Draw at HT 32.9% 33.9% 2.95
Harrogate Town leading at HT 23.1% 20.0% 5.00
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood -1: 2 45.1% 46.8% 2.14
Boreham Wood -1: 1 34.6% 30.0% 3.33
Boreham Wood -1: X 20.3% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (0:1) 45.1% 45.8% 56.3% 0.81× 2.18
Boreham Wood (0:1) 34.6% 30.0% 20.6% 1.46× 3.33
Draw (0:1) 20.3% 24.3% 23.3% 1.04× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (0:2) 65.4% 72.2% 79.4% 0.91× 1.39
Boreham Wood (0:2) 18.6% 15.3% 10.3% 1.49× 6.53
Draw (0:2) 16.0% 15.3% 10.5% 1.46× 6.54
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (0:3) 81.4% 85.0% 89.7% 0.95× 1.18
Draw (0:3) 10.1% 10.0% 5.5% 1.80× 10.01
Boreham Wood (0:3) 8.6% 5.8% 4.9% 1.18× 17.21
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (0:4) 91.4% 94.7% 95.1% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.2% 4.6% 3.6% 1.26× 21.81
Boreham Wood (0:4) 3.4% 1.2% 1.4% 0.84× 83.07
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (1:0) 73.6% 72.5% 66.4% 1.09× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 14.0% 12.8% 17.6% 0.73× 7.80
Harrogate Town (1:0) 12.4% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood (2:0) 87.6% 88.3% 83.8% 1.05× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.5% 6.5% 10.1% 0.64× 15.49
Harrogate Town (2:0) 4.8% 2.3% 6.2% 0.37× 44.10
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 53.1% 50.3% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.8% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 19.1% 19.0% 5.28
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to concede 81.1% 80.7% 73.5% 1.10× 1.24
Boreham Wood clean sheet 18.9% 19.3% 26.5% 0.73× 5.19
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood clean sheet in 1st half 51.3% 55.7% 1.79
Boreham Wood to concede in 1st half 48.7% 44.3% 2.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood over 0.5 goals 91.2% 92.2% 78.9% 1.17× 1.08
Boreham Wood under 3.5 goals 77.3% 77.7% 91.1% 0.85× 1.29
Boreham Wood over 1.5 goals 69.8% 68.0% 45.3% 1.50× 1.47
Boreham Wood under 2.5 goals 56.2% 58.8% 78.1% 0.75× 1.70
Boreham Wood over 2.5 goals 43.8% 41.2% 21.9% 1.88× 2.43
Boreham Wood under 1.5 goals 30.2% 32.0% 54.7% 0.59× 3.12
Boreham Wood over 3.5 goals 22.7% 22.3% 8.9% 2.51× 4.48
Boreham Wood under 0.5 goals 8.8% 7.8% 21.1% 0.37× 12.88
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood under 1.5 in 1st half 71.9% 79.3% 1.26
Boreham Wood over 0.5 in 1st half 64.8% 64.8% 1.54
Boreham Wood under 0.5 in 1st half 35.2% 35.2% 2.84
Boreham Wood over 1.5 in 1st half 28.1% 20.7% 4.82
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town (home no bet) 58.5% 56.7% 59.6% 0.95× 1.76
Draw (home no bet) 41.5% 43.3% 40.4% 1.07× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood even goals 50.4% 50.6% 50.6% 1.00× 1.98
Boreham Wood odd goals 49.6% 49.4% 49.4% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 18.9% 18.9% 5.29
HT 0-0 18.0% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-1 12.5% 11.1% 9.05
HT 0-1 12.1% 11.0% 9.05
Any other HT score 11.6% 11.0% 9.06
HT 2-0 9.9% 7.1% 14.06
HT 2-1 6.6% 7.1% 14.11
HT 1-2 4.2% 2.2% 44.61
HT 0-2 4.0% 2.2% 44.62
HT 2-2 2.2% 2.2% 44.77
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood at HT / Boreham Wood at FT 35.6% 40.9% 2.44
Draw at HT / Boreham Wood at FT 15.2% 16.8% 5.96
Harrogate Town at HT / Harrogate Town at FT 14.3% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Harrogate Town at FT 9.1% 6.1% 16.52
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 8.6% 6.0% 16.54
Boreham Wood at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.63
Harrogate Town at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.10
Harrogate Town at HT / Boreham Wood at FT 4.1% 3.4% 29.12
Boreham Wood at HT / Harrogate Town at FT 3.0% 3.4% 29.17
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to score last 58.4% 56.6% 1.77
Harrogate Town to score last 40.2% 40.0% 2.50
No goal scored 1.4% 4.3% 23.37
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 98.6% 95.6% 1.05
Boreham Wood to lead by 1 at any time 72.8% 74.1% 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 65.1% 69.3% 1.44
Harrogate Town to lead by 1 at any time 50.0% 50.5% 1.98
Boreham Wood to lead by 2 at any time 44.9% 39.1% 2.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 31.2% 29.4% 3.40
Boreham Wood to lead by 3 at any time 23.6% 19.6% 5.09
Harrogate Town to lead by 2 at any time 21.2% 19.6% 5.11
Harrogate Town to lead by 3 at any time 7.6% 6.5% 15.32
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 79.2% 78.6% 77.7% 1.01× 1.27
1-5 goals 75.6% 78.6% 88.1% 0.89× 1.27
2-5 goals 68.3% 69.0% 72.9% 0.95× 1.45
3-6 goals 65.5% 69.0% 54.7% 1.26× 1.45
1-4 goals 59.6% 59.2% 77.7% 0.76× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.6% 53.2% 49.9% 1.06× 1.88
2-4 goals 52.3% 53.1% 62.4% 0.85× 1.88
4-6 goals 46.5% 48.7% 29.5% 1.65× 2.06
1-3 goals 40.1% 43.6% 63.6% 0.69× 2.29
3-4 goals 38.6% 39.2% 39.5% 0.99× 2.55
4-5 goals 35.5% 39.2% 24.7% 1.58× 2.55
2-3 goals 32.8% 35.4% 48.3% 0.73× 2.83
5-6 goals 26.9% 30.2% 15.4% 1.96× 3.31
1-2 goals 21.0% 24.4% 38.4% 0.64× 4.09
7+ goals 12.1% 14.8% 2.5% 5.86× 6.74
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood never behind 48.6% 57.2% 1.75
Harrogate Town never behind 25.8% 29.8% 3.35
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.5% 50.8% 47.5% 1.07× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.5% 49.2% 52.5% 0.94× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.5% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 48.5% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.3% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.7% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 98.6% 95.5% 95.2% 1.00× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 91.3% 92.3% 80.0% 1.15× 1.08
Over 2.5 goals 77.6% 77.4% 57.1% 1.36× 1.29
Under 5.5 goals 77.0% 77.4% 92.7% 0.83× 1.29
Under 4.5 goals 61.0% 61.7% 82.3% 0.75× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 58.5% 58.8% 31.9% 1.85× 1.70
Under 3.5 goals 41.5% 41.2% 68.1% 0.60× 2.43
Over 4.5 goals 39.0% 38.3% 17.8% 2.16× 2.61
Over 5.5 goals 23.0% 22.6% 7.3% 3.10× 4.42
Under 2.5 goals 22.4% 22.6% 42.9% 0.53× 4.42
Under 1.5 goals 8.7% 7.7% 20.0% 0.39× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 1.4% 4.5% 4.8% 0.95× 22.23
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 89.9% 86.8% 74.1% 1.17× 1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 86.5% 86.7% 97.3% 0.89× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 72.6% 72.6% 91.9% 0.79× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 72.3% 72.6% 42.6% 1.70× 1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 51.5% 51.8% 79.3% 0.65× 1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 48.5% 48.2% 20.7% 2.33× 2.07
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 27.7% 27.4% 57.4% 0.48× 3.65
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 27.4% 27.4% 8.1% 3.37× 3.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 13.5% 13.3% 2.7% 4.99× 7.53
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 10.1% 13.3% 25.9% 0.51× 7.55
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 82.0% 86.4% 1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half 75.4% 78.6% 1.27
Over 1.5 in 1st half 51.0% 56.2% 1.78
Under 1.5 in 1st half 49.0% 43.8% 2.28
Over 2.5 in 1st half 24.6% 21.4% 4.67
Under 0.5 in 1st half 18.0% 13.6% 7.36
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 90.9% 89.1% 1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 68.8% 67.2% 1.49
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 57.4% 54.9% 1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 42.6% 45.1% 2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 31.2% 32.8% 3.05
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 9.1% 10.9% 9.16
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town not to score in both halves 69.2% 70.2% 1.43
Boreham Wood not to score in both halves 51.4% 56.5% 1.77
Boreham Wood to score in both halves 48.6% 43.5% 2.30
Harrogate Town to score in both halves 30.8% 29.8% 3.35
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 73.7% 66.6% 57.2% 1.16× 1.50
Only Boreham Wood scores 17.5% 16.1% 21.9% 0.74× 6.20
Only Harrogate Town scores 7.4% 7.2% 16.5% 0.44× 13.94
Neither team scores 1.4% 4.6% 4.8% 0.96× 21.83
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 23.0% 22.6% 7.3% 3.11× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 19.5% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 19.1% 17.5% 25.4% 0.69× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 16.0% 17.4% 10.6% 1.64× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 13.7% 12.1% 23.1% 0.52× 8.29
Exactly 1 goals 7.3% 7.6% 15.4% 0.50× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 1.4% 4.4% 4.8% 0.93× 22.65
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 68.8% 58.8% 1.70
1 goal in 2nd half 22.1% 23.4% 4.27
No goals in 2nd half 9.1% 10.4% 9.65
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town not to win both halves 93.7% 94.0% 1.06
Boreham Wood not to win both halves 79.9% 75.6% 1.32
Boreham Wood to win both halves 20.1% 24.4% 4.09
Harrogate Town to win both halves 6.3% 6.0% 16.66
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood to win either half 69.7% 67.9% 1.47
Harrogate Town to win neither half 55.9% 59.4% 1.68
Harrogate Town to win either half 44.1% 40.6% 2.46
Boreham Wood to win neither half 30.3% 32.1% 3.12
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harrogate Town not to win to nil 92.6% 92.0% 83.5% 1.10× 1.09
Boreham Wood not to win to nil 82.5% 83.0% 78.1% 1.06× 1.21
Boreham Wood to win to nil 17.5% 17.0% 21.9% 0.78× 5.88
Harrogate Town to win to nil 7.4% 8.0% 16.5% 0.48× 12.57
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boreham Wood by 1 20.3% 24.1% 23.3% 1.04× 4.14
Boreham Wood by 3+ 18.6% 16.9% 10.3% 1.65× 5.90
Draw 18.7% 16.9% 22.8% 0.74× 5.90
Boreham Wood by 2 16.0% 16.9% 10.5% 1.62× 5.90
Harrogate Town by 1 14.0% 11.8% 17.6% 0.67× 8.46
Harrogate Town by 2 7.5% 7.2% 10.1% 0.71× 13.80
Harrogate Town by 3+ 4.8% 2.7% 6.2% 0.44× 36.91
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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