Borussia Dortmund v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 6
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.76
Goals − xG
+1.76 – +0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
46.2%
Draw
24.2%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
29.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.81–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 1.24 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Julian Weigl | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Niklas Süle | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 18' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 23' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Ko Itakura | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pascal Groß |
| 43' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Karim Adeyemi |
| 45' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Daniel Svensson | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carney Chukwuemeka |
| 55' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 59' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Yan Couto | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carney Chukwuemeka |
| 60' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carney Chukwuemeka |
| 64' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 82' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 87' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Pascal Groß | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Alassane Pléa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Stöger AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ko Itakura DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Alassane Pléa AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Kleindienst FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Omlin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Weigl DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Rocco Reitz DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Scally DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tomás Cvancara AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Hack Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Lainer Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shio Fukuda Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Neuhaus Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.66 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Pascal Groß MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.55 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ramy Bensebaini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.36 |
| Karim Adeyemi AMC | 77 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Niklas Süle DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Yan Couto DMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Ryerson Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Julian Brandt Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emre Can Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Salih Özcan Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |