Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+0.60 – +1.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
27.3%
Draw
22.3%
Bayern Munich win
50.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.55–2.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.58–2.15 | 1-2 9% | 72% | 70% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 1.40 xGBayern Munich 1.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 10' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 15' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 23' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 23' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 25' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.42 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Daniel Svensson |
| 33' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabio Silva |
| 44' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 45' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Kane |
| 49' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 53' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Serge Gnabry |
| 54' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 55' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabio Silva |
| 56' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Yan Couto | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Karim Adeyemi |
| 65' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 69' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 80' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 82' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 83' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 85' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 86' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Samuele Inácio | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 92' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| Yan Couto DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.54 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Karim Adeyemi AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| Fabio Silva FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| Emre Can DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ramy Bensebaini Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Serhou Guirassy Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Samuele Inácio Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Brandt Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| Jobe Bellingham Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.34 | 0.02 | 0.72 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Konrad Laimer DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 69 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| Jamal Musiala Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Leon Goretzka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kim Min-Jae Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |