Borussia Dortmund v Elversberg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Borussia Dortmund

14:30 UTC

Elversberg

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 411h before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund win

64.5%

model 67.5%

Draw

17.8%

model 17.1%

Elversberg win

17.7%

model 15.4%

641818

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.2%
2-0 7.9%
3-1 7.9%
1-1 7.2%
3-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	71.8%	Under 2.5	28.2%
BTTS yes	63.4%	BTTS no	36.6%
Borussia Dortmund 1+	92.2%	Borussia Dortmund 2+	72.4%
Elversberg 1+	68.8%	Elversberg 2+	32.4%

Expected goals 2.56 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

87/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 in 2nd half

2nd half home goals O/U · usually 26%

58.0% fair odds 1.72

strong signal · 736 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Borussia Dortmund or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 74%

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger rating, 1743 Elo against 1613.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Borussia Dortmund have an estimated 64.5% win probability, against 17.8% for the draw and 17.7% for Elversberg. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.56 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.16 for Elversberg.

Why Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger rating, 1743 Elo against 1613. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.8%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Elversberg can win

Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Borussia Dortmund were missing 0.79 expected goal involvements a match against 0.29.

Key players

Borussia Dortmund's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Serhou Guirassy (0.61), Maximilian Beier (0.39), Julian Ryerson (0.36). Elversberg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lukas Petkov (0.44), David Mokwa (0.30), Maurice Krattenmacher (0.24).

Availability

Nothing reported for either side.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Borussia Dortmund: 57% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Elversberg: 47% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 22.8 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces. Borussia Dortmund's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Borussia Dortmund are the model's most likely outcome at 64.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.2%. Confidence 87/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLWWWWWWDD last 10 scored 20 from 22.0 xG conceded 7 from 10.7 xG

Elversberg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDLW last 6 scored 12 from 10.5 xG conceded 11 from 14.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	671715	2.56–1.16	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	761411	3.00–1.10	2-1 8%	78%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to win	73.7%	73.8%	42.1%	1.76×	1.35
Draw	15.6%	19.4%	24.7%	0.78×	5.16
Elversberg to win	10.7%	13.4%	33.4%	0.40×	7.44

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund & not both score	38.0%	33.3%	19.9%	1.67×	3.00
Borussia Dortmund & both teams score	35.7%	33.3%	22.3%	1.49×	3.01
Draw & both teams score	12.5%	13.3%	19.0%	0.70×	7.54
Elversberg & both teams score	6.2%	8.3%	18.4%	0.45×	12.02
Elversberg & not both score	4.5%	4.9%	15.1%	0.32×	20.56
Draw & not both score	3.1%	4.9%	5.8%	0.83×	20.60

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund & over 1.5	65.7%	67.5%	35.8%	1.89×	1.48
Borussia Dortmund & over 2.5	55.3%	54.8%	29.9%	1.83×	1.83
Borussia Dortmund & over 3.5	37.1%	34.9%	20.4%	1.71×	2.87
Borussia Dortmund & under 3.5	36.6%	34.9%	21.9%	1.60×	2.87
Borussia Dortmund & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	12.3%	1.47×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	12.5%	12.8%	19.0%	0.68×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	10.3%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	10.3%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Borussia Dortmund & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Elversberg & over 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	27.5%	0.29×	12.63
Elversberg & under 3.5	7.5%	7.9%	19.5%	0.41×	12.63
Elversberg & over 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	23.4%	0.34×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.3%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.3%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Elversberg & under 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	10.2%	0.47×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.1%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.82
Elversberg & over 3.5	3.1%	4.8%	14.1%	0.34×	20.82
Elversberg & under 1.5	2.8%	4.8%	6.0%	0.80×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (1UP)	83.2%	87.7%	60.1%	1.46×	1.14
Elversberg (1UP)	28.7%	27.2%	52.2%	0.52×	3.68

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (2UP)	73.7%	81.4%	45.4%	1.79×	1.23
Elversberg (2UP)	10.7%	13.8%	36.4%	0.38×	7.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to win 2nd half	72.8%	76.3%	37.5%	2.04×	1.31
2nd half drawn	20.8%	24.1%	33.6%	0.72×	4.14
Elversberg to win 2nd half	6.5%	6.4%	29.1%	0.22×	15.65

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 2nd half	95.4%	92.9%	79.5%	1.17×	1.08
Elversberg under 0.5 in 2nd half	71.4%	75.2%	43.5%	1.73×	1.33
Elversberg over 0.5 in 2nd half	28.6%	24.8%	56.5%	0.44×	4.03
Elversberg over 1.5 in 2nd half	4.6%	7.1%	20.5%	0.34×	14.12

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.8%	82.5%	63.1%	1.31×	1.21
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.4%	55.1%	25.6%	2.15×	1.82
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.6%	44.9%	74.4%	0.60×	2.23
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.2%	17.5%	36.9%	0.47×	5.72

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (+0.5)	89.3%	88.5%	66.6%	1.33×	1.13
Borussia Dortmund (-0.5)	73.7%	73.7%	42.1%	1.75×	1.36
Elversberg (+2.5)	68.8%	68.7%	88.0%	0.78×	1.46
Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)	52.2%	52.4%	24.6%	2.13×	1.91
Elversberg (+1.5)	47.8%	47.6%	75.4%	0.63×	2.10
Borussia Dortmund (-2.5)	31.2%	31.3%	12.0%	2.62×	3.19
Elversberg (+0.5)	26.3%	26.3%	57.9%	0.45×	3.80
Elversberg (-0.5)	10.7%	11.5%	33.4%	0.35×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede	92.4%	91.9%	79.2%	1.16×	1.09
Elversberg clean sheet	7.6%	8.1%	20.8%	0.39×	12.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede in 1st half	56.0%	56.9%	51.9%	1.10×	1.76
Elversberg clean sheet in 1st half	44.0%	43.1%	48.1%	0.90×	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede in 2nd half	82.8%	81.0%	63.1%	1.28×	1.24
Elversberg clean sheet in 2nd half	17.2%	19.0%	36.9%	0.52×	5.25

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 6.5 corners	88.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Elversberg under 5.5 corners	79.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Elversberg over 2.5 corners	68.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Elversberg under 4.5 corners	67.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Elversberg under 3.5 corners	50.5%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Elversberg over 3.5 corners	49.5%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Elversberg over 4.5 corners	33.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Elversberg under 2.5 corners	32.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Elversberg over 5.5 corners	20.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Elversberg over 6.5 corners	11.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 3.5 goals	98.7%	97.5%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
Elversberg under 2.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	79.2%	1.17×	1.08
Elversberg under 1.5 goals	77.7%	76.3%	57.2%	1.33×	1.31
Elversberg over 0.5 goals	58.9%	59.4%	74.4%	0.80×	1.68
Elversberg under 0.5 goals	41.1%	40.6%	25.6%	1.59×	2.46
Elversberg over 1.5 goals	22.3%	23.7%	42.8%	0.55×	4.21
Elversberg over 2.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	20.8%	0.37×	13.07
Elversberg over 3.5 goals	1.3%	2.5%	7.3%	0.34×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 1st half	89.4%	89.4%	85.8%	1.04×	1.12
Elversberg under 0.5 in 1st half	57.7%	62.0%	54.4%	1.14×	1.61
Elversberg over 0.5 in 1st half	42.3%	38.0%	45.6%	0.83×	2.63
Elversberg over 1.5 in 1st half	10.6%	10.6%	14.2%	0.74×	9.44

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg scores equally in both	49.2%	48.3%	39.6%	1.22×	2.07
Elversberg scores more in 1st half	32.8%	33.7%	24.1%	1.39×	2.97
Elversberg scores more in 2nd half	18.0%	18.0%	36.4%	0.49×	5.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (away no bet)	82.6%	82.7%	63.0%	1.31×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	17.4%	17.3%	37.0%	0.47×	5.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg even goals	58.5%	57.0%	53.6%	1.06×	1.76
Elversberg odd goals	41.5%	43.0%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	75.4%	81.2%	75.3%	1.08×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	24.6%	18.8%	24.7%	0.76×	5.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.1%	72.4%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.9%	27.6%	27.7%	0.99×	3.62

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	72.8%	72.1%	66.4%	1.09×	1.39
Borussia Dortmund to score 2+ in a row	66.1%	62.3%	42.6%	1.46×	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	39.3%	36.7%	29.2%	1.26×	2.73
Borussia Dortmund to score 3+ in a row	37.3%	36.6%	17.8%	2.05×	2.73
Elversberg to score 2+ in a row	13.4%	12.1%	34.3%	0.35×	8.29
Elversberg to score 3+ in a row	2.3%	2.5%	12.3%	0.21×	39.29

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund corners (+3.5)	94.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Borussia Dortmund corners (+2.5)	90.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Borussia Dortmund corners (+1.5)	84.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Elversberg corners (+3.5)	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Borussia Dortmund corners (-1.5)	57.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Elversberg corners (+2.5)	53.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Borussia Dortmund corners (-2.5)	46.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Elversberg corners (+1.5)	42.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Borussia Dortmund corners (-3.5)	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Elversberg corners (-1.5)	15.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Elversberg corners (-2.5)	9.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Elversberg corners (-3.5)	5.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	31.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	40.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	39.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	31.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	23.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	12.0%	11.5%	5.8%	1.96×	8.72
2-0	10.4%	11.5%	6.0%	1.91×	8.72
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.50
3-0	8.9%	7.4%	2.7%	2.75×	13.50
1-0	8.1%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
1-1	7.2%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
3-1	7.9%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.50
4-0	5.8%	7.4%	3.4%	2.15×	13.51
4-1	5.1%	7.4%	2.1%	3.53×	13.51
0-0	3.1%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.30
0-1	2.8%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.30
0-2	1.2%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.32
1-2	3.2%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.30
1-3	0.9%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.32
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.30
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.32
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.32
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	3.82×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (2nd half DNB)	91.8%	92.9%	56.3%	1.65×	1.08
Elversberg (2nd half DNB)	8.2%	7.1%	43.7%	0.16×	14.08

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund leading at HT (DNB)	63.2%	65.7%	55.6%	1.18×	1.52
Elversberg leading at HT (DNB)	36.8%	34.3%	44.4%	0.77×	2.92

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw (1X)	89.3%	86.6%	66.6%	1.30×	1.16
Borussia Dortmund or Elversberg (12)	84.4%	80.6%	75.3%	1.07×	1.24
Elversberg or draw (X2)	26.3%	26.2%	57.9%	0.45×	3.82

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw at HT	77.2%	79.1%	70.6%	1.12×	1.27
Borussia Dortmund or Elversberg at HT	61.8%	61.6%	66.0%	0.93×	1.62
Elversberg or draw at HT	61.0%	61.6%	63.3%	0.97×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw (1UP)	89.3%	92.2%	73.8%	1.25×	1.08
Elversberg or draw (1UP)	28.7%	31.9%	64.6%	0.49×	3.14

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund or draw in 2nd half	93.5%	93.6%	70.9%	1.32×	1.07
Borussia Dortmund or Elversberg in 2nd half	79.2%	75.9%	66.4%	1.14×	1.32
Elversberg or draw in 2nd half	27.2%	23.7%	62.5%	0.38×	4.22

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	49.0%	50.1%	46.0%	1.09×	2.00
A half drawn	51.0%	49.9%	54.0%	0.92×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (DNB)	87.3%	87.1%	55.8%	1.56×	1.15
Elversberg (DNB)	12.7%	12.9%	44.2%	0.29×	7.76

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score first	72.1%	75.3%	51.1%	1.47×	1.33
Elversberg to score first	24.8%	23.3%	43.2%	0.54×	4.30
No goal scored	3.1%	4.3%	5.8%	0.73×	23.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.4%	51.3%	59.4%	0.86×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.6%	48.7%	40.6%	1.20×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.2%	44.3%	50.2%	0.88×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	25.6%	33.3%	28.0%	1.19×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	20.0%	27.7%	12.7%	2.18×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	7.2%	8.3%	9.4%	0.88×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.7%	82.6%	79.3%	1.04×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.3%	17.4%	20.7%	0.84×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.3%	74.2%	65.1%	1.14×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.7%	25.8%	34.9%	0.74×	3.88

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.2%	60.0%	51.3%	1.17×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	18.1%	15.1%	28.3%	0.53×	6.64
Both score 1st half only	18.1%	15.1%	13.9%	1.08×	6.64
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.8%	6.7%	1.00×	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.3%	81.2%	79.5%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.7%	18.8%	20.5%	0.92×	5.31

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	65.4%	66.3%	67.5%	0.98×	1.51
A half without a goal	34.6%	33.7%	32.5%	1.04×	2.96

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	40.5%	42.1%	38.3%	1.10×	2.38
4-6 goals	39.5%	35.1%	39.7%	0.89×	2.85
0-1 goals	13.9%	16.9%	18.0%	0.94×	5.91
7+ goals	6.1%	7.6%	4.3%	1.75×	13.16

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to score exactly 0	41.1%	37.3%	25.6%	1.46×	2.68
Elversberg to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	31.7%	1.13×	2.78
Elversberg to score exactly 2	16.2%	19.6%	22.2%	0.88×	5.11
Elversberg to score 3+	6.1%	8.5%	20.8%	0.41×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score 3+	47.6%	37.4%	27.5%	1.36×	2.67
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.5%	23.2%	1.14×	3.77
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 1	19.6%	18.8%	28.7%	0.65×	5.33
Borussia Dortmund to score exactly 0	7.6%	10.3%	20.8%	0.50×	9.71

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund leading at HT	39.0%	38.4%	36.7%	1.05×	2.60
Draw at HT	38.2%	38.4%	34.0%	1.13×	2.60
Elversberg leading at HT	22.8%	20.9%	29.4%	0.71×	4.78

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund -1: 1	52.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Borussia Dortmund -1: 2	26.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Borussia Dortmund -1: X	21.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (0:1)	52.2%	51.3%	24.6%	2.09×	1.95
Elversberg (0:1)	26.3%	27.0%	57.9%	0.47×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.6%	24.2%	17.7%	1.37×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (0:2)	47.8%	51.2%	75.4%	0.68×	1.95
Borussia Dortmund (0:2)	31.2%	28.6%	12.0%	2.39×	3.50
Draw (0:2)	21.0%	20.3%	12.7%	1.59×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (0:3)	68.8%	72.0%	88.0%	0.82×	1.39
Borussia Dortmund (0:3)	15.7%	16.1%	7.2%	2.24×	6.22
Draw (0:3)	15.4%	16.1%	4.9%	3.25×	6.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (0:4)	84.3%	87.4%	92.8%	0.94×	1.14
Draw (0:4)	9.0%	4.7%	4.9%	0.94×	21.48
Borussia Dortmund (0:4)	6.8%	4.6%	2.4%	1.93×	21.68

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (1:0)	89.3%	86.2%	66.6%	1.29×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	7.4%	6.9%	16.6%	0.42×	14.50
Elversberg (1:0)	3.3%	3.3%	16.9%	0.19×	30.59

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund (2:0)	96.7%	96.8%	83.1%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	9.9%	0.23×	43.68
Elversberg (2:0)	0.8%	2.3%	7.2%	0.32×	43.78

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	54.1%	50.3%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	24.9%	24.4%	25.9%	0.94×	4.10
Halves equal	21.0%	24.3%	26.8%	0.91×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to concede	58.9%	60.7%	74.4%	0.82×	1.65
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet	41.1%	39.3%	25.6%	1.54×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet in 1st half	57.7%	62.0%	54.4%	1.14×	1.61
Borussia Dortmund to concede in 1st half	42.3%	38.0%	45.6%	0.83×	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet in 2nd half	71.4%	71.6%	43.5%	1.65×	1.40
Borussia Dortmund to concede in 2nd half	28.6%	28.4%	56.5%	0.50×	3.52

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 corners	89.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 corners	79.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Borussia Dortmund over 4.5 corners	66.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Borussia Dortmund under 6.5 corners	59.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Borussia Dortmund over 5.5 corners	53.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Borussia Dortmund under 5.5 corners	46.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Borussia Dortmund over 6.5 corners	40.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Borussia Dortmund under 4.5 corners	33.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 corners	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Borussia Dortmund under 2.5 corners	10.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 goals	92.4%	92.2%	79.2%	1.16×	1.08
Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 goals	74.2%	74.3%	88.3%	0.84×	1.35
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals	72.8%	74.2%	50.6%	1.47×	1.35
Borussia Dortmund under 2.5 goals	52.4%	53.2%	72.5%	0.73×	1.88
Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 goals	47.6%	46.8%	27.5%	1.70×	2.14
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 goals	27.2%	25.8%	49.4%	0.52×	3.88
Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals	25.8%	25.7%	11.7%	2.21×	3.88
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 goals	7.6%	7.8%	20.8%	0.37×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund under 1.5 in 1st half	80.1%	83.6%	80.5%	1.04×	1.20
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5 in 1st half	56.0%	56.7%	51.9%	1.09×	1.77
Borussia Dortmund under 0.5 in 1st half	44.0%	43.4%	48.1%	0.90×	2.31
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 in 1st half	19.9%	16.4%	19.5%	0.84×	6.09

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund scores more in 2nd half	59.6%	59.7%	38.2%	1.56×	1.68
Borussia Dortmund scores equally in both	23.2%	21.2%	36.7%	0.58×	4.71
Borussia Dortmund scores more in 1st half	17.2%	15.2%	25.2%	0.60×	6.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.3%	56.5%	42.5%	1.33×	1.77
Elversberg (home no bet)	40.7%	43.5%	57.5%	0.76×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund even goals	50.3%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Borussia Dortmund odd goals	49.7%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.4%	27.9%	23.1%	1.21×	3.58
HT 1-0	20.8%	24.4%	19.2%	1.27×	4.10
HT 0-1	14.0%	11.0%	16.6%	0.66×	9.06
HT 1-1	11.5%	11.0%	9.7%	1.13×	9.08
HT 2-0	8.5%	6.9%	9.4%	0.73×	14.47
Any other HT score	6.8%	6.9%	6.9%	1.00×	14.49
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.4%	4.2%	0.57×	41.97
HT 0-2	3.8%	2.4%	7.2%	0.33×	42.03
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.07
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.4%	1.3%	1.76×	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	37.3%	41.7%	28.2%	1.48×	2.40
Draw at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	27.8%	27.2%	10.9%	2.49×	3.67
Elversberg at HT / Borussia Dortmund at FT	8.7%	6.0%	3.3%	1.83×	16.58
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	7.9%	6.0%	13.6%	0.44×	16.60
Elversberg at HT / Elversberg at FT	8.0%	6.0%	20.4%	0.30×	16.60
Elversberg at HT / Draw at FT	6.1%	6.0%	6.0%	1.00×	16.65
Draw at HT / Elversberg at FT	2.5%	3.5%	9.7%	0.36×	28.67
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Draw at FT	1.5%	3.5%	5.2%	0.66×	28.71
Borussia Dortmund at HT / Elversberg at FT	0.3%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.76

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to score last	72.0%	72.9%	49.9%	1.46×	1.37
Elversberg to score last	24.8%	26.1%	44.4%	0.59×	3.83
No goal scored	3.1%	4.3%	5.8%	0.73×	23.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.9%	95.7%	94.2%	1.02×	1.05
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 1 at any time	83.2%	87.7%	60.1%	1.46×	1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.3%	69.3%	55.6%	1.25×	1.44
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 2 at any time	58.7%	54.9%	33.0%	1.67×	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	36.3%	34.6%	25.5%	1.36×	2.89
Borussia Dortmund to lead by 3 at any time	34.8%	29.9%	15.7%	1.90×	3.34
Elversberg to lead by 1 at any time	28.7%	25.6%	52.2%	0.49×	3.91
Elversberg to lead by 2 at any time	7.0%	6.7%	23.4%	0.29×	14.93
Elversberg to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	9.9%	0.16×	63.29

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund most corners	68.1%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Elversberg most corners	22.7%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	9.3%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.2%	83.4%	82.9%	1.01×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.0%	78.7%	77.8%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	70.8%	1.02×	1.38
1-4 goals	70.2%	72.4%	72.0%	1.00×	1.38
3-6 goals	61.2%	63.3%	58.5%	1.08×	1.58
2-4 goals	59.3%	59.1%	59.9%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.6%	53.2%	51.5%	1.03×	1.88
1-3 goals	51.3%	53.2%	50.4%	1.05×	1.88
3-4 goals	40.6%	43.6%	40.6%	1.07×	2.30
2-3 goals	40.5%	43.6%	38.3%	1.14×	2.30
4-6 goals	39.5%	39.2%	39.7%	0.99×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.9%	35.2%	32.6%	1.08×	2.84
1-2 goals	29.6%	30.2%	31.6%	0.96×	3.31
5-6 goals	20.6%	24.5%	18.1%	1.35×	4.09
7+ goals	6.1%	8.9%	4.3%	2.04×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund never behind	68.2%	69.5%	47.8%	1.45×	1.44
Elversberg never behind	13.7%	12.4%	39.9%	0.31×	8.10

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	45.7%	1.12×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	54.3%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.6%	52.5%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.4%	47.5%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.9%	53.1%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.1%	46.9%	1.03×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.9%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	86.4%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	86.1%	87.6%	82.0%	1.07×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	73.3%	72.5%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.3%	66.3%	62.7%	1.06×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	54.5%	52.5%	56.1%	0.94×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	45.6%	47.5%	43.9%	1.08×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	32.7%	33.7%	37.3%	0.90×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	26.7%	27.5%	22.3%	1.23×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	13.9%	12.4%	18.0%	0.69×	8.06
Over 5.5 goals	13.6%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.1%	4.6%	5.8%	0.78×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.4%	92.4%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	84.3%	81.1%	87.2%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	82.8%	81.1%	77.7%	1.04×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	67.1%	67.4%	71.6%	0.94×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	58.2%	55.8%	54.1%	1.03×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.8%	44.2%	45.9%	0.96×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	32.9%	32.6%	28.4%	1.15×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	17.2%	18.9%	22.3%	0.85×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	15.7%	18.9%	12.8%	1.48×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.6%	7.6%	4.7%	1.63×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.0%	85.9%	84.6%	1.02×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.6%	71.9%	76.9%	0.93×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.2%	63.1%	58.6%	1.08×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.8%	36.9%	41.4%	0.89×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.4%	28.1%	23.1%	1.22×	3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.0%	14.1%	15.4%	0.92×	7.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.7%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	68.5%	73.0%	0.94×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	61.9%	61.6%	55.6%	1.11×	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	38.1%	38.5%	44.4%	0.87×	2.60
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	31.5%	27.0%	1.17×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.3%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to score in both halves	87.9%	85.4%	72.3%	1.18×	1.17
Borussia Dortmund not to score in both halves	53.7%	55.5%	64.2%	0.86×	1.80
Borussia Dortmund to score in both halves	46.3%	44.5%	35.8%	1.24×	2.25
Elversberg to score in both halves	12.1%	14.6%	27.7%	0.53×	6.85

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.4%	53.9%	59.4%	0.91×	1.86
Only Borussia Dortmund scores	38.0%	39.9%	19.9%	2.00×	2.51
Only Elversberg scores	4.5%	4.6%	15.1%	0.31×	21.66
Neither team scores	3.1%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.71

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	19.0%	1.19×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	18.8%	17.5%	19.5%	0.90×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.8%	17.5%	21.7%	0.80×	5.73
6 or more goals	13.6%	12.1%	11.4%	1.07×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	13.1%	12.1%	11.1%	1.10×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	10.8%	12.1%	12.3%	0.99×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.1%	4.5%	5.8%	0.76×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.8%	35.9%	35.7%	1.01×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.4%	28.2%	23.1%	1.22×	3.55
2 goals in 1st half	23.9%	21.5%	26.1%	0.83×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	16.0%	15.6%	15.4%	1.01×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	61.9%	58.6%	55.6%	1.05×	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	25.8%	29.2%	29.2%	1.00×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	12.3%	14.3%	15.3%	0.93×	7.01

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to win both halves	98.5%	97.2%	90.9%	1.07×	1.03
Borussia Dortmund not to win both halves	71.6%	72.5%	84.0%	0.86×	1.38
Borussia Dortmund to win both halves	28.4%	27.5%	16.0%	1.71×	3.64
Elversberg to win both halves	1.5%	2.8%	9.1%	0.30×	36.16

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund to win either half	83.4%	83.7%	58.2%	1.44×	1.20
Elversberg to win neither half	72.3%	73.0%	50.7%	1.44×	1.37
Elversberg to win either half	27.7%	27.0%	49.3%	0.55×	3.71
Borussia Dortmund to win neither half	16.6%	16.3%	41.8%	0.39×	6.13

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to win to nil	95.5%	96.1%	84.9%	1.13×	1.04
Borussia Dortmund not to win to nil	62.0%	66.6%	80.1%	0.83×	1.50
Borussia Dortmund to win to nil	38.0%	33.4%	19.9%	1.68×	2.99
Elversberg to win to nil	4.5%	3.9%	15.1%	0.26×	25.60

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Borussia Dortmund by 3+	31.2%	27.7%	12.0%	2.31×	3.62
Borussia Dortmund by 1	21.6%	24.1%	17.7%	1.36×	4.15
Borussia Dortmund by 2	21.0%	24.1%	12.7%	1.89×	4.15
Draw	15.6%	17.0%	24.7%	0.69×	5.87
Elversberg by 1	7.4%	7.2%	16.6%	0.43×	13.91
Elversberg by 2	2.5%	2.7%	9.9%	0.27×	36.83
Elversberg by 3+	0.8%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	36.88