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Borussia Dortmund v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated

Borussia Dortmund
3–2
4.14 – 3.04 xG
FC Heidenheim
Shots
19 – 12
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 10
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
2.68 – 1.32
Goals − xG
-1.14 – -1.33

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Borussia Dortmund win
73.3%
Draw
18.3%
FC Heidenheim win
8.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLLWLWWWW last 10 scored 20 from 22.3 xG conceded 10 from 12.7 xG

FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LLDDWLWDWL last 10 scored 19 from 17.3 xG conceded 19 from 18.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 2.37–0.72 0% 0% 0% Home ✓
dc-xg-oos 2.58–0.88 2-0 11% 67% 54% Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.22.33.54.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Waldemar Anton 43' — goalJulian Niehues 47' — goalJulian Niehues 49' — goalSerhou Guirassy 67' — goalSerhou Guirassy 68' — goal
Borussia Dortmund 4.14 xGFC Heidenheim 3.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Serhou Guirassy 13' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jobe Bellingham 15' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Serhou Guirassy 21' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Karim Adeyemi 24' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Eren Sami Dinkci 25' — Saved Shot (0.47 xG, Open Play)Julian Brandt 26' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Felix Nmecha 27' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nico Schlotterbeck 29' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, From Corner)Serhou Guirassy 37' — Shot On Post (0.41 xG, Open Play)Felix Nmecha 39' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Waldemar Anton 43' — Goal (0.57 xG, From Corner)Hennes Behrens 45' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jobe Bellingham 46' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Serhou Guirassy 46' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Julian Niehues 47' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Julian Niehues 49' — Blocked Shot (0.49 xG, Open Play)Julian Niehues 49' — Goal (0.58 xG, Open Play)Eren Sami Dinkci 50' — Missed Shot (0.22 xG, Set Piece)Julian Niehues 55' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Marvin Pieringer 57' — Missed Shot (0.44 xG, From Corner)Felix Nmecha 61' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Serhou Guirassy 67' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Serhou Guirassy 68' — Goal (0.29 xG, Open Play)Nico Schlotterbeck 73' — Missed Shot (0.18 xG, From Corner)Carney Chukwuemeka 80' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Serhou Guirassy 84' — Missed Shot (0.76 xG, )Serhou Guirassy 85' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Sirlord Conteh 89' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Arijon Ibrahimovic 91' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Mikkel Kaufmann 95' — Missed Shot (0.57 xG, Set Piece)Jan Schöppner 97' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Borussia Dortmund attacking right FC Heidenheim attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
13' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
15' Borussia Dortmund Jobe Bellingham 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Julian Brandt
21' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot —
24' Borussia Dortmund Karim Adeyemi 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Julian Brandt
25' FC Heidenheim Eren Sami Dinkci 0.47 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
26' Borussia Dortmund Julian Brandt 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Daniel Svensson
27' Borussia Dortmund Felix Nmecha 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Karim Adeyemi
29' Borussia Dortmund Nico Schlotterbeck 0.38 From Corner — Missed Shot Yan Couto
37' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Julian Brandt
39' Borussia Dortmund Felix Nmecha 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Julian Brandt
43' Borussia Dortmund Waldemar Anton 0.57 From Corner Right Foot Goal —
45' FC Heidenheim Hennes Behrens 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Patrick Mainka
46' Borussia Dortmund Jobe Bellingham 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Serhou Guirassy
46' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yan Couto
47' FC Heidenheim Julian Niehues 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal Eren Sami Dinkci
49' FC Heidenheim Julian Niehues 0.49 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mathias Honsak
49' FC Heidenheim Julian Niehues 0.58 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
50' FC Heidenheim Eren Sami Dinkci 0.22 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Niklas Dorsch
55' FC Heidenheim Julian Niehues 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Arijon Ibrahimovic
57' FC Heidenheim Marvin Pieringer 0.44 From Corner — Missed Shot Hennes Behrens
61' Borussia Dortmund Felix Nmecha 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Carney Chukwuemeka
67' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
68' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Goal Maximilian Beier
73' Borussia Dortmund Nico Schlotterbeck 0.18 From Corner — Missed Shot —
80' Borussia Dortmund Carney Chukwuemeka 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Julian Brandt
84' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.76 Right Foot Missed Shot —
85' Borussia Dortmund Serhou Guirassy 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Carney Chukwuemeka
89' FC Heidenheim Sirlord Conteh 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Stefan Schimmer
91' FC Heidenheim Arijon Ibrahimovic 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marnon Busch
95' FC Heidenheim Mikkel Kaufmann 0.57 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Arijon Ibrahimovic
97' FC Heidenheim Jan Schöppner 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Mikkel Kaufmann

Players

Borussia Dortmund

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Serhou Guirassy FW 90 2 0 8 1 2.54 0.08 1.12
Waldemar Anton DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.57 0.00 0.33
Nico Schlotterbeck DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.56 0.00 0.38
Felix Nmecha MC 90 0 0 3 0 0.13 0.00 0.38
Julian Brandt AMC 90 0 0 1 5 0.12 0.60 1.17
Daniel Svensson DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.60
Gregor Kobel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Karim Adeyemi AMC 74 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.07 0.21
Jobe Bellingham MC 63 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.38
Yan Couto DMR 63 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.47 0.18
Filippo Mané DC 51 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Niklas Süle Sub 39 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carney Chukwuemeka Sub 27 0 0 1 2 0.10 0.16 0.55
Maximilian Beier Sub 27 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.29 0.43
Fabio Silva Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Salih Özcan Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

FC Heidenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Hennes Behrens DML 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.44 0.54
Patrick Mainka DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.88
Niklas Dorsch MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.22 0.86
Marnon Busch DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.33 0.33
Diant Ramaj GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Tim Siersleben DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eren Sami Dinkci FWR 85 0 1 2 1 0.69 0.03 0.50
Marvin Pieringer FW 85 0 0 1 0 0.44 0.00 0.00
Omar Traoré DMR 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Julian Niehues MC 75 2 0 4 0 1.15 0.00 1.10
Mathias Honsak FWL 51 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.49 0.49
Arijon Ibrahimovic Sub 39 0 0 1 2 0.33 0.61 0.42
Jan Schöppner Sub 15 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Mikkel Kaufmann Sub 5 0 0 1 1 0.57 0.05 0.05
Sirlord Conteh Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Stefan Schimmer Sub 5 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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