Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 8 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.40 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.05 – +1.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Borussia Dortmund win
61.8%
Draw
20.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
17.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.06–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.13–1.04 | 2-1 10% | 62% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Borussia Dortmund 2.95 xGEintracht Frankfurt 0.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Borussia Dortmund attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mahmoud Dahoud |
| 14' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 16' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Samuele Inácio | 0.53 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 17' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Luca Reggiani | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 18' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 24' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 24' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcel Sabitzer |
| 26' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 38' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 41' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Julian Ryerson |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Maximilian Beier |
| 55' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 58' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.35 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 61' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 67' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nico Schlotterbeck |
| 70' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Schlotterbeck |
| 71' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Samuele Inácio | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maximilian Beier |
| 85' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 86' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.62 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuele Inácio AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.66 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.76 | 0.94 |
| Luca Reggiani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Maximilian Beier DML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.94 |
| Julian Brandt AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.59 | 0.94 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Felix Nmecha Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Salih Özcan Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Süle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ellyes Skhiri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Aurèle Amenda DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ritsu Doan AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Can Uzun AMC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Farès Chaïbi AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud DMC | 60 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Jean Négoce Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Mario Götze Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Burkardt Sub | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.06 | 0.68 |