Borussia Dortmund v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 19 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 6
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.35 – -0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
62.4%
Draw
21.1%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
16.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.12–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.26–1.19 | 2-1 10% | 67% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 1.65 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 0.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Niklas Süle |
| 11' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 28' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 35' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 38' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 39' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Giovanni Reyna | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 47' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Karim Adeyemi |
| 60' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Nmecha |
| 66' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 79' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Wael Mohya | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Netz |
| 83' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 93' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 96' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fabio Silva |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Netz DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Florian Neuhaus AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Reyna AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Grant-Leon Ranos Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wael Mohya Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.20 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emre Can DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Niklas Süle DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1.38 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Julian Brandt AMC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0.97 |
| Pascal Groß MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Karim Adeyemi AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Maximilian Beier Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.03 | 0.69 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcel Sabitzer Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Yan Couto Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |